Bullets Forever: All Posts by Kevin Broom"Ain't No Luck"https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48097/BulletsForever-fv.png2024-03-28T07:00:00-04:00https://www.bulletsforever.com/authors/kevin-broom/rss2024-03-28T07:00:00-04:002024-03-28T07:00:00-04:00Breaking down the Wizards’ OT loss to the Nets
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<img alt="Brooklyn Nets v Washington Wizards" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/l8TOhuFFK8mZcWxNvDAolEvLrW4=/0x0:4737x3158/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73238264/2110568417.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Washington Wizards guard Jordan Poole made shots in the teams overtime loss to the Brooklyn Nets. | Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Stats, analysis, commentary.</p> <p id="wPPfx0">The longest winning streak of the <a href="https://www.bulletsforever.com">Washington Wizards</a>’ 2023-24 season ends at three with last night’s overtime loss to the <a href="https://www.netsdaily.com">Brooklyn Nets</a>. C’est la vie.</p>
<p id="LkrfYv">If you like wildly improbable winning streaks, you were rooting for the Wizards to pull this one out because next up on the schedule is the sad sack <a href="https://www.detroitbadboys.com">Detroit Pistons</a>. And my prediction machine has the Wizards <em>favored</em> against Detroit.</p>
<p id="3uGlT2">No such luck. Or <em>pas de chance</em> as they say in the land of <em>c’est la vie</em>.</p>
<p id="j4yv9Z">Last night’s game was like the Monday night win against the Chicago Bulls, only more-so. The Nets and Wizards are the 97-pound weaklings of the NBA (well, maybe the Nets are up to 108 or something), and both are effectively eliminated from postseason action, yet they scrapped and battled and competed. </p>
<p id="XxKNBW">Both teams are deeply flawed. Both had moments of bumbling ineptitude. Both exhibited flawed decision making. Both had key players out with injuries. In other words, it was a close and entertaining game between two bad teams.</p>
<p id="giLisc">The team that shoots better (measured by effective field goal percentage) wins about 80% of the time in the NBA. This was one of the 20%. Washington outshot the Nets 58.2% to 53.1%, but the Brooklyn was +5 on the offensive glass, committed five fewer turnovers, and made 18 free throws to Washington’s 13.</p>
<p id="RQ2Brp">For most of the season, Washington’s offensive struggles were often attributable to the poor efficiency of Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma. Last night, they cooked — combining for an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 134. They got offensive help from Marvin Bagley III (ortg: 166 on 19.1% usage), Deni Avdija (ortg: 119 on 20.9% usage), and kinda-sorta Anthony Gill (he scored five points in 16 minutes, which is heady stuff for him). </p>
<p id="SiWMu4">Altogether, that quintet used 77 possessions to produce 103 points. That’s an offensive rating of 134, which is terrific. The sextet of Wizards who also played combined to use 28 possessions to produce 16 points. That’s an ortg of 57. Which is horrific.</p>
<p id="1tTQ71">The primary culprit was Corey Kispert, who routinely draws the amazement of opposing broadcasts for his aggressive shot hunting, as well as the “great shooter” comments whenever he makes a shot. Less often do they mention the lack of other production (last night: two rebounds, zero assists, zero blocks, zero steals, two turnovers, two fouls in 40 minutes), or the fact that he shot just 2-8 from three.</p>
<h2 id="59CgMO">Musings & Observations</h2>
<ul>
<li id="gAA12b">Poole made shots — 15-24 from the field, 5-12 from three — grabbed seven rebounds and produced eight assists. He also had four turnovers and four fouls. The numbers convey a solidity to his game that wasn’t there when watching. He got hot for a stretch, and he had some very nice passes. His decision making was bad, but it mostly worked out for the night. There’s a reliably productive player in him, IF he would make better decisions, resist the urge for heat check shots, dribbles, and passes, and commit to stuff like getting back on defense and consistently executing the team’s force rules.</li>
<li id="5ITJJg">My general impression as I watched was that the Wizards work crazy hard on offense to get bad shots. Sometimes they make them at a decent rate (like last night). But that’s also a reason they’re 25th in offensive efficiency this season. Note: <em>working crazy hard</em> in this case doesn’t necessarily mean they’re working <em>together</em> by employing teamwork. Often the “hard work” comes in the form of mix tape dribbles and dances that don’t go anywhere and ultimately lead to forcing up a contested shot. They look great when they go in, but they generally don’t go in.</li>
<li id="g0rJK2">The Wizard are at minimal risk of falling out of the top three in lottery odds. The bottom three teams have the same chances of landing the top pick. Washington currently has the NBA’s second worst record. They’re ahead of the Detroit Pistons, and two games back of the <a href="https://www.poundingtherock.com">San Antonio Spurs</a>, who are third worst. Washington is four games behind (ahead?) of the Charlotte Hornets, who sit at fourth worst. With just nine games to play, it’s unlikely that Washington can drop out of the bottom three.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="vGa3TS">Four Factors</h2>
<p id="z5mSwN">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).</p>
<div id="jgCY44"><div data-anthem-component="table:12291531"></div></div>
<h2 id="wtIJQq">Stats & Metrics</h2>
<p id="Xct4Nf">Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).</p>
<p id="kHjT1g"><strong>Game Score (GmSC)</strong> converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s <em><strong>total contributions</strong></em> for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.</p>
<p id="SJgRQZ"><a href="https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/"><strong>PPA</strong></a><strong> </strong>is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.</p>
<p id="sGxA6c"><strong>POSS </strong>is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.</p>
<p id="WjtM8i"><strong>ORTG </strong>= offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.</p>
<p id="oYi44N"><strong>USG</strong> = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.</p>
<p id="uJY9cg">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.</p>
<p id="1Zo5Hb"><strong>+PTS </strong>= “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.</p>
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https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/3/28/24114225/washington-wizards-brooklyn-nets-nba-statistical-analysisKevin Broom2024-03-26T09:00:00-04:002024-03-26T09:00:00-04:00Breaking down the Wizards’ win against the Bulls
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<img alt="Washington Wizards v Chicago Bulls" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/K2Cr741e0a4CrQrq3zULjb6CGgQ=/0x0:6492x4328/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73233293/2113461134.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Washington Wizards wing Corey Kispert | Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Stats, analysis, commentary.</p> <p id="qGweV2">The Washington Wizards shrugged off the injury/illness related absences of Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones, and Bilal Coulibaly and beat the Chicago Bulls for their third straight victory. It’s the team’s first three-game winning streak since January 2023.</p>
<p id="oKtlSZ">This matchup with the Bulls was entertaining in its way. That is to say, if you’re entertained by seeing the flowing offenses that are proficient at making the ball go through the hoop, this one wasn’t for you. If you find entertainment in seeing tight competition between flawed players trying their best, this one was a delight.</p>
<p id="5LaPcW">If you give me a choice, I’ll take “beautiful game” most of the time. But I still love a hard fought game between guys working to overcome weaknesses and scrapping for a win.</p>
<p id="VWttRL">This game defies easy explanations. The Wizards definitely owe a lot of this win to stellar play in the middle. Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley III combined for 30 points on 18 shots, plus 17 rebounds, two assists, a steal and a block. Holmes had seven offensive rebounds, and a 14-9 offensive rebounding advantage was critical in a game this close.</p>
<p id="gJswO2">But the Bulls centers were terrific too. Andre Drummond came off the bench to post a double-double in his first 12 minutes of action. He finished with 10 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks in 19 minutes. Nikola Vucevic got just five field goal attempts (and still scored nine points), but contributed with 16 rebounds, three assists, and three blocks. The Bulls bigs combined for 19 points, 28 rebounds, four assists, and five blocks.</p>
<p id="TLFgR6">The Wizards slightly outshot the Bulls (47.4% efg to 47.1%), and if you watched without looking at the numbers, you might conclude Chicago lost because of an inability to hit open threes. There’s some truth to that, except...well...the Wizards couldn’t make open threes either. The Bulls shot 10-35, 28.6% from three. The Wizards shot 14-49 for an identical 28.6%.</p>
<p id="AHfkmW">Altogether, the teams combined for 40.8% shooting from the floor and 28.6% from three-point range, which rolls together into a 47.3% effective field goal percentage. </p>
<p id="yRuk6v">Neither team could be convicted if someone accused them of defending well, though it’s fair to say both teams gave it a legitimate effort.</p>
<p id="eyE25G">The Bulls were probably hurt more by some strange officiating — players were literally being knocked to the floor in violent collisions on one end only to have a touch foul called on the other — but they also were +10 in free throw attempts, and +8 in made free throws.</p>
<h2 id="4gybEd">Musings & Observations</h2>
<ul>
<li id="TimCsx">Corey Kispert had an atrocious shooting night — 6-18 from the floor and 3-10 from deep (a 41.7% efg) and he had two turnovers, but he also had a career high 12 rebounds, plus three assists, and two steals.</li>
<li id="HQK7Y6">Johnny Davis had his best game of the season — eight points on 3-6 shooting, 2-4 from three-point range, plus two rebounds and three assists. He gave a good defensive effort, once again. Now, is that repeatable? I’d lean towards “not” because the shooting form is hinkty (his two misses were really ugly), and he looks slow out there most of the time. But, he’s on the big and strong side for a guard, and he seems to be figuring out how to use those attributes on defense.</li>
<li id="UNLL5J">Jordan Poole was okay. At times. He did his usual mixtape dance and dribble stuff that resulted with stalwart defenders like Vucevic still unshook. His shot selection induces nausea. His decision-making is apparently intended to push him well past the point where his skill could make him successful and straight into the realm of “test your luck,” and sometimes his luck pays off. By NBA standards, his efficiency (109 offensive rating, 50.0% efg) was subpar. In this game, it was a net positive for the Wizards.</li>
<li id="kvOjHH">The Bulls broadcast raved about Jared Butler, who did finish the game with 13 assists — some of which came on some nice passes. He also shot 3-12 from the floor, 0-6 from three, and had four turnovers.</li>
<li id="IypMHq">Tristan Vukcevic launched five shots in nine minutes in his second NBA game, including 2-4 from three-point range. </li>
<li id="kEnvrg">Alex Caruso is an excellent defender. He routinely started possessions in one corner and through switches and good ol’ fashioned hustle finished them out top or in the opposite corner where he affected Wizards shots.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="vGa3TS">Four Factors</h2>
<p id="z5mSwN">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).</p>
<div id="YFkiIJ"><div data-anthem-component="table:12289618"></div></div>
<h2 id="wtIJQq">Stats & Metrics</h2>
<p id="Xct4Nf">Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).</p>
<p id="kHjT1g"><strong>Game Score (GmSC)</strong> converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s <em><strong>total contributions</strong></em> for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.</p>
<p id="SJgRQZ"><a href="https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/"><strong>PPA</strong></a><strong> </strong>is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.</p>
<p id="sGxA6c"><strong>POSS </strong>is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.</p>
<p id="WjtM8i"><strong>ORTG </strong>= offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.</p>
<p id="oYi44N"><strong>USG</strong> = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.</p>
<p id="uJY9cg">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.</p>
<p id="1Zo5Hb"><strong>+PTS </strong>= “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.</p>
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https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/3/26/24112197/washington-wizards-chicago-bulls-nba-statistical-analysisKevin Broom2024-03-24T07:00:00-04:002024-03-24T07:00:00-04:00Breaking down the Wizards’ win over the Raptors
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<img alt="Toronto Raptors v Washington Wizards" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cbV3bAYVFLHwRVJoHuixjV0sHg4=/0x0:5472x3648/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73229132/2100348593.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Washington Wizards guard Jordan Poole | Photo by Kenny Giarla/NBAE via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Stats, analysis, commentary.</p> <p id="VpyQYn">In last Thursday’s win against the Sacramento Kings, the Washington Wizards relied on Kyle Kuzma to lead the way while the rest of the roster chipped in just enough to bring home the victory. Against the the <a href="https://www.raptorshq.com">Toronto Raptors</a>, the rest of the roster carried Kuzma through a rough game and collected their second straight win for the third time this season.</p>
<p id="FG974I">Don’t get too chesty about this one. The Raptors traded away two of their best players earlier in the season (because the team wasn’t much good even with them), and they’re even more ravaged injuries than the Wizards have been the past week or so. Missing from this game: Immanuel Quickley (personal reasons), RJ Barrett (personal reasons), Jakob Poeltl (thumb), Scottie Barnes (hand), Chris Boucher (knee), and even a few more backups.</p>
<p id="9hINmu">Wizards interim head coach Brian Keefe wasn’t dealing with a full deck either. Out for the Wizards were Tyus Jones (back), Bilal Coulibaly (wrist), Landry Shamet (calf), Eugene Omoruyi (ankle), and Isaiah Livers (hip).</p>
<p id="vNOgFK">Washington got back Marvin Bagley III, and 2023 second round pick Tristan Vukcevic made his NBA debut.</p>
<p id="b2Z4ka">The Recitation of Woes out of the way, the players remaining suited up and played an actual game. It was pretty close throughout. The Raptors seemed like they were going to break the game open when their lead hit 11 in the third quarter, but Washington roared back and took the lead for good on a Corey Kispert three with 4:52 to play.</p>
<p id="8LnCXK">Jordan Poole provided a few of his standard terrible shots and head-scratching turnovers. He also compiled 12 assists to just three turnovers, and came up with three steals. This was one of his better games in a Wizards uniform, and he still has some easy fixes that would improve his production considerably.</p>
<p id="vkP3IB">Deni Avdija didn’t shoot great (8-19 from the floor and 3-8 from three — good for a 50.0% effective field goal percentage), but he defended, pushed the pace, attacked the paint (six free throws, though he made just three), grabbed 13 rebounds (including three on the offensive end), and had five assists. </p>
<p id="9CPF6X">The Wizards held their own for the first few minutes of the fourth quarter with a lineup of Avdija and four bench guys. He led the way with defensive effort and crisp passing.</p>
<p id="TT8wnH">If you think Richaun Holmes was the best player for the Wizards last night, I’m not going to argue. He dominated inside with 15 points on 6-9 shooting, and 14 rebounds (7 on the offensive end). Raptors center Kelly Olynyk couldn’t keep Holmes off the glass and nearly fouled out contending with Holmes’ strength and physicality.</p>
<p id="BasRny">Kispert made shots — 7-12 from the floor and 4-6 from deep. I thought his defense was iffy, and he didn’t contribute playmaking or rebounding, but efficient scoring is valuable, especially in a game where both teams struggled on the offensive end.</p>
<p id="RBtx8t">Bagley hit the boards in his return from back spasms — 8 rebounds in 16 minutes, plus a couple blocks.</p>
<p id="s44dY6">Johnny Davis worked on the defensive end and got free for a couple layups. This is probably the model for any possible success he’ll have as an NBA player unless he can fix his shot.</p>
<p id="PsLgHB">Kuzma had a crummy game — 16 points on 7-18 shooting, including 0-3 from deep and 2-4 from the free throw line. He also had four turnovers and four fouls. That’s a lot of negatives to overcome. He did contribute 9 defensive rebounds and 5 assists.</p>
<p id="WDgzm9">Vukcevic got three minutes in his first NBA game. He grabbed a rebound and that’s all there is to say about that.</p>
<h2 id="vGa3TS">Four Factors</h2>
<p id="z5mSwN">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).</p>
<div id="E1fJWV"><div data-anthem-component="table:12287927"></div></div>
<h2 id="wtIJQq">Stats & Metrics</h2>
<p id="Xct4Nf">Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).</p>
<p id="kHjT1g"><strong>Game Score (GmSC)</strong> converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s <em><strong>total contributions</strong></em> for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.</p>
<p id="SJgRQZ"><a href="https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/"><strong>PPA</strong></a><strong> </strong>is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.</p>
<p id="sGxA6c"><strong>POSS </strong>is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.</p>
<p id="WjtM8i"><strong>ORTG </strong>= offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.</p>
<p id="oYi44N"><strong>USG</strong> = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.</p>
<p id="uJY9cg">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.</p>
<p id="1Zo5Hb"><strong>+PTS </strong>= “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.</p>
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https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/3/24/24110234/washington-wizards-toronto-raptors-nba-statistical-analysisKevin Broom2024-03-22T07:00:00-04:002024-03-22T07:00:00-04:00The Numbers Crunch: Kuzma, Wizards stun the Kings
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<img alt="Sacramento Kings v Washington Wizards" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1IpSS2j1HRISQlwM6Y18DAuGDUo=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73225240/2103008187.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Back from injury, Kyle Kuzma led the Washington Wizards to a surprising victory against the Sacramento Kings. | Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Stats, analysis, commentary.</p> <p id="OnPEN3">Kyle Kuzma, back in action after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury, was excellent, and everyone else was <em>just</em> good enough for the Wizards to claw out a surprising win against the visiting Sacramento Kings.</p>
<p id="a5kpdA">Kuzma led the way with 31 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists. His shot-making was superb — 13-22 from the floor and 3-6 from deep, good for 65.9% effective field goal percentage. Five turnovers dragged his overall efficiency to about league average, but that was actually positive in this one. The Kings bricked their way to a 104 offensive rating (points per possession x 100), and the Wizards managed a 111. League average is 115.5.</p>
<p id="4ihiZe">Washington got positive contributions from nearly everyone else who took the floor:</p>
<ul>
<li id="c8pZRz">Corey Kispert couldn’t hit from deep (1-4) but kept attacking closeouts and converting inside. He finished with 15 points on nine field goal attempts — impressive efficiency considering the one made three and 2-6 shooting from the free throw line.</li>
<li id="wxjvi6">Jordan Poole had a subpar (by league standards) offensive game but minimized the damage by not forcing shots and working on defense. He wound up with three steals, which helped offset his three turnovers.</li>
<li id="pVGlTX">Deni Avidja, who missed the last three games with a knee injury, had one of those messy <em>do a bunch of everything</em> games that included good and bad. He scored 17 points on decent shooting — 7-14 from the floor, 2-3 from three, and he had nine rebounds and five assists. On defense, he helped harass De’Aaron Fox into an abysmal offensive night (10-30 shooting and three turnovers). And he also had three turnovers and shot just 1-3 from the free throw line. It was good to see him back in action.</li>
<li id="xelqN9">Patrick Baldwin Jr. scored six points in nine minutes plus two rebounds, a steal and a block. He attacked closeouts a couple times with more aggression than he’s previously shown.</li>
<li id="KPb2J8">Richaun Holmes wasn’t very good <em>except</em> he had 16 rebounds (6 on the offensive end), and he made Domantas Sabonis fight for every inch inside and helped force the Kings’ All-Star center into six turnovers.</li>
<li id="hpiomq">Johnny Davis made a floater and grabbed three rebounds in 13 minutes.</li>
<li id="YmhBtG">Anthony Gill scored eight points in 18 minutes on just four shots.</li>
</ul>
<p id="2eqiom">In the first half, Washington’s defensive plan seemed mostly to let the Kings miss open threes, which the Kings obligingly did. In the second half, the Wizards sensed an opportunity to get a win and seized it. Their defensive effort and execution improved, and they weathered repeated Sacramento attempts to complete a comeback.</p>
<p id="J2QNm8">With the win, Washington has a 12-58 record. That’s the league’s worst record — a half game behind the <a href="https://www.detroitbadboys.com">Detroit Pistons</a> for second worst. The remaining schedule is significantly easier than it’s been the past few weeks. Even so, my prediction machine has the Wizards favored in just one game the rest of the way — March 29 against the Pistons. </p>
<p id="dSRTWg">However, the prediction machine thinks they’ll get 2-3 more victories over their final 12 games. That would mean 14 or 15 wins and in the three-way group that gets best draft lottery odds for drawing the top pick. For what it’s worth, their best chances at getting those two “extra” wins: Saturday night against the <a href="https://www.raptorshq.com">Toronto Raptors</a> (41% chance of winning) and April 6 against the <a href="https://www.blazersedge.com">Portland Trail Blazers</a> (49%).</p>
<h2 id="vGa3TS">Four Factors</h2>
<p id="z5mSwN">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).</p>
<div id="ecBd4D"><div data-anthem-component="table:12286272"></div></div>
<h2 id="wtIJQq">Stats & Metrics</h2>
<p id="Xct4Nf">Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).</p>
<p id="kHjT1g"><strong>Game Score (GmSC)</strong> converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s <em><strong>total contributions</strong></em> for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.</p>
<p id="SJgRQZ"><a href="https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/"><strong>PPA</strong></a><strong> </strong>is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.</p>
<p id="sGxA6c"><strong>POSS </strong>is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.</p>
<p id="WjtM8i"><strong>ORTG </strong>= offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.</p>
<p id="oYi44N"><strong>USG</strong> = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.</p>
<p id="uJY9cg">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.</p>
<p id="1Zo5Hb"><strong>+PTS </strong>= “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.</p>
<div id="AFcpOP"><div data-anthem-component="table:12286274"></div></div>
<div id="mAL2L6"><div data-anthem-component="table:12286275"></div></div>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/f_YtwDqUzUQyqrTP1NdDdOPtEW8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25349178/ppa_game_score.png">
</figure>
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/3/22/24108317/the-numbers-crunch-kuzma-wizards-stun-the-kingsKevin Broom2024-03-20T07:00:00-04:002024-03-20T07:00:00-04:00The Numbers Crunch: Depleted Wizards blasted by Rockets
<figure>
<img alt="Washington Wizards v Houston Rockets - NBA" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IVPO1ssBVgWxLfOI0hgcDcoTmhY=/0x40:3843x2602/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73219944/2089867317.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Wizards forward Justin Champagnie | Photo by Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Stats, analysis, commentary.</p> <p id="5FlWGz">Wizards games feel like the NBA version of <em>Whose Line Is It Anyway?</em>, the game show where everything’s made up and the points don’t matter. Except, of course, it’s the games themselves that don’t matter.</p>
<p id="MAZMPs">NBA blackout rules forced me to watch an entire Wizards broadcast, and...I guess their theory of commentary is that viewers want relentless positivity and cheerleading, and don’t mind (or notice) obvious absurdities and falsehoods. Also that viewers don’t care about things like the play-by-play guy correctly identifying locations on the floor. </p>
<p id="mtGYxW">Like, Chris Miller calling this shot from <a href="https://www.thedreamshake.com">Houston Rockets</a> center Jock Landale a “free throw line extended jumper,” when the shot was actually from the free throw line.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/00q3rvJ1nLIdEU0WuMmYFWpWF70=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25345329/HOU_vs_WAS_on_03_19_2024.png">
</figure>
<p id="WSvf4j">For those who don’t know but are interested in learning, “free throw line extended” is an imaginary line running from the free throw line (on both sides of the floor) out to the sideline. It’s where the free throw line would be <em>if</em> we extended it across the entire floor. It is <em>not</em> the free throw line itself. That’s called “the free throw line.”</p>
<p id="kCxXce">On the bright side, Miller did correctly identify the dunker spot, and he told an amusing anecdote about Jeff Green intentionally stepping on Miller’s shoes in a pregame conversation.</p>
<p id="nw3zUA">As for Consor, please believe me when I tell you that he’s a deeply knowledgeable and superb basketball analyst. At least in private. I’ve had a number of in-depth discussions with him on strategy, team-building, fundamentals, <em>advanced</em> fundamentals and on and on and on. His insights on NBA defense were enormously valuable when I was working on my defensive tracking project. Nearly 20 years ago, Consor posed a fake trade hypothetical to me and a friend that was so good, I <em>still </em>think about it now and then.</p>
<p id="leLaya">So it saddens me to hear what he’s doing on TV. His “analysis” last night was apparently to like anything that someone in a Wizards uniform did. He liked how Jordan Poole was playing, generalizing from a few possessions when he didn’t force a shot. Except, Poole had been playing poorly — taking bad shots, laying bricks, unable to shake even big, slow, weak defenders. Poole finished the game 5-18 from the floor with two turnovers and four fouls. He was <em>awful</em>.</p>
<p id="JN5WaR">Consor agreed with Miller’s absurd assertion that Johnny Davis was looking more and more like he did in his NCAA days at Wisconsin. This enthusiasm came at a time when Davis was scoreless and on his way to 2 points, 1 rebound, and 1 steal in 27 minutes of action. He shot 1-7 from the floor.</p>
<p id="fnDmQS">They raved about Anthony Gill, who Consor asserted could have a role on any team in the NBA, when he’s in fact a <em>break glass in case of emergency</em> fill-in for the NBA’s worst team. Great guy, hard worker, <em>definitely</em> a talented basketball player who’s among the top 600 players on the planet. But there isn’t a robust market for Gill’s services, and there won’t be when he’s next a free agent. Gill <em>might</em> get a deal with another NBA team. More likely, it’s the Wizards or back overseas.</p>
<p id="LpKhQO">A fan listening to the TV broadcast could logically think guys on the team really were playing well. All it would have taken is not looking at the scoreboard, which reflected the reality that the team was losing badly and would lose by 23. And if maybe they took a nap during that stretch in the third quarter where the Wizards transmogrified Landale into prime Bill Russell, who finished the game with seven blocks. And if maybe they didn’t watch the game but just had the sound on in the background.</p>
<p id="0VA5fV">I understand wanting to sell some hope. Trying to peddle the idea that any of these guys (except <em>maybe</em> Poole and Kispert) could play a role if the team can be competitive again in a few years, is absurd. Especially when these guys playing well (according to Miller and Consor) results in a 23-point defeat.</p>
<p id="Io2X1t">Kudos to the Wizards M*A*S*H unit for keeping the score close for 2+ quarters. It’s no big failure they got buried when the Rockets got serious. Houston has genuine NBA talent that wants very much to make the play-in and then the playoffs. Washington was terrible when they had their regulars, and with the entire starting five out with injuries, they’re going to be that much worse.</p>
<p id="rQb2uL">It’s okay to praise their effort and acknowledge reality without resorting to propaganda and outright lies. It’s okay to say the team isn’t any good, praise a good play as exactly that — a good play — and talk about how much players need to work and improve to become good NBA players. It does no one any good, except maybe their bank balances and Ted Leonsis’ ego, to use their platform to spread BS.</p>
<p id="aJmDb0">To the actual game...</p>
<ul>
<li id="Qj7Q6E">Jalen Green scored 37 on the Wizards last week in Houston, and went for a career-high 42 against Washington last night.</li>
<li id="Cg3FNU">Amen Thompson scored 25 points on 12 field goal attempts, and grabbed 10 rebounds.</li>
<li id="SfBBW2">Starting at center in place of the injured Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr. had 18 points and 14 rebounds.</li>
<li id="SegIWM">Justin Champagnie was pretty good — 16 points on 9 field goal attempts, 8 rebounds (including 6 offensive boards), and 2 steals.</li>
<li id="L0I6XY">Richaun Holmes played hard and grabbed four offensive rebounds.</li>
<li id="Yjo8VY">Jules Bernard shot 3-5 from three-point range.</li>
<li id="Yzos1o">I still think Patrick Baldwin Jr. has more of a future at center than he does at forward. Despite being praised by The Broadcast as a “bouncy” athlete (which seems to stretch the word “bouncy” to a new meaning that has nothing to do with its previous meaning), his best asset seems to be abnormally long arms on a 6-9 frame. He might get more open looks from three-point range when defended by slower bigs whose first thoughts are about protecting the paint than he does when defended by faster, bouncier forwards. (I don’t really think Baldwin has much of a future at center, by the way. Just that he has more of a future in that role than he does at forward.)</li>
<li id="vmrL4r">Corey Kispert opened the game by making his first five shots. He finished 6-11, and managed 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 3 turnovers in 35 minutes.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="vGa3TS">Four Factors</h2>
<p id="z5mSwN">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).</p>
<div id="InMoXV"><div data-anthem-component="table:12284307"></div></div>
<h2 id="wtIJQq">Stats & Metrics</h2>
<p id="Xct4Nf">Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).</p>
<p id="kHjT1g"><strong>Game Score (GmSC)</strong> converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s <em><strong>total contributions</strong></em> for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.</p>
<p id="SJgRQZ"><a href="https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/"><strong>PPA</strong></a><strong> </strong>is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.</p>
<p id="sGxA6c"><strong>POSS </strong>is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.</p>
<p id="WjtM8i"><strong>ORTG </strong>= offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.</p>
<p id="oYi44N"><strong>USG</strong> = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.</p>
<p id="uJY9cg">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.</p>
<p id="1Zo5Hb"><strong>+PTS </strong>= “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.</p>
<div id="CfgtMa"><div data-anthem-component="table:12284314"></div></div>
<div id="IonTnT"><div data-anthem-component="table:12284315"></div></div>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8-u9dCy6o84p91wifUAPQaaUoTA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25345381/ppa_game_score.png">
</figure>
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/3/20/24106436/the-numbers-crunch-depleted-wizards-blasted-by-rocketsKevin Broom2024-03-18T07:00:00-04:002024-03-18T07:00:00-04:00The Numbers Crunch: Celtics rain threes on injury-depleted Wizards
<figure>
<img alt="Boston Celtics v Washington Wizards" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OSBrr8ETUi9Zi01YHU_D_sa8vXg=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73214675/2092543052.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Wizards guard Jordan Poole had one of his best games of the season in the team’s 26-point loss to the Boston Celtics. | Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Stats, analysis, commentary.</p> <p id="mZVx5q">The only real question at opening tip of the the <a href="https://www.celticsblog.com">Boston Celtics</a> at <a href="https://www.bulletsforever.com">Washington Wizards</a> St. Patrick’s Day game was the final margin of Boston’s victory.</p>
<p id="03I1Ev">The Wizards are arguably the NBA’s weakest team this season, and they were missing Kyle Kuzma (shoulder), Deni Avdija (knee), Tyus Jones (back), Bilal Coulibaly (wrist), Marvin Bagley III (back), Landry Shamet (calf), and Isaiah Livers (hip).</p>
<p id="MoBJ0i">Sharp-eyed readers may have picked up that Washington’s injured list includes its entire starting five. Eugene Omoruyi sprained an ankle during the game.</p>
<p id="dvqC3m">Boston was missing key players, as well, including Jaylen Brown (ankle), Derrick White (hand), and Kristaps Porzingis (hamstring). That’s three starters, any of which would be the best player on the Wizards.</p>
<p id="75Fmh7">In the absence of what felt like everyone, Jordan Poole played well — an efficient 31 points and 4 assists in just 23 minutes of action. He did get stymied a couple times by Sam Hauser, but he looked a lot like the Golden State Poole — jittery, slippery, getting and making good shots. This is a version of Poole the Wizards hoped to get when they traded for him.</p>
<p id="kb3z8i">Truth be told, the rest of the game isn’t worth close scrutiny or in depth analysis. The non-Poole Wizards were all different flavors of bad. The only guy for whom that could be categorized as “disappointing” was Corey Kispert, and even then Kispert’s overall production tracks pretty closely to his three-point percentage...and he hit just 1-5 against Boston.</p>
<p id="toevy8">Some of the younger guys had positive moments. Justin Champagnie hit a couple threes and grabbed eight rebounds. Johnny Davis cracked 50% from the floor (4-7) and had a couple blocks. Jared Butler produced six assists. Patrick Baldwin Jr. had a steal and a couple blocks.</p>
<p id="FWOU6c">They tried but were vastly outmatched by Jayson Tatum and Boston backups.</p>
<p id="jPdcD9">Of note: Boston’s Hauser hit 10 threes in 23 minutes before stepping on the foot of a Wizards player sitting on the bench and spraining his ankle. He finished one three from the franchise record for makes in a single game, and was the first player in league history to hit 10+ threes in just 23 minutes of action.</p>
<p id="c3ApKs">Next up for the Wizards: a home game Tuesday night against the <a href="https://www.thedreamshake.com">Houston Rockets</a>.</p>
<h2 id="vGa3TS">Four Factors</h2>
<p id="z5mSwN">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).</p>
<div id="D1OFvt"><div data-anthem-component="table:12282184"></div></div>
<h2 id="wtIJQq">Stats & Metrics</h2>
<p id="Xct4Nf">Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).</p>
<p id="kHjT1g"><strong>Game Score (GmSC)</strong> converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s <em><strong>total contributions</strong></em> for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.</p>
<p id="SJgRQZ"><a href="https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/"><strong>PPA</strong></a><strong> </strong>is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.</p>
<p id="sGxA6c"><strong>POSS </strong>is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.</p>
<p id="WjtM8i"><strong>ORTG </strong>= offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.</p>
<p id="oYi44N"><strong>USG</strong> = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.</p>
<p id="uJY9cg">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.</p>
<p id="1Zo5Hb"><strong>+PTS </strong>= “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.</p>
<div id="EUc1Q8"><div data-anthem-component="table:12282189"></div></div>
<div id="8UxEs1"><div data-anthem-component="table:12282190"></div></div>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YrGCtHwuWfxL_fXX1QTWUoaDilI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25341697/ppa_game_score.png">
</figure>
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/3/18/24104469/the-numbers-crunch-celtics-rain-threes-on-injury-depleted-wizardsKevin Broom2024-03-17T07:00:00-04:002024-03-17T07:00:00-04:00The Numbers Crunch: Bulls trample the Wizards
<figure>
<img alt="Washington Wizards v Chicago Bulls" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dfMAYLu78wbn9CL-HbZ2hIpS2Ok=/0x0:5575x3717/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73212887/2082123570.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Washington Wizards wing Corey Kispert | Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Stats, analysis, commentary.</p> <p id="hGmJTK">I came into the Wizards vs. Bulls game with a sore neck and a headache, and I emerged with a serious case of eyesore. Watching the game was a stultifying chore made marginally better by the little things like Benny the Bull hitting a no-look half court shot during a timeout.</p>
<p id="c8Ep6U">Seriously, top highlights of the evening were the National Anthem performed on uilleann pipes, and the halftime Irish dance show.</p>
<p id="qQzKZy">They did play a basketball game, which the Wizards lost. By 28 points. It wasn’t that close a contest. Truth is, the Bulls didn’t even play all that well. They bungled about enough in the second half that head coach Billy Donovan didn’t feel comfortable pulling the starters and letting the scrubs mop up.</p>
<p id="WFzACW">Missing Tyus Jones (back), the Wizards were unable to get into basic half court sets, and couldn’t get good shots with any regularity (or convert the ones they got). Missing Deni Avdija (knee), the Wizards were feeble on defense and slow to get into transition. Missing Marvin Bagley III (back), the Wizards were overwhelmed inside by Nikola Vucevic and Andre Drummond, got outrebounded 51-32, and were outscored in the paint, 68-46.</p>
<p id="84gVxd">For the Wizards, Corey Kispert had a good game. He shot well (62.5% effective field goal percentage) and somehow had 3 blocks and 3 steals. </p>
<p id="IknegS">Justin Champagnie was okay, though he had several sloppy passes that resulted in turnovers or made possessions more difficult than necessary. He gave a reasonably good effort on defense.</p>
<p id="N6ClPd">Bilal Coulibaly was okay — 15 points on 5-9 shooting, 8 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal. He also had a couple turnovers and a few awkward misses on drives.</p>
<p id="TrFa2E">Starting in place of Tyus Jones (his first start in 12 games), Jordan Poole mostly stunk. He scored 13 points on 4-12 shooting, though three of those makes came in the fourth quarter when the game was long out of reach. He had some good passes, though he also committed four turnovers and got a tech for cussing out a ref. For the game, a 93 offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) on 35.2% usage.</p>
<p id="ENp5cY">Kyle Kuzma stunk too — 11 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 turnovers. It was a low-energy, lackluster performance from the team’s leader.</p>
<p id="a2RB2h">I could keep going, but there’s not much point. No one played well except for Kispert and <em>maybe</em> Champagnie. Eugene Omoruyi was bad but at least managed to annoy Vucevic enough to draw a tech.</p>
<p id="1ppkSf">The game couldn’t end soon enough. Same for the 2023-24 season.</p>
<h2 id="vGa3TS">Four Factors</h2>
<p id="z5mSwN">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).</p>
<div id="5yxRoP"><div data-anthem-component="table:12281431"></div></div>
<h2 id="wtIJQq">Stats & Metrics</h2>
<p id="Xct4Nf">Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).</p>
<p id="kHjT1g"><strong>Game Score (GmSC)</strong> converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s <em><strong>total contributions</strong></em> for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.</p>
<p id="SJgRQZ"><a href="https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/"><strong>PPA</strong></a><strong> </strong>is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.</p>
<p id="sGxA6c"><strong>POSS </strong>is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.</p>
<p id="WjtM8i"><strong>ORTG </strong>= offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.</p>
<p id="oYi44N"><strong>USG</strong> = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.</p>
<p id="uJY9cg">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.</p>
<p id="1Zo5Hb"><strong>+PTS </strong>= “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.</p>
<div id="hHaSYy"><div data-anthem-component="table:12281436"></div></div>
<div id="jKo6xe"><div data-anthem-component="table:12281437"></div></div>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DifqIjnH1bFC09lwUK4uwA171Do=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25340288/ppa_game_score.png">
</figure>
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/3/17/24103578/the-numbers-crunch-bulls-trampled-the-wizardsKevin Broom2024-03-15T07:00:00-04:002024-03-15T07:00:00-04:00The Numbers Crunch: Rockets blast the Wizards
<figure>
<img alt="Washington Wizards v Houston Rockets" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2OVBDqqpsOcfa3-6VElNmc9Y1x4=/0x0:5166x3444/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73208944/2076715808.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Washington Wizards forward Deni Avdija played well in the team’s loss to the Houston Rockets. | Photo by Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Stats, analysis, commentary.</p> <p id="26dfvF">The final score does not adequately convey how much better the <a href="https://www.thedreamshake.com">Houston Rockets</a> were than the <a href="https://www.bulletsforever.com">Washington Wizards</a> last night. Washington’s defense was a joke most of the night.</p>
<p id="h0GE0L">With Daniel Gafford dealt to the <a href="https://www.mavsmoneyball.com">Dallas Mavericks</a>, and Marvin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes out with injuries, interim head coach Brian Keefe once again tried Kyle Kuzma at center. Kuzma’s overall game wasn’t bad — he scored efficiently despite five turnovers — but he’s not a rim protector.</p>
<p id="ioOOtL">With the Wizards lacking a man in the middle, the Rockets attacked the rim over and over and over again, scoring 70 points in the paint. When Washington attempted to adjust, Houston shot 7-17 from deep in the second half.</p>
<p id="WIoDxO">The game had some entertaining stretches. Jordan Poole got hot in that third quarter, which was fun. He shot 5-7 from the floor, including some extreme-difficulty attempts, and knocked down 3-4 from three-point range.</p>
<p id="pIB5p0">Deni Avdija played an outstanding all-around game — 24 points on 13 field goal attempts, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and just 2 turnovers. He was one of the few players in a Wizards uniform who seemed interested on the defensive end for more than a random possession here or there.</p>
<p id="1n0rgR">He left the action a few minutes early after stepping on an opponents foot and falling awkwardly. His knee got bent too far on the play, and he limped off the court and straight to the locker room when the game stopped.</p>
<p id="BBn2so">Poole and backcourt buddy Tyus Jones were particularly bad on defense. They both did the <em>jog alongside </em>maneuver when Rockets perimeter players were driving to the hoop. Jalen Green, who’s been among the league’s least efficient offensive players this season, torched them with 37 points and a 146 offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100). </p>
<p id="NwH9J0">Amen Thompson, who’s struggled on the offensive end all year had his way inside against Washington — 20 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals. All 11 of his field goal attempts came from inside the restricted area.</p>
<p id="OaNh0x">Bilal Coulibaly had a rough shooting game (3-9 from the floor, 0-3 from three), but had four assists and a couple steals. </p>
<p id="LHRfvT">Tyus Jones had a crummy game that scored better in my PPA metric than I’d have expected watching on TV. His defense was a joke.</p>
<p id="cmqhsk">One of the more entertaining aspects of the game was the Rockets broadcast. The Wizards had some truly astounding missed shots — air balls, caroms off the side of the backboard, 24-foot shots that traveled 27 feet. After one sequence that included Eugene Omoruyi somehow shooting the ball off a sharp edge of the backboard and Poole airmailing the rebound, Rockets play-by-play man Craig Ackerman said, “These misses are legendary.”</p>
<p id="TvM50U">Later, when Kuzma floundered about and coughed up the ball against minimal defensive presence, analyst Ryan Hollins in <em>amazed whisper tone</em> said, “What are even they doing?!”</p>
<p id="Kq35Eg">Welcome to the club, Ryan.</p>
<h2 id="vGa3TS">Four Factors</h2>
<p id="z5mSwN">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).</p>
<div id="EM9rwd"><div data-anthem-component="table:12279761"></div></div>
<h2 id="wtIJQq">Stats & Metrics</h2>
<p id="Xct4Nf">Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).</p>
<p id="FCp1ki"><strong>Game Score (GmSC)</strong> converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s <em><strong>total contributions</strong></em> for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.</p>
<p id="SJgRQZ"><a href="https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/"><strong>PPA</strong></a><strong> </strong>is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.</p>
<p id="sGxA6c"><strong>POSS </strong>is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.</p>
<p id="WjtM8i"><strong>ORTG </strong>= offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.</p>
<p id="oYi44N"><strong>USG</strong> = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.</p>
<p id="uJY9cg">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.</p>
<p id="1Zo5Hb"><strong>+PTS </strong>= “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/CGuUB6WPxqBdYJxuOxDLBv8POnU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25337236/ppa_game_score.png">
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https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/3/15/24101465/the-numbers-crunch-rockets-blast-the-wizardsKevin Broom2024-03-13T07:00:00-04:002024-03-13T07:00:00-04:00The Numbers Crunch: People in Grizzlies uniforms beat Wizards
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<img alt="Washington Wizards v Memphis Grizzlies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2ihdFwYIbeB1UPL8FSU5fSUcQ-Y=/0x0:5202x3468/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73203285/2071903035.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Washington Wizards wing Corey Kispert | Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Stats, analysis, commentary.</p> <p id="PQcujW">The <a href="https://www.bulletsforever.com">Washington Wizards</a> went to Memphis in search of their first three-game win streak since last season and got pantsed by a shell of a team — a bunch of backups and G Leaguers in NBA clothes.</p>
<p id="sGO8ZF">Out of action for the Grizzlies were Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Brandon Clarke, Vince Williams Jr., and Ziaire Williams. I omitted non-rotation guys who were also injured, including Derrick Rose, Scotty</p>
<p id="GfcGbK">Pippen Jr., Lamar Stevens, and Yuta Watanabe.</p>
<p id="XBaEHY">Jordan Goodwin started despite a sore Achilles. John Konchar played on a bum ankle.</p>
<p id="x8pzFX">Washington’s injured list: Marvin Bagley III, Richaun Holmes, Isaiah Livers, Landry Shamet, effort.</p>
<p id="ta5fhD">The scraps and leftovers the Grizzlies assembled got after it from opening tip. The Grizzlies were +7 in loose balls recovered, and +25 in rebounds. Their leading board men were the 6-3 Goodwin (12), and the 6-5 John Konchar (10). Their 17 offensive rebounds led to a 23-2 advantage in second chance points.</p>
<p id="Gg0bVL">And Memphis has been one of the NBA’s <em>weakest</em> rebounding teams this season.</p>
<p id="TAlj3F">The rebounding enabled the Grizzlies to overcome atrocious shooting (48.9% effective field goal percentage) and being -4 in turnovers. And it handed the Wizards one of the most dispiriting defeats of the season.</p>
<p id="SVazmz">The team’s “best” players were meh to awful. Of the “young” guys who might be considered a part of the team’s future, only Corey Kispert had even a decent game, and his night boiled down to little more than good shooting.</p>
<p id="CdB9uz">The Wizards managed to stage something of a rally after trailing by 25 at halftime, but the night ultimately served as yet another object lesson in how far this franchise is from being competitive.</p>
<p id="N23Z2m">The Grizzlies are in a season from hell. Their year spiraled early because of Morant’s suspension and serious injuries to Steven Adams (since traded) and Brandon Clarke. Their only rotation players available against Washington were Luke Kennard (who played 24.6 minutes per game in Memphis last season), and John Konchar (who played 20.8).</p>
<p id="JR0ZwY">And the Wizards didn’t just get beat, they trailed by 25 at the half and gave up a career-high 24 points to Trey Jemison, who had a 10-day contract with the Wizards earlier this season. They got beat on the boards by Goodwin, a Wizards G Leaguer who got sent to the <a href="https://www.brightsideofthesun.com">Phoenix Suns</a> in the Bradley Beal trade. They got lit up by Deeky Jarreau, an undrafted 26-year-old career G League player.</p>
<p id="8g85FK">Weird but true — in January 2022, the Capital City Go-Go traded two first round G League picks for Jarreau and a second round G League selection. They waived him in March, re-signed him…and then traded him to the Memphis Hustle for Mychal Mulder.</p>
<h2 id="OGu1DF">Musings & Observations</h2>
<ul>
<li id="VySGX4">When I mentioned one of Washington’s “best” players having a “meh” game, I was referring to Kyle Kuzma. He finished with 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists, and his shot making was decent. But he’s struggling in the center’s role on defense, and he committed four costly turnovers. For the night, his offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) was 98. That was the Wizards average and also more than 17 points per 100 possessions below league average.</li>
<li id="WkFRCc">Bilal Coulibaly doesn’t know what to do when he gets to the rim and a defender is near. The results are usually cringey, which might be why he’s much more likely to stay on the perimeter and hoist threes. Against Memphis, he was 3-10 from deep. The Grizzlies — like most NBA teams — are content to let him shoot until he makes enough to warrant covering him. </li>
<li id="aqkKGI">Jordan Poole had another bad game — 11 shots to score 10 points, 4 assists, 2 turnovers. His defensive effort was lackluster, as was his offensive effort to be honest. For the game: 85 offensive rating on 23.3% usage.</li>
<li id="1m4h9u">The team’s third guy in the “best” group, Tyus Jones, was the worst of the trio for a night. He shot 1-9, missed all four three-point attempts, and failed to get a rebound in 34 minutes. As <a href="https://www.bulletsforever.com/2015/11/12/9723622/randy-wittman-rebound-nba-2k16-test-orlando-magic">Jake Whitacre proved in 2015</a>, even a 56-year-old Randy Wittman could grab at least one rebound with that much playing time.</li>
<li id="gvOS82">I didn’t think Deni Avdija had a good game, but I was a bit surprised to see his PPA score come out so low. He missed all his threes, but still shot 6-10 from the floor (very good). But, he had just four rebounds and one assist in 36 minutes, and he also had three turnovers and three fouls. Plus, he shot just 4-7 from the free throw line. In other words, the turnovers and missed free throws dragged down his offensive efficiency (ortg: 94 on 21.3% usage), and he had little positive production in other areas. He did lead the team in shots contested.</li>
<li id="ypwVOf">Jared Butler looked competent. The Wizards should keep giving him minutes. Perhaps by borrowing some playing time from one of his allegedly better teammates.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="vGa3TS">Four Factors</h2>
<p id="z5mSwN">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).</p>
<div id="AN96fx"><div data-anthem-component="table:12277653"></div></div>
<h2 id="wtIJQq">Stats & Metrics</h2>
<p id="Xct4Nf">Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).</p>
<p id="FCp1ki"><strong>Game Score (GmSC)</strong> converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s <em><strong>total contributions</strong></em> for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.</p>
<p id="SJgRQZ"><a href="https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/"><strong>PPA</strong></a><strong> </strong>is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.</p>
<p id="sGxA6c"><strong>POSS </strong>is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.</p>
<p id="WjtM8i"><strong>ORTG </strong>= offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.</p>
<p id="oYi44N"><strong>USG</strong> = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.</p>
<p id="uJY9cg">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.</p>
<p id="1Zo5Hb"><strong>+PTS </strong>= “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.</p>
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https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/3/13/24099215/the-numbers-crunch-people-in-grizzlies-uniforms-beat-wizardsKevin Broom2024-03-11T07:00:00-04:002024-03-11T07:00:00-04:00The Numbers Crunch: Wizards beat Miami Heat for second consecutive win
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<img alt="Washington Wizards v Miami Heat" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/B45PDxsR_Jmjt2gjM-nMUV1Ytk4=/0x0:4496x2997/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73197371/2066801306.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Washington Wizards guard Tyus Jones produced 16 assists to just one turnover in the team’s victory over the Miami Heat. | Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Stats, analysis, commentary</p> <p id="Zb1g8d">The Wizards celebrated the end of their losing streak with a second straight victory, this time over a Miami Heat squad that could ill-afford a loss to one of the NBA’s worst teams.</p>
<p id="ka3qVa">The game itself was an odd watch. For most of the evening, it felt like Miami was playing better...but Washington kept making threes, and the Heat kept missing open shots, and that was enough to keep the Wizards in contact. For the game, the Wizards were +18 from three-point range.</p>
<p id="APCFAT">Washington seemed to take control in the fourth, building a 10-point lead with just 2:45 to play. And then, things went #SoWizards. </p>
<p id="Q3lknj">Kyle Kuzma, who spent much of the night shooting free throws (a career high 18 free throw attempts) made four errors in the final minutes that came close to losing the game:</p>
<ol>
<li id="aySFCc">Careless ball handling that allowed Jimmy Butler to poke the ball loose for a steal.</li>
<li id="ZYMG7u">Sloppy footwork yielded a traveling violation.</li>
<li id="oty8wk">After missing a difficult turnaround fadeaway, Kuzma got the offensive rebound and inexplicably tossed up a nine-foot floater instead of dribbling away from the action and burning clock.</li>
<li id="2wvxhB">Up two with 12 seconds to play, Kuzma flailed his arm and got called for an obvious offensive foul. (The refs also could have whistled him for a travel, if they’d wanted.)</li>
</ol>
<p id="VolApH">The Wizards won anyway when the Heat missed two good looks from three-point range in the final five seconds. In the final 47 seconds of the game, the Heat shot 1-7 from the floor, including three missed threes from Duncan Robinson.</p>
<p id="I2hSSO">Next up for the Wizards is a Tuesday night game at the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies’ season was wrecked by injuries and suspension, and they now offer Washington an opportunity for their first three-game winning streak of the season. </p>
<h2 id="xz1SHY">Musings & Observations</h2>
<ul>
<li id="FkzpX5">What did the Miami Heat do to Corey Kispert? The last time these teams played, Kispert shot 6-14 from three en route to a season-high 26 points. Last night: 5-10 from three, 22 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists.</li>
<li id="ILgmaa">Bilal Coulibaly had a reasonably productive game — 11 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals and 2 blocks. He knocked 3-5 from three-point range. He also turned his ankle late in the game and hobbled for a few minutes before heading to the bench. He did return to action for the team’s final defensive possession.</li>
<li id="2lPB1t">Kuzma’s glory stats (points, rebounds, assists) look nice — 32 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists — and he had some stretches of impressive play. He also had some terrible stretches, including the final couple minutes. His offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) was 98 on an astronomical 38.5% usage rate. That offensive rating is more than 17 points below league average this season.</li>
<li id="VceY44">Tyus Jones had one of those Rorschach test games. He made the relatively few shots he took (5-9 from the floor, and 2-5 from deep), grabbed 4 rebounds, and had 16 assists to just one turnover. If you prefer your point guard to be a swashbuckler who stampedes into the paint and makes spectacular passes after crashing the defense, Jones isn’t your guy. He’s the guy who makes a bunch of “right play” passes and avoids costly turnovers and mistakes. He’s the guy who doesn’t seem to be doing a whole, and yet the team somehow gets better shots and shoots them better when he’s on the floor than when he’s off.</li>
<li id="z8gLIj">Jordan Poole had a brutal game that looked a lot like how he played as a starter. Lots of dribbling that went nowhere. Difficult shots with no real chance of going in. Sloppy ball handling and passing that resulted in 4 turnovers. Silly reach-in fouls, including one dumb open path call after he committed a turnover. The team was -21 in his 23 minutes on the floor.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="vGa3TS">Four Factors</h2>
<p id="z5mSwN">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).</p>
<div id="r2lIeb"><div data-anthem-component="table:12275256"></div></div>
<h2 id="wtIJQq">Stats & Metrics</h2>
<p id="Xct4Nf">Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).</p>
<p id="FCp1ki"><strong>Game Score (GmSC)</strong> converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s <em><strong>total contributions</strong></em> for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.</p>
<p id="SJgRQZ"><a href="https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/"><strong>PPA</strong></a><strong> </strong>is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.</p>
<p id="sGxA6c"><strong>POSS </strong>is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.</p>
<p id="WjtM8i"><strong>ORTG </strong>= offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.</p>
<p id="oYi44N"><strong>USG</strong> = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.</p>
<p id="uJY9cg">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.</p>
<p id="1Zo5Hb"><strong>+PTS </strong>= “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.</p>
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<div id="2aTF8L"><div data-anthem-component="table:12275258"></div></div>
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https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/3/11/24096830/nba-washington-wizards-miami-heat-statistical-analysisKevin Broom