This isn’t working, but why? Option B- Pace, 3PT%, and ORebs

Our offensive rating is 19th in the league. So our offense needs some fine tuning, but we have three players that can get you 20+ points per game as starters. That should help, but why hasn’t it?

One reason is pace. As of 3/23/2023, the Wizards Pace is 23rd in the league and total FGA are 21st in the league.

How do you make sure that the big three get fed and our bench remains motivated on the offensive and defensive end? The answer to that question is Pace. That’s what fed the machine in Golden State, and I think a faster pace might be the answer for the Wizards on the offensive end and for chemistry. It doesn’t have to be a zero sum game for Beal/Kuz/KP. One doesn’t have to sacrifice for the others to get their game going if you have a faster pace. One way to increase pace, is to launch 3 pointers on the break, or in swings from penetration assuming our point guards or Kuz can push the action. By the way, we’re 24th in the league in 3 point attempts.

That said, our three point shooting is pretty bad, so maybe the low attempts is a good thing? Our 3pt% as a team is ranked 19th in the league, at 35.5%. But unpacking that a bit, you’ll find that the players that shoot better than our current team average are: Kispert (41.3%), Morris (39.2%), KP (37.5%), Nunn (36.8%), and Beal (36.5%). They attempt 4.7, 3.3, 5.5, and 4.4 3 point shots per game respectively. By comparison, Klay Thompson shoots a career 41.5% and attempts a career 7.4 attempts per game. Even though Kispert’s current 3pt % average is close to Klay’s career average, perhaps comparing Kispert to one of the best shooters in the league is too much. Kevin Huerter is a more appropriate comparable. He averages 38.6% career and 40.8% this year, and launches 6.7 attempts this year and 5.7 attempts per game for his career. Perhaps we can figure out a way to get our more efficient 3 pt shooters more attempts, closer to 7 attempts per game, or atleast more than the 4.7 attempts Kispert is currently averaging.

The player that is dragging our team’s 3 point percentage down the most is Kuzma, who shoots 33.3% and attempts 7.5 per game. Deni also puts downward pressure on our team’s average, but not as dramatically. He shoots 29.8% and attempts 2.9 per game. I love Kuz, especially when he is pushing the pace and is active in the paint. When he’s hot, he should have the green light to do whatever he wants from 3point range. When he’s not, he should dial back the 3 point attempts but continue to push the pace. But yes, we do have the players on this team to be able shoot more 3 pointers per game and to do so effective. And no, we don’t have to be 24th in the league in attempts per game.

Another way to get more attempts is on second chances, by grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds. Unfortunately, this is perhaps the worse attribute of our team. We are 24th in the league on the offensive boards. We’re one of the worse teams in the league, and that has a lot to do with personnel. Gafford is the only player on our team that is really good on the offensive glass. I judge this by OReb %, Gaf is 16th in the league, our next best is KP at 42nd in the league. The team tried to gang rebound the offensive boards, but that resulted in the opponent getting more fast break buckets. KP used to shoot more step back threes, but now he parks in the paint. In part to generate more action from in close where no one can guard him. But also, I believe, in an attempt to get him more opportunities to grab offensive rebounds. He’s just not as good at it as Gafford. I think the best solution for OReb is getting help, specifically a backup Center.

The rest of the offense is actually pretty average. The team’s effective FG % is 13th in the league. That’s because we’re one of the best in the league at 2 pt FG% at 9th in the league. Because of the higher two pointers, FG% is skewed higher at 8th in the league. Turnovers aren’t bad either on average, we’re 18th in the league in TOV%. The offense struggles because of pace, 3pt shooting, and a lack of second change points.

Possible solutions: To increase pace and 3 point attempts, the offensive playbook needs to be revamped to allow for more attempts. I believe the slower pace has hurt Beal. His best seasons were statistically 2019-2020 and 2020-21, when we had a pace that ranked 7th and 1st in the league respectively. To increase 3pt%, we need to allow our best shooters to shoot more, limit Kuz attempts when he’s cold, and increase the pace. And to increase OReb, we need a backup C. I like Taj, but I think of him as a classic PF. We need a C with size that excels at grabbing OReb. That could also help us with more FGAs.

Our game against San Antonio was close, closer than it should be given the talent discrepancy. We had 85 FGA that game, SAS had 101. We ended up shooting 60% from the field to over compensate vs SAS’s 50%. We had 6 Ored, they had 11.

One aside, KP earlier in the season was shooting and making step back 3 pointers. I see him in the paint more, and he’s good there. But bringing back those step back 3’s might be a good thing.

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.