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The Numbers Crunch: Wizards stomped by well-rested Raptors

Stats, analysis, commentary.

Toronto Raptors v Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards center Daniel Gafford trying to protect the rim in the team’s 132-102 loss to the Toronto Raptors.
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Another game, another new marketing slogan. This one — The Washington Wizards: We’re tired. Washington was on the second night of a back-to-back, and they took on a Toronto Raptors squad that had been off since December 23. The result: the Wizards took a 30-point drubbing.

The energy differential showed early and often. For the Wizards, it leapt off the screen in the one, two, or no-pass possessions that featured guys standing around and launching shots because no one else was doing much of anything. It appeared in the abundance of open threes Toronto got. And in the 62 points the Raptors scored in the paint. And in the 27-8 advantage Toronto had in fast break points.

This is not to discount other key differences between the teams. Toronto is more talented and athletic, and they’re still interested in trying to make the play-in or the playoffs. Toronto head coach Darko Rajakovic shuffled the starting lineup and the rotation, and team leader Pascal Siakam told reporters before the game that they needed a win.

The Wizards, of course, aren’t much interested in winning, even though the coach sometimes makes decisions that would kinda-sorta seem to nod in that direction. Stuff like giving guys in their 30s who are on the way out of the league precious playing time that could go to youngsters who might have a chance to be part of the future.

Or not running offensive actions even a handful of times per game for 19-year-old rookie Bilal Coulibaly, a player the team needs to become a star if they’re going to contend for something other than a high draft pick in the next 5-7 years.

Musings & Observations

  • Daniel Gafford was pretty good — 12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 steals, and a block in 30 minutes. He was less efficient shooting than normal (5-9), though he did hit a free throw line jumper with the shot clock ticking down.
  • Despite Gafford’s efforts, the Wizards got outrebounded 53-34.
  • Bilal Coulibaly did not play well, but he was more active on offense (eight field goal attempts and a 16.6% usage rate overall), and he got some valuable learning opportunities trying to defend Siakam.
  • The Raptors had 43 assists on 52 field goals. It was the most assists by a Wizards opponent this season, and tied for sixth most by an opponent in Washington NBA history.
  • Deni Avdija was one of the few Wizards players who seemed energetic and excited to play. He was decent — 12 points on 8 shots, 2 rebounds, an assist, 2 steals, and a game high 3 deflections. He led the Wizards with seven contested shots, according to NBA tracking data.
  • Jordan Poole struggled against Toronto’s size and his own decision-making. He continues to have demonstrate an array moves that draw oohs and ahs from fans and announcers and don’t produce good shots for him or for teammates.
  • Tyus Jones missed shots he’s been making for the past couple weeks. It was his least impactful performance since mid-December.
  • Kyle Kuzma played with a thigh contusion and probably should have sat this one out. He shot poorly (just 1-5 from deep) and seemed sluggish when he tried to attack. He managed just 14 points on 13 shots, and five turnovers offset seven assists. He could not be accused of doing much of anything on defense.
  • Toronto’s effective field goal percentage was 65.4%, and somehow that was only the third best mark against Washington this season.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

Four Factors: Raptors at Wizards

FOUR FACTORS RAPTORS WIZARDS
FOUR FACTORS RAPTORS WIZARDS
EFG 0.654 0.511
OREB 14 10
TOV 17 16
FTM 13 10
PACE 101
ORTG 131 101

Stats & Metrics

Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s total contributions for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Stats & Metrics: Wizards

WIZARDS MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
WIZARDS MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
Daniel Gafford 30 63 135 13.6% 1.6 140 16.3 -21
Deni Avdija 24 51 138 14.2% 1.6 156 14.8 -12
Corey Kispert 21 43 128 21.6% 1.2 145 11.6 -13
Jordan Poole 28 58 104 25.2% -1.6 75 8.0 -17
Tyus Jones 31 64 103 18.2% -1.5 67 8.0 -20
Bilal Coulibaly 25 52 107 16.6% -0.8 48 4.5 -11
Kyle Kuzma 30 63 90 29.0% -4.6 14 1.6 -21
Landry Shamet 11 23 83 31.8% -2.3 0 0.0 -6
Eugene Omoruyi 6 13 124 41.8% 0.5 320 0.0 -4
Anthony Gill 5 10 0.0% 0.0 48 0.0 -3
Ryan Rollins 6 13 66 17.4% -1.1 -41 0.0 -4
Mike Muscala 7 15 33 25.4% -3.2 -46 0.0 -2
Danilo Gallinari 5 10 0 15.6% -1.8 -117 0.0 -8
Johnny Davis 6 13 0 5.8% -0.9 -103 0.0 -4
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 6 13 0 11.6% -1.8 -183 0.0 -4

Stats & Metrics: Raptors

RAPTORS MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
RAPTORS MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
Scottie Barnes 33 70 137 22.9% 3.4 327 42.4 10
OG Anunoby 29 62 153 22.6% 5.2 304 34.6 24
Pascal Siakam 32 67 125 28.7% 1.8 182 22.5 16
Dennis Schroder 28 60 132 15.7% 1.5 157 17.3 29
Otto Porter Jr. 13 27 213 9.5% 2.5 287 14.4 12
Gary Trent Jr. 26 55 116 17.5% 0.1 139 14.2 8
Jakob Poeltl 21 45 119 19.9% 0.3 154 12.7 16
Chris Boucher 12 26 132 14.5% 0.6 71 3.4 7
Jalen McDaniels 19 40 91 15.0% -1.5 35 2.5 11
Precious Achiuwa 11 22 76 14.3% -1.2 54 2.2 5
Thaddeus Young 5 10 159 29.3% 1.3 493 0.0 4
Gradey Dick 5 10 217 10.9% 1.1 389 0.0 4
Malachi Flynn 5 10 117 41.1% 0.1 205 0.0 4