clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

The Numbers Crunch: Wizards lose again to the Orlando Magic

Stats, analysis, commentary.

Washington Wizards v Orlando Magic
Washington Wizards guard Tyus Jones played a nearly mistake-free game in the team’s loss to the Orlando Magic.
Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

In the second of consecutive road games against the Orlando Magic, the Washington Wizards stayed competitive but came short again. It was Washington’s second straight loss and dropped their record to 3-16.

The win keeps going Orlando’s feel-good start to 2023-24 season. They’ve now won nine in a row, and their record stands at 14-5. Their strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin is fifth best in the NBA.

By the way, the longest win streak in Washington’s franchise history: nine games. They’ve done it four times, most recently in the 2001-02 season — the first season of Michael Jordan’s two-year stint with the Wizards. They finished that season 37-45 and in 10th place. Washington also accomplished nine-game win streaks in 1978-79, 1969-70, and 1968-69.

Weirdly, Orlando’s longest ever win streak is also nine games, and they’ve also done it four times.

The NBA’s longest ever win streak was 33 by the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers. That squad was led by Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor, and Jerry West, and included a 6-4 guard named Pat Riley.

For context, in their 62 completed seasons, the Wizards/Bullets failed to win 33 or more games 21 times.

Enough history — there was an actual game last night. The big reasons why they lost again: Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma torpedoed the offense, and the team (and its coaching staff) torpedoed the defense. I have more coming on the team’s defense in the next episode of the #SoWizards podcast, which will be out Sunday or Monday.

Musings & Observations

  • Poole had yet another spectacularly awful game. He was 3-12 from the floor and 0-5 from deep. During the fourth quarter of a close game, he went one-on-one against and Jalen Suggs (a superb defender) and ignored Bilal Coulibaly who was one pass away and had Goga Bitadze guarding him.
  • The Wizards found a modicum of success with a zone defense right up until Poole entered the game with about five minutes left. On his first defensive possession, he failed to notice Moritz Wagner running by, and the Magic got a layup. In Poole’s defense, Wagner is only 6-11.
  • Poole’s offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) was an atrocious 96. That’s 18.3 points per 100 possessions below average, 23 points per 100 possessions below the Wizards ortg for the game, and 26 points per 100 possessions below the Magic’s ortg. His ortg for the season: 95.
  • Kuzma shot well — 10-18 from the floor with a pair of threes — but corralled just 6 rebounds in 37 minutes, and committed 6 turnovers and 6 fouls. His offensive rating was a subpar 102.
  • Kuzma and Poole combined to use 40 possessions with an ortg of 99. Their teammates used 66 possessions with an ortg of 129.
  • This was another solid, mistake-free game from Tyus Jones. The numbers weren’t eye-popping (he played just 26 minutes), but he had 13 points on 10 shots (3-5 from deep), plus 6 assists, 2 steals and zero turnovers.
  • Pretty solid game from rookie Bilal Coulibaly, even without counting the last second layup attributable to defensive indifference. He connected on 6-7 from the field, and produced 3 steals in 32 minutes. His usage rate was just 11.0%.
  • Deni Avdija had a poor game — 2-7 from the floor, 0-2 from three, and zero defensive impact. The team defense was at its worst when he was on the game. He did contribute 3 rebounds, 5 assists, and zero turnovers.
  • The Wizards didn’t get crushed on the boards last night. The Magic won the offensive rebounding battle 10-8, and finished with a +4 overall rebounding differential, but Washington was much closer than their norm.
  • Daniel Gafford played well — 18 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 blocks in 27 minutes. He shot 7-10 from the floor, and had five fouls.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

Four Factors: Wizards at Magic

FOUR FACTORS WIZARDS MAGIC
FOUR FACTORS WIZARDS MAGIC
EFG 0.579 0.584
OREB 8 10
TOV 14 14
FTM 22 26
PACE 106
ORTG 118 122

Stats & Metrics

Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s total contributions for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. Reminder: in PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Stats & Metrics: Wizards

WIZARDS MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
WIZARDS MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
Tyus Jones 26 57 151 16.2% 3.4 195 24.2 -4
Bilal Coulibaly 32 70 129 11.0% 1.1 142 21.6 1
Daniel Gafford 27 61 142 22.8% 3.9 160 21.0 -1
Corey Kispert 23 50 131 22.1% 1.9 114 12.5 -2
Danilo Gallinari 21 46 145 10.1% 1.4 107 10.6 -4
Kyle Kuzma 37 83 102 28.3% -3.0 55 9.9 -7
Deni Avdija 20 45 111 16.8% -0.2 49 4.9 -5
Landry Shamet 18 39 113 26.0% -0.1 45 3.8 3
Jordan Poole 30 67 96 24.6% -3.1 -13 0.0 -4
Johnny Davis 6 14 36 13.2% -1.4 -110 0.0 -2

Stats & Metrics: Magic

MAGIC MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
MAGIC MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
Franz Wagner 34 76 150 27.6% 7.4 245 40.7 0
Paolo Banchero 38 84 133 24.6% 3.8 211 38.7 1
Moritz Wagner 23 51 108 29.5% -1.0 188 20.8 9
Joe Ingles 25 55 143 19.0% 3.0 135 16.0 13
Jalen Suggs 27 59 111 21.9% -0.5 110 14.1 10
Jonathan Isaac 7 15 141 14.4% 0.6 174 5.7 10
Goga Bitadze 24 54 105 9.3% -0.5 41 4.8 2
Anthony Black 23 51 116 11.0% 0.1 33 3.7 -5
Cole Anthony 17 38 102 12.3% -0.6 24 2.0 -4
Gary Harris 22 49 17.4% -3.6 -37 0.0 -11