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The Numbers Crunch: Atlanta Hawks embarrass the Wizards

Stats, analysis, commentary.

Atlanta Hawks v Washington Wizards
Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young lit up the Washington Wizards.
Photo by Kenny Giarla/NBAE via Getty Images

On the second night of a back-to-back, the Wizards got blasted by Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks. It was Washington’s ninth consecutive loss, and if they can’t beat the sad-sack Detroit Pistons on Monday, the losing streak could spiral to epic length.

Last night was a no-hoper for the Wizards. The Hawks were guilty of playing with their food in the first half — getting out to double digit leads and then slacking off a bit to let the Wizards stay close. That stopped in the third quarter when Atlanta blitzed the Wizards, 37-20.

The Hawks’ biggest lead of the night was 36 before the Wizards Garbage Time Gang whittled it down to 28. The Wizards never held a lead. Coming a night after they played well against the Milwaukee Bucks, the lackluster effort was both predictable and disappointing.

Musings & Observations

  • The “point Deni” thing isn’t showing a lot of promise. Deni Avdija got some possessions bringing the ball up the court and initiating the half court offense. The Hawks countered by pressuring him full court, which slowed Washington’s offense and limited their options. When he got the ball in the half court, Atlanta defenders forced him left, and he was unable to get to good shots or make plays for teammates. He missed in close and committed three turnovers. The scouting report is out, and he’s going to see a lot more of defenses forcing him to attack to his left hand.
  • Weird game from Kyle Kuzma. He had 12 points, 7 rebounds and 8 assists, plus 5 turnovers, and zero steals or blocks.
  • Back from sitting out with a bruised knee, Bilal Coulibaly was pretty good in the first half and invisible in the second. Even during garbage time minutes, he was unassertive on offense. He also did some over-passing — getting into spots where he should have taken the shot but instead attempted difficult passes in tight spaces. The result: 3 turnovers.
  • A backcourt of Tyus Jones and Corey Kispert was no better than a backcourt of Jones and Jordan Poole. Kispert laid bricks — 3-14 from the floor and 1-10 from deep. He managed 1 rebound and 2 assists in 28 minutes. Jones shot 2-6 from the floor and had 2 turnovers.
  • Washington’s defensive effort and execution was atrocious. On several occasions, they left Young open from three-point range. That’s not scheme or gameplan. That’s lack of effort and poor execution.
  • Atlanta’s starting guards — Young and DeJounte Murray — had 10 assists each. Murray added four steals in 27 minutes. Young had 2 in 30 minutes. Young’s offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) was 150 on a 27.5% usage rate. League average ortg: 114.0.
  • The Hawks joined the growing list of Washington opponents who dominated on the offensive glass. Atlanta had 17 offensive rebounds, which led to 19 second chance points. Clint Capela led the way for Atlanta with 7 offensive rebounds.
  • Coulibaly had Washington’s lowest usage rate — just 10.8%.
  • The Hawks were +40 in Young’s 30 minutes of action.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

Four Factors: Hawks at Wizards

FOUR FACTORS HAWKS WIZARDS
FOUR FACTORS HAWKS WIZARDS
EFG 0.598 0.545
OREB 17 8
TOV 9 20
FTM 14 12
PACE 102
ORTG 133 105

Stats & Metrics

Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s total contributions for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. Reminder: in PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Stats & Metrics: Wizards

WIZARDS MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
WIZARDS MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
Eugene Omoruyi 12 26 158 24.0% 2.7 329 13.6 1
Jared Butler 16 35 133 27.8% 1.8 219 12.4 -5
Mike Muscala 18 38 144 11.4% 1.3 149 9.1 -8
Daniel Gafford 18 39 151 16.1% 2.3 138 8.7 -18
Kyle Kuzma 25 54 97 29.8% -2.7 80 7.0 -25
Landry Shamet 17 35 122 23.5% 0.7 104 5.9 -18
Bilal Coulibaly 32 68 88 10.8% -1.9 43 4.7 -1
Anthony Gill 18 37 115 21.2% 0.1 68 4.1 -8
Johnny Davis 16 34 79 15.7% -1.8 38 2.1 5
Deni Avdija 17 36 84 29.8% -3.2 8 0.5 -17
Tyus Jones 24 52 77 14.9% -2.9 -11 0.0 -18
Corey Kispert 28 60 76 20.7% -4.6 -52 0.0 -28

Stats & Metrics: Hawks

HAWKS MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
HAWKS MIN POSS ORTG USG +PTS PPA GmSC +/-
Trae Young 30 65 150 27.5% 6.3 426 44.7 40
Dejounte Murray 27 57 117 24.1% 0.4 255 23.5 19
De'Andre Hunter 31 66 146 17.1% 3.6 211 22.6 21
Jalen Johnson 8 18 179 23.3% 2.8 552 16.1 7
Bogdan Bogdanovic 21 45 132 20.2% 1.6 166 12.1 13
Onyeka Okongwu 25 53 144 13.3% 2.1 129 11.0 9
Saddiq Bey 32 68 98 18.8% -2.1 95 10.5 30
Clint Capela 18 39 109 32.7% -0.7 164 10.4 21
Garrison Mathews 14 31 220 8.6% 2.8 181 9.0 1
AJ Griffin 6 13 211 16.4% 2.1 388 8.3 -4
Bruno Fernando 5 10 151 29.3% 1.2 251 4.3 -2
Patty Mills 5 10 159 13.7% 0.6 203 3.5 -2
Trent Forrest 9 20 95 14.8% -0.6 -18 0.0 -7
Wesley Matthews 8 17 65 5.8% -0.5 -22 0.0 -6