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By the Numbers: Wizards lose to Los Angeles Clippers, 115-109

Washington Wizards v LA Clippers
Wizards forward Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

The Wizards led by five with 2:37 left in the fourth quarter, but the Los Angeles Clippers closed with an 11-0 run to win, 115-109.

It would have been a great tanking loss if the Wizards were tanking. They’re still trying to win, of course. Last night’s game followed a familiar pattern — the Wizards offense was decent (113 offensive rating is a little better than league average this season), and their defense was bad. The Clippers had a 59.3% effective field goal percentage en route to a 120 offensive rating.

Personal and professional commitments have me tight on time, so I’m skipping straight to the numbers.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide who wins and loses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

I’ve simplified them a bit. While the factors are usually presented as percentages, that’s more useful over a full season. In a single game, the raw numbers in each category are easier to understand.

Four Factors: Wizards 109 at Clippers 115

FOUR FACTORS CLIPPERS WIZARDS
FOUR FACTORS CLIPPERS WIZARDS
EFG 0.593 0.529
OREB 7 9
TOV 12 12
FTM 13 17
PACE 96
ORTG 120 113

Key Stats

Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score (very similar to the one I used to call Scoreboard Impact Rating). PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard in this game. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s total contributions for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. But some readers prefer it, so I’m including PPA scores as well. Reminder: in PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

PTS = points scored

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 112.3. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified slightly by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

Key Stats: Wizards

WIZARDS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
WIZARDS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 35 69 16 145 16.3% 206 25.7 3
Daniel Gafford 22 43 14 126 26.1% 219 17.1 -2
Rui Hachimura 24 48 18 144 22.6% 196 17.0 -3
Ish Smith 16 31 4 132 22.3% 283 15.9 0
Kristaps Porzingis 26 52 19 119 26.7% 97 9.0 -3
Raul Neto 23 46 12 126 22.2% 102 8.5 -2
Corey Kispert 24 48 9 107 15.9% 94 8.1 1
Kyle Kuzma 33 66 17 95 24.4% 65 7.7 -6
Tomas Satoransky 19 38 0 22 7.4% -10 0.0 -11
Deni Avdija 19 39 0 0 12.4% -129 0.0 -7

Key Stats: Clippers

CLIPPERS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
CLIPPERS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
Marcus Morris Sr. 35 71 27 163 22.7% 309 37.3 9
Reggie Jackson 40 80 31 128 29.6% 197 26.8 9
Terance Mann 29 59 9 110 17.3% 172 17.3 18
Luke Kennard 31 63 19 145 18.0% 151 16.1 5
Isaiah Hartenstein 19 38 4 134 10.1% 110 7.2 10
Nicolas Batum 33 67 8 104 12.2% 59 6.8 -5
Ivica Zubac 27 54 10 83 25.2% 38 3.5 -14
Amir Coffey 25 50 7 86 14.4% -6 0.0 -2