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Wizards blast Suns for third straight victory

Stats and analysis of the Washington’s win

Phoenix Suns v Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards forward Rui Hachimura erupted for 30 points on 11-13 shooting in the team’s win against the Phoenix Suns.
Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images

The Wizards faced a tired and short-handed Phoenix Suns and did exactly what they should have — stomped them early and hard. Washington did let their collective foot of Phoenix’s neck and let the Suns back to within one point, but they hit the gas again when Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul got some rest, and coasted home with a 25-point victory.

The story of the game was Rui Hachimura, who detonated the Suns with 30 points on 11-13 shooting. That’s a 195 offensive rating and 26.0% usage, which is outlandish efficiency.

For the Wizards, it was their third consecutive victory and fourth in five games — a relief for the team after 10 straight losses. The recent victories are keeping Washington in contention for the play-in, which continues to be their mission.

Good Stuff

  • Rui Hachimura need just 28 minutes to tie his career high of 30 points. His previous 30-point nights came in 40 minutes against the Charlotte Hornets and 38 minutes vs. the Los Angeles Clippers.
  • The good version of Kyle Kuzma made an appearance — 22 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists on excellent efficiency. He shot 8-17 from the floor, including 2-4 from three, and committed just 1 turnover.
  • Kristaps Porzingis was good — 24 points, 7 rebounds and a steal. His 3 turnovers are edging towards the “too high” range, but he was solid overall, including on the defensive end.
  • Monte Morris played well in his matchup with Chris Paul — 12 points on 8 field goal attempts, 6 rebounds, 8 assists, and his usual zero turnovers.
  • Daniel Gafford rebounded, scored inside and protected the rim, as he and Porzingis continued to play well together. Entering the game, the Wizards had a net rating of +24.0 in 85 minutes with Porzingis and Gafford on the floor together since the team traded to acquire Porzingis last season. That number is likely to be up after last night.
  • Delon Wright was outstanding on defense. He had 3 more steals in just 15 minutes.
  • In garbage time, Johnny Davis made a nice cut down the lane for a layup. He also stepped into a three-point attempt. It missed, but it was good to see him take the shot without hesitation.
  • Don’t get fooled by how close the offensive rebounds totals were — the Wizards annihilated Phoenix on the glass. Washington had 12 offensive rebounds to the Suns’ 19 defensive boards, an offensive rebounding percentage of 38.7%. Phoenix managed a ratio of 11 offensive rebounds to 31 Wizards defensive rebounds, just 24.4%. In total, the Wizards outrebounded the Suns 46-30.

Not So Good Stuff

  • Corey Kispert missed shots — just 2-6 from the floor and 1-5 from three.
  • Deni Avdija made some shots and was good enough on defense, but he also committed three turnovers on just 8 total possessions used.

One Last Thing

Could we put a moratorium on the propaganda that performances like this have been even remotely what Hachimura has done all season? When he was sidelined with the bone bruise in his ankle, Hachimura’s PPA for the season was 67. Reminder: in PPA, 100 is average and higher is better. Replacement level is 45.

In the four games he’s been back, his PPA is a whopping 193. This is a great development for the Wizards — if it continues. He deserves kudos for the past week, but we can also acknowledge the reality that it’s a marked change in his performance. Through the first 16 games of the season, his play was subpar. It’s been great the last four. Now comes the hard part: consistency.

Here’s a quick look at Hachimura’s performance by PPA score range in the 20 games he’s played so far this season:

  • 200+ — 2 (10%)
  • 150+ — 4 (20%)
  • 100+ — 9 (45%)
  • 100> — 11 (55%)
  • 45> — 6 (30%)
  • Negative — 3 (15%)

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

I’ve simplified them a bit. While the factors are usually presented as percentages, I usually find the raw numbers more useful when analyzing a single game.

Four Factors: Suns at Wizards

FOUR FACTORS SUNS WIZARDS
FOUR FACTORS SUNS WIZARDS
EFG 0.523 0.622
OREB 11 12
TOV 11 12
FTM 11 25
PACE 93
ORTG 110 137

Stats & Metrics

Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score (very similar to the one I used to call Scoreboard Impact Rating). PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s total contributions for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. But some readers prefer it, so I’m including PPA scores as well. Reminder: in PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

PTS = points scored

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 112.0. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified slightly by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

Stats & Metrics: Wizards

WIZARDS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
WIZARDS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
Rui Hachimura 28 53 30 194 25.7% 440 42.8 19
Kyle Kuzma 36 69 22 131 24.1% 225 28.1 34
Kristaps Porzingis 34 65 24 125 26.2% 182 21.5 23
Monte Morris 31 59 12 165 15.6% 196 21.0 10
Daniel Gafford 25 48 14 173 16.9% 230 19.9 7
Taj Gibson 10 19 7 122 29.2% 216 7.4 -2
Delon Wright 15 30 3 82 17.6% 118 6.4 14
Deni Avdija 27 52 8 99 15.4% 41 3.9 16
Corey Kispert 28 53 7 93 12.8% 31 3.0 0
Vernon Carey Jr. 2 4 0 252 6.4% 385 2.7 1
Johnny Davis 2 4 2 103 37.9% 288 2.0 1
Anthony Gill 2 4 0 0.0% 0 0.0 1
Jordan Goodwin 2 4 0 64 25.4% -385 0.0 1

Stats & Metrics: Suns

SUNS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
SUNS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
Deandre Ayton 36 70 31 135 31.2% 204 26.0 -5
Mikal Bridges 40 78 17 124 17.6% 147 20.8 -6
Chris Paul 32 61 20 109 29.5% 136 15.1 -14
Duane Washington Jr. 17 33 10 90 32.5% 61 3.6 -11
Jock Landale 16 30 5 142 12.9% 40 2.2 -18
Josh Okogie 21 40 3 77 11.4% 24 1.7 -19
Damion Lee 25 49 8 108 16.5% 10 0.9 -10
Ish Wainwright 13 25 3 115 10.2% -23 0.0 -14
Dario Saric 3 5 0 0 14.2% -166 0.0 -6
Torrey Craig 29 57 5 71 12.5% -18 0.0 -14
Bismack Biyombo 8 16 0 33 12.2% -75 0.0 -8