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Inside the numbers of the Wizards’ stomping of the Pistons

Detroit Pistons v Washington Wizards
Delon Wright’s dominating defensive performance fueled the Washington Wizards 120-99 win over the Detroit Pistons.
Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images

I’m not saying the Wizards are actually good — it’s just four games. But the 120-99 thumping they gave the Detroit Pistons is the type of game good teams have.

The long-standing NBA tradition is to celebrate close games where heroic players come through in the clutch. In truth, winning teams typically build leads and hang on to the final buzzer. When they play a bad team (like the Pistons), the good team stomps them. Not always, of course, but enough that it’s a pattern. Enough that basketball analytics guru, and current Wizards assistant coach, wrote about it.

Good teams don’t win lots of close games, they avoid close games.

Last night, the Wizards avoided a close game by opening a small lead in the second quarter, expanding it in the third and coasting to the end with enough comfort that Johnny Davis got to make his NBA debut during garbage time.

The most dominant player on the floor was reserve guard Delon Wright, despite notching just 5 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists. The Pistons scored with decent efficiency early in the game. When Wright took the floor, he wrecked Detroit’s offense with 4 steals, 1 block and 6 deflections in just 33 possessions. Pistons players couldn’t dribble or pass with Wright in the vicinity. His playing time was limited because of a hamstring problem.

The runner-up in deflections? Detroit’s Jaden Ivey, who had 4 in 29 minutes.

With Bradley Beal sidelined because of back tightness, Will Barton filled in admirably with 16 points on just 9 field goal attempts. Kristaps Porzingis also had a good night offensively, though his defense was lackluster.

Kyle Kuzma led scorers with 25 points, though his came on subpar efficiency.

Other positives: Deni Avdija had a good all-around game (9 points on plus efficiency, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal, 2 blocks and no turnovers). He defended well and even hit a three.

Rui Hachimura had some strong plays in the first half, but his offensive output tailed off, and he was once again largely a non-contributor in other aspects of the game (1 assist, no steals or blocks, and the team defense was significantly worse when he was on the floor). The Pistons outscored the Wizards by 5 with Hachimura in the game — Washington’s only player with a negative on/off.

Detroit’s roster is stocked with youngsters with varying levels of potential. Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart could be the foundation of a good team someday. While each made some impressive plays, none of them rated even average last night.

The Wizards took care of business by pummeling the talented youngsters and recording an easy win.

The Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

I’ve simplified them a bit. While the factors are usually presented as percentages, that’s more useful over a full season. In a single game, the raw numbers in each category are easier to understand.

Four Factors: Pistons 99 at Wizards 120

FOUR FACTORS PISTONS WIZARDS
FOUR FACTORS PISTONS WIZARDS
EFG 0.455 0.576
OREB 11 9
TOV 13 11
FTM 19 22
PACE 98
ORTG 101 122

Key Stats

Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score (very similar to the one I used to call Scoreboard Impact Rating). PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s total contributions for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. But some readers prefer it, so I’m including PPA scores as well. Reminder: in PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

PTS = points scored

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 112.0. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified slightly by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

Key Stats: Wizards

WIZARDS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
WIZARDS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
Delon Wright 16 33 5 154 12.6% 478 31.6 2
Will Barton 29 60 16 164 15.1% 227 27.3 18
Deni Avdija 27 55 9 144 11.1% 165 18.1 12
Bradley Beal 22 45 13 122 28.4% 158 14.2 5
Daniel Gafford 20 40 9 139 15.0% 172 14.0 19
Kristaps Porzingis 25 52 20 126 30.2% 132 13.8 1
Kyle Kuzma 27 56 25 108 36.0% 111 12.5 23
Monte Morris 30 61 9 121 16.2% 92 11.2 19
Rui Hachimura 27 55 10 105 15.3% 62 6.8 -5
Jordan Goodwin 2 5 2 104 44.1% 439 4.2 0
Anthony Gill 7 13 2 124 12.7% 43 1.1 7
Isaiah Todd 3 5 0 0.0% 0 0.0 2
Taj Gibson 3 6 0 0 13.0% -154 0.0 1
Johnny Davis 3 6 0 0 26.0% -347 0.0 1

Key Stats: Pistons

PISTONS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
PISTONS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA GmSC +/-
Bojan Bogdanovic 29 60 25 153 24.7% 196 23.6 -11
Isaiah Stewart 27 56 13 124 17.7% 81 9.1 -13
Hamidou Diallo 17 36 7 125 16.0% 117 8.4 0
Jalen Duren 23 47 6 121 12.9% 77 7.3 -9
Cory Joseph 14 29 5 75 21.0% 102 6.0 0
Jaden Ivey 29 59 11 114 17.8% 50 5.9 -18
Saddiq Bey 27 55 6 115 11.0% 35 3.9 -24
Kevin Knox II 3 7 2 103 22.5% -47 0.0 -5
Cade Cunningham 32 65 19 87 32.3% -23 0.0 -18
Isaiah Livers 20 42 5 82 17.9% -81 0.0 -4
Killian Hayes 17 35 0 0 25.2% -477 0.0 -3