The Wizards got stomped. Again.
The Philadelphia 76ers took them to the woodshed with a 26-point thrashing despite missing Ben Simmons for the entire game, and having Joel Embiid for just 20 minutes.
There’s no particular surprise with the result. The team is in the midst of a brutal stretch of schedule and entered the game expected to lose. They have two more likely losses with the upcoming series against the Milwaukee Bucks before a winnable game against the Kings.
Here are my estimates of their current chances to win upcoming games:
- vs. MIL 19%
- vs. MIL 24%
- vs. SAC 55%
- vs. UTA 14%
- at NYK 31%
- at NYK 31%
- vs. DET 51%
- vs. IND 41%
- vs. CHO 36%
- at DET 36%
The remainder of the season forecast, which went up during the winning streak has stabilized around 26-27 wins. Being on the receiving end of a 26-point thumping dropped their overall projection by just 0.3 wins. In other words, the Wizards seem to have found their level.
Last night, Russell Westbrook and Garrison Mathews played well. The rest of the team? Not so much.
Rui Hachimura, a 6-8 power forward some have compared with Kawhi Leonard, somehow managed zero rebounds in 21 minutes. Moritz Wagner and Robin Lopez were thoroughly dominated by Joel Embiid and the Philly frontcourt.
Sixers wings were free to shoot and drive at will — Furkan Korkmaz, Danny Green, and Matisse Thybulle all had good games.
Below are the four factors that decide who wins and loses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
I’ve simplified them a bit. While the factors are usually presented as percentages, that’s more useful over a full season. In a single game, the raw numbers in each category are easier to understand.
PACE is possessions per 48 minutes.
Four Factors: 76ers at Wizards
Player Production Average
Below are Player Production Average (PPA) results from last night’s game. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls). PPA is a per possession stat that includes accounting for defense and role. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better.
PPA is a per possession stat. The table below is sorted by each player’s total contributions for the game.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
|Troy Brown Jr.||15||32||-64||-9|