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The schedule ahead is still difficult after Wizards blowout loss to the 76ers

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Philadelphia 76ers v Washington Wizards
Wizards wing Garrison Mathews.
Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images

The Wizards got stomped. Again.

The Philadelphia 76ers took them to the woodshed with a 26-point thrashing despite missing Ben Simmons for the entire game, and having Joel Embiid for just 20 minutes.

There’s no particular surprise with the result. The team is in the midst of a brutal stretch of schedule and entered the game expected to lose. They have two more likely losses with the upcoming series against the Milwaukee Bucks before a winnable game against the Kings.

Here are my estimates of their current chances to win upcoming games:

  • vs. MIL 19%
  • vs. MIL 24%
  • vs. SAC 55%
  • vs. UTA 14%
  • at NYK 31%
  • at NYK 31%
  • vs. DET 51%
  • vs. IND 41%
  • vs. CHO 36%
  • at DET 36%

The remainder of the season forecast, which went up during the winning streak has stabilized around 26-27 wins. Being on the receiving end of a 26-point thumping dropped their overall projection by just 0.3 wins. In other words, the Wizards seem to have found their level.

Last night, Russell Westbrook and Garrison Mathews played well. The rest of the team? Not so much.

Rui Hachimura, a 6-8 power forward some have compared with Kawhi Leonard, somehow managed zero rebounds in 21 minutes. Moritz Wagner and Robin Lopez were thoroughly dominated by Joel Embiid and the Philly frontcourt.

Sixers wings were free to shoot and drive at will — Furkan Korkmaz, Danny Green, and Matisse Thybulle all had good games.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide who wins and loses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

I’ve simplified them a bit. While the factors are usually presented as percentages, that’s more useful over a full season. In a single game, the raw numbers in each category are easier to understand.

PACE is possessions per 48 minutes.

Four Factors: 76ers at Wizards

FOUR FACTORS 76ERS WIZARDS
FOUR FACTORS 76ERS WIZARDS
EFG 0.606 0.537
OREB 10 6
TOV 16 18
FTM 18 13
PACE 102
ORTG 124 99

Player Production Average

Below are Player Production Average (PPA) results from last night’s game. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls). PPA is a per possession stat that includes accounting for defense and role. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better.

PPA is a per possession stat. The table below is sorted by each player’s total contributions for the game.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

Wizards PPA

WIZARDS MIN POSS PPA +/-
WIZARDS MIN POSS PPA +/-
Russell Westbrook 33 70 148 -24
Garrison Mathews 22 46 120 -13
Alex Len 6 13 329 1
Bradley Beal 29 61 62 -16
Rui Hachimura 21 45 82 -20
Cassius Winston 6 13 256 1
Raul Neto 22 46 64 -14
Robin Lopez 26 56 49 -8
Moritz Wagner 15 33 19 -19
Troy Brown Jr. 15 32 -64 -9
Davis Bertans 10 22 -108 -4
Isaac Bonga 6 13 -205 1
Deni Avdija 28 60 -65 -6

76ers PPA

76ERS MIN POSS PPA +/-
76ERS MIN POSS PPA +/-
Furkan Korkmaz 25 52 300 7
Danny Green 31 67 225 24
Joel Embiid 20 43 329 22
Matisse Thybulle 22 46 216 22
Shake Milton 26 56 175 10
Mike Scott 21 45 170 12
Tobias Harris 23 50 108 19
Seth Curry 30 64 73 23
Tony Bradley 9 20 195 3
Dwight Howard 18 39 78 1
Tyrese Maxey 6 13 26 -1
Terrance Ferguson 4 7 -106 -6
Vincent Poirier 4 7 -280 -6