The Wizards have the NBA’s third worst record, and looking at their production scores, it’s easy to see why. According to my Player Production Average (PPA) metric, Bradley Beal is playing at an All-Star level and Washington’s other high-minute guys are playing like crap.
The team’s second most productive player was Thomas Bryant, who will miss the rest of the season with a torn knee ligament.
PPA credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls). PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor. There’s also an accounting for role/position. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45. It usually takes a score of 200 or higher to be part of the MVP conversation.
So far this season, Washington ranks 24th in scoring margin while facing the league’s third easiest schedule. In strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin, they’re 27th. They’re 11th in points scored per 100 possessions, and 29th in defense. And they have the NBA’s third worst winning percentage.
The drag on their offensive efficiency has been mediocre shooting and a lack of offensive rebounding. On the other end, they’re dead last in defensive effective field goal percentage (by the far the most important factor in NBA defense), they foul more than anyone except the Golden State Warriors, and they’re just average at forcing turnovers. They’ve largely cleaned up their defensive rebounding woes from last season (they’re 9th in defensive rebounding percentage). But their failure to make the other team miss consigns to the bottom of the rankings.
Beal is number one in All-Star votes so far. His league-leading scoring makes him a lock for the honor. Here’s how the All-Star rosters would look, according to PPA.
2021 PPA All-Stars through Feb. 4
EAST |
PLAYER |
TEAM |
PPA |
WEST |
PLAYER |
TEAM |
PPA |
EAST |
PLAYER |
TEAM |
PPA |
WEST |
PLAYER |
TEAM |
PPA |
G |
Kyrie Irving |
BRK |
212 |
G |
CJ McCollum |
POR |
223 |
G |
James Harden |
BRK |
183 |
G |
Stephen Curry |
GSW |
216 |
F |
Jimmy Butler |
MIA |
237 |
F |
Kawhi Leonard |
LAC |
255 |
F |
Joel Embiid |
PHI |
220 |
F |
Nikola Jokic |
DEN |
221 |
F |
Giannis Antetokounmpo |
MIL |
203 |
F |
Lebron James |
LAL |
217 |
G |
Jaylen Brown |
BOS |
183 |
G |
Damian Lillard |
POR |
206 |
G |
Jrue Holiday |
MIL |
182 |
G |
Luka Doncic |
DAL |
192 |
F |
Kevin Durant |
BRK |
202 |
F |
Antony Davis |
LAL |
213 |
F |
Khris Middleton |
MIL |
200 |
F |
Paul George |
LAC |
205 |
F |
Clint Capela |
ATL |
178 |
F |
Christian Wood |
HOU |
186 |
O |
Jayson Tatum |
BOS |
175 |
O |
Mike Conley |
UTA |
190 |
O |
Bradley Beal |
WAS |
171 |
O |
Zion Williamson |
NOP |
183 |
Below are PPA scores for the Wizards and their next seven opponents through games played February 4.
Wizards PPA through Feb. 4
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
Bradley Beal |
SG |
27 |
17 |
36.1 |
171 |
Thomas Bryant |
C |
23 |
10 |
27.1 |
130 |
Garrison Mathews |
SG |
24 |
12 |
18.9 |
106 |
Deni Avdija |
SF |
20 |
14 |
23.3 |
105 |
Raul Neto |
PG |
28 |
14 |
17.8 |
96 |
Rui Hachimura |
PF |
22 |
11 |
28.7 |
96 |
Robin Lopez |
C |
32 |
18 |
17.9 |
93 |
Moritz Wagner |
C |
23 |
8 |
14.4 |
85 |
Russell Westbrook |
PG |
32 |
12 |
34.0 |
84 |
Alex Len |
C |
27 |
7 |
14.7 |
84 |
Ish Smith |
PG |
32 |
14 |
20.7 |
65 |
Cassius Winston |
PG |
22 |
6 |
7.3 |
50 |
Isaac Bonga |
SF |
21 |
14 |
14.1 |
42 |
Anthony Gill |
PF |
28 |
8 |
7.5 |
40 |
Dāvis Bertāns |
PF |
28 |
15 |
25.1 |
36 |
Jordan Bell |
C |
26 |
3 |
16.7 |
35 |
Troy Brown Jr. |
SF |
21 |
8 |
18.0 |
28 |
Jerome Robinson |
SG |
23 |
10 |
20.1 |
13 |
Anžejs Pasečņiks |
C |
25 |
1 |
6.0 |
-347 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Miami Heat PPA through Feb. 4
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
Jimmy Butler |
SF |
31 |
9 |
31.3 |
237 |
Bam Adebayo |
C |
23 |
19 |
33.2 |
159 |
Precious Achiuwa |
PF |
21 |
21 |
15.7 |
94 |
Duncan Robinson |
SF |
26 |
21 |
33.6 |
89 |
Kelly Olynyk |
C |
29 |
20 |
26.3 |
77 |
Tyler Herro |
SG |
21 |
14 |
34.1 |
77 |
Andre Iguodala |
SF |
37 |
19 |
21.1 |
74 |
Kendrick Nunn |
PG |
25 |
13 |
25.7 |
67 |
Goran Dragić |
PG |
34 |
16 |
26.8 |
66 |
Chris Silva |
PF |
24 |
6 |
8.8 |
62 |
Max Strus |
SF |
24 |
12 |
14.4 |
59 |
Avery Bradley |
SG |
30 |
10 |
21.1 |
57 |
Meyers Leonard |
C |
28 |
3 |
9.7 |
21 |
Maurice Harkless |
SF |
27 |
9 |
10.7 |
14 |
KZ Okpala |
PF |
21 |
12 |
13.7 |
1 |
Gabe Vincent |
PG |
24 |
12 |
20.8 |
-7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Charlotte Hornets PPA through Feb. 4
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
Gordon Hayward |
SF |
30 |
21 |
36.0 |
161 |
Vernon Carey Jr. |
C |
19 |
3 |
2.0 |
148 |
Terry Rozier |
SG |
26 |
20 |
32.9 |
141 |
Cody Zeller |
C |
28 |
9 |
24.8 |
114 |
P.J. Washington |
PF |
22 |
21 |
29.0 |
112 |
Malik Monk |
SG |
22 |
9 |
17.3 |
110 |
LaMelo Ball |
PG |
19 |
22 |
26.0 |
109 |
Devonte' Graham |
PG |
25 |
22 |
34.6 |
107 |
Nick Richards |
PF |
23 |
5 |
2.4 |
97 |
Caleb Martin |
SF |
25 |
19 |
14.7 |
91 |
Cody Martin |
SF |
25 |
13 |
10.1 |
88 |
Bismack Biyombo |
C |
28 |
20 |
24.2 |
78 |
Miles Bridges |
PF |
22 |
22 |
26.1 |
71 |
Jalen McDaniels |
SF |
23 |
9 |
9.2 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chicago Bulls PPA through Feb. 4
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
Cristiano Felício |
C |
28 |
3 |
6.0 |
158 |
Zach LaVine |
SG |
25 |
20 |
35.5 |
152 |
Lauri Markkanen |
PF |
23 |
13 |
31.5 |
137 |
Otto Porter |
SF |
27 |
16 |
23.3 |
128 |
Daniel Gafford |
PF |
22 |
18 |
14.8 |
122 |
Thaddeus Young |
PF |
32 |
16 |
25.0 |
119 |
Wendell Carter Jr. |
C |
21 |
14 |
26.9 |
100 |
Ryan Arcidiacono |
PG |
26 |
5 |
13.0 |
90 |
Denzel Valentine |
SG |
27 |
16 |
17.1 |
87 |
Tomáš Satoranský |
SG |
29 |
9 |
16.9 |
68 |
Coby White |
PG |
20 |
20 |
33.9 |
62 |
Garrett Temple |
SG |
34 |
19 |
26.2 |
57 |
Patrick Williams |
PF |
19 |
19 |
25.8 |
57 |
Devon Dotson |
PG |
21 |
1 |
10.0 |
8 |
Adam Mokoka |
SG |
22 |
6 |
6.8 |
5 |
Luke Kornet |
PF |
25 |
1 |
7.0 |
-23 |
Chandler Hutchison |
SF |
24 |
6 |
10.0 |
-24 |
Toronto Raptors PPA through Feb. 4
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
Fred VanVleet |
SG |
26 |
21 |
36.0 |
170 |
Paul Watson |
SF |
26 |
10 |
3.3 |
145 |
OG Anunoby |
SF |
23 |
17 |
34.8 |
140 |
Chris Boucher |
C |
28 |
21 |
22.2 |
135 |
Kyle Lowry |
PG |
34 |
18 |
36.1 |
119 |
Pascal Siakam |
PF |
26 |
18 |
35.6 |
104 |
Norman Powell |
SG |
27 |
19 |
26.1 |
98 |
DeAndre' Bembry |
SF |
26 |
12 |
8.9 |
82 |
Yuta Watanabe |
SF |
26 |
15 |
12.6 |
82 |
Matt Thomas |
SG |
26 |
11 |
6.6 |
75 |
Stanley Johnson |
PF |
24 |
19 |
15.6 |
69 |
Terence Davis |
SG |
23 |
16 |
13.7 |
63 |
Aron Baynes |
C |
34 |
18 |
18.6 |
45 |
Malachi Flynn |
PG |
22 |
13 |
8.2 |
-1 |
Alex Len |
C |
27 |
7 |
10.9 |
-7 |
Jalen Harris |
SG |
22 |
2 |
2.0 |
-146 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
New York Knicks PPA through Feb. 4
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
Mitchell Robinson |
C |
22 |
23 |
28.8 |
155 |
Julius Randle |
PF |
26 |
23 |
36.7 |
145 |
Alec Burks |
SG |
29 |
11 |
25.8 |
110 |
Immanuel Quickley |
PG |
21 |
19 |
19.3 |
88 |
RJ Barrett |
SG |
20 |
23 |
35.8 |
78 |
Nerlens Noel |
C |
26 |
20 |
17.5 |
76 |
Frank Ntilikina |
PG |
22 |
4 |
10.5 |
63 |
Austin Rivers |
SG |
28 |
17 |
24.2 |
58 |
Ignas Brazdeikis |
SF |
22 |
4 |
1.8 |
53 |
Elfrid Payton |
PG |
26 |
23 |
28.1 |
52 |
Obi Toppin |
PF |
22 |
13 |
12.0 |
45 |
Reggie Bullock |
SF |
29 |
18 |
27.2 |
44 |
Kevin Knox |
SF |
21 |
20 |
18.2 |
35 |
Dennis Smith Jr. |
PG |
23 |
3 |
9.3 |
-6 |
Taj Gibson |
PF |
35 |
2 |
9.5 |
-9 |
Theo Pinson |
SG |
25 |
7 |
2.4 |
-110 |
Jared Harper |
PG |
23 |
2 |
2.5 |
-184 |
Boston Celtics PPA through Feb. 4
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
Jaylen Brown |
SG |
24 |
20 |
33.1 |
183 |
Jayson Tatum |
SF |
22 |
15 |
35.3 |
175 |
Robert Williams |
C |
23 |
15 |
15.3 |
141 |
Daniel Theis |
C |
28 |
20 |
23.7 |
119 |
Kemba Walker |
PG |
30 |
7 |
25.7 |
117 |
Marcus Smart |
PG |
26 |
17 |
32.3 |
114 |
Tristan Thompson |
PF |
29 |
18 |
22.4 |
99 |
Tacko Fall |
C |
25 |
4 |
10.5 |
86 |
Payton Pritchard |
SG |
23 |
14 |
20.9 |
78 |
Javonte Green |
SG |
27 |
12 |
17.3 |
76 |
Carsen Edwards |
SG |
22 |
8 |
9.0 |
69 |
Semi Ojeleye |
PF |
26 |
19 |
17.4 |
52 |
Jeff Teague |
PG |
32 |
18 |
18.2 |
45 |
Grant Williams |
PF |
22 |
17 |
17.8 |
34 |
Tremont Waters |
PG |
23 |
7 |
12.0 |
-1 |
Aaron Nesmith |
SF |
21 |
9 |
12.8 |
-26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Houston Rockets PPA through Feb. 4
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
GMS |
MPG |
PPA |
Christian Wood |
C |
25 |
17 |
31.2 |
186 |
John Wall |
PG |
30 |
13 |
29.8 |
141 |
Eric Gordon |
SG |
32 |
17 |
28.1 |
114 |
David Nwaba |
SF |
28 |
17 |
22.6 |
110 |
Sterling Brown |
SG |
25 |
19 |
20.6 |
109 |
Jae'Sean Tate |
SF |
25 |
21 |
26.0 |
95 |
Mason Jones |
SG |
22 |
13 |
11.8 |
90 |
Victor Oladipo |
SG |
28 |
8 |
31.8 |
83 |
Danuel House |
SF |
27 |
10 |
27.4 |
68 |
DeMarcus Cousins |
C |
30 |
18 |
18.1 |
66 |
P.J. Tucker |
PF |
35 |
21 |
30.7 |
49 |
Ben McLemore |
SG |
27 |
14 |
16.5 |
40 |
Kenyon Martin Jr. |
SF |
20 |
7 |
9.9 |
23 |
Bruno Caboclo |
PF |
25 |
6 |
6.0 |
4 |
Brodric Thomas |
SG |
24 |
4 |
6.0 |
-20 |
Rodions Kurucs |
SF |
22 |
6 |
7.8 |
-21 |