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For the Wizards, it’s Bradley Beal and not much else

A peek at the numbers behind Washington posting the league’s third-worst winning percentage.

By Kevin Broom
Washington Wizards v Miami Heat
Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal and grumpy old man Russell Westbrook confer.
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

The Wizards have the NBA’s third worst record, and looking at their production scores, it’s easy to see why. According to my Player Production Average (PPA) metric, Bradley Beal is playing at an All-Star level and Washington’s other high-minute guys are playing like crap.

The team’s second most productive player was Thomas Bryant, who will miss the rest of the season with a torn knee ligament.

PPA credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls). PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor. There’s also an accounting for role/position. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45. It usually takes a score of 200 or higher to be part of the MVP conversation.

So far this season, Washington ranks 24th in scoring margin while facing the league’s third easiest schedule. In strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin, they’re 27th. They’re 11th in points scored per 100 possessions, and 29th in defense. And they have the NBA’s third worst winning percentage.

The drag on their offensive efficiency has been mediocre shooting and a lack of offensive rebounding. On the other end, they’re dead last in defensive effective field goal percentage (by the far the most important factor in NBA defense), they foul more than anyone except the Golden State Warriors, and they’re just average at forcing turnovers. They’ve largely cleaned up their defensive rebounding woes from last season (they’re 9th in defensive rebounding percentage). But their failure to make the other team miss consigns to the bottom of the rankings.

Beal is number one in All-Star votes so far. His league-leading scoring makes him a lock for the honor. Here’s how the All-Star rosters would look, according to PPA.

2021 PPA All-Stars through Feb. 4

EAST PLAYER TEAM PPA WEST PLAYER TEAM PPA
EAST PLAYER TEAM PPA WEST PLAYER TEAM PPA
G Kyrie Irving BRK 212 G CJ McCollum POR 223
G James Harden BRK 183 G Stephen Curry GSW 216
F Jimmy Butler MIA 237 F Kawhi Leonard LAC 255
F Joel Embiid PHI 220 F Nikola Jokic DEN 221
F Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 203 F Lebron James LAL 217
G Jaylen Brown BOS 183 G Damian Lillard POR 206
G Jrue Holiday MIL 182 G Luka Doncic DAL 192
F Kevin Durant BRK 202 F Antony Davis LAL 213
F Khris Middleton MIL 200 F Paul George LAC 205
F Clint Capela ATL 178 F Christian Wood HOU 186
O Jayson Tatum BOS 175 O Mike Conley UTA 190
O Bradley Beal WAS 171 O Zion Williamson NOP 183

Below are PPA scores for the Wizards and their next seven opponents through games played February 4.

Wizards PPA through Feb. 4

PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
Bradley Beal SG 27 17 36.1 171
Thomas Bryant C 23 10 27.1 130
Garrison Mathews SG 24 12 18.9 106
Deni Avdija SF 20 14 23.3 105
Raul Neto PG 28 14 17.8 96
Rui Hachimura PF 22 11 28.7 96
Robin Lopez C 32 18 17.9 93
Moritz Wagner C 23 8 14.4 85
Russell Westbrook PG 32 12 34.0 84
Alex Len C 27 7 14.7 84
Ish Smith PG 32 14 20.7 65
Cassius Winston PG 22 6 7.3 50
Isaac Bonga SF 21 14 14.1 42
Anthony Gill PF 28 8 7.5 40
Dāvis Bertāns PF 28 15 25.1 36
Jordan Bell C 26 3 16.7 35
Troy Brown Jr. SF 21 8 18.0 28
Jerome Robinson SG 23 10 20.1 13
Anžejs Pasečņiks C 25 1 6.0 -347

Miami Heat PPA through Feb. 4

PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
Jimmy Butler SF 31 9 31.3 237
Bam Adebayo C 23 19 33.2 159
Precious Achiuwa PF 21 21 15.7 94
Duncan Robinson SF 26 21 33.6 89
Kelly Olynyk C 29 20 26.3 77
Tyler Herro SG 21 14 34.1 77
Andre Iguodala SF 37 19 21.1 74
Kendrick Nunn PG 25 13 25.7 67
Goran Dragić PG 34 16 26.8 66
Chris Silva PF 24 6 8.8 62
Max Strus SF 24 12 14.4 59
Avery Bradley SG 30 10 21.1 57
Meyers Leonard C 28 3 9.7 21
Maurice Harkless SF 27 9 10.7 14
KZ Okpala PF 21 12 13.7 1
Gabe Vincent PG 24 12 20.8 -7

Charlotte Hornets PPA through Feb. 4

PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
Gordon Hayward SF 30 21 36.0 161
Vernon Carey Jr. C 19 3 2.0 148
Terry Rozier SG 26 20 32.9 141
Cody Zeller C 28 9 24.8 114
P.J. Washington PF 22 21 29.0 112
Malik Monk SG 22 9 17.3 110
LaMelo Ball PG 19 22 26.0 109
Devonte' Graham PG 25 22 34.6 107
Nick Richards PF 23 5 2.4 97
Caleb Martin SF 25 19 14.7 91
Cody Martin SF 25 13 10.1 88
Bismack Biyombo C 28 20 24.2 78
Miles Bridges PF 22 22 26.1 71
Jalen McDaniels SF 23 9 9.2 19

Chicago Bulls PPA through Feb. 4

PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
Cristiano Felício C 28 3 6.0 158
Zach LaVine SG 25 20 35.5 152
Lauri Markkanen PF 23 13 31.5 137
Otto Porter SF 27 16 23.3 128
Daniel Gafford PF 22 18 14.8 122
Thaddeus Young PF 32 16 25.0 119
Wendell Carter Jr. C 21 14 26.9 100
Ryan Arcidiacono PG 26 5 13.0 90
Denzel Valentine SG 27 16 17.1 87
Tomáš Satoranský SG 29 9 16.9 68
Coby White PG 20 20 33.9 62
Garrett Temple SG 34 19 26.2 57
Patrick Williams PF 19 19 25.8 57
Devon Dotson PG 21 1 10.0 8
Adam Mokoka SG 22 6 6.8 5
Luke Kornet PF 25 1 7.0 -23
Chandler Hutchison SF 24 6 10.0 -24

Toronto Raptors PPA through Feb. 4

PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
Fred VanVleet SG 26 21 36.0 170
Paul Watson SF 26 10 3.3 145
OG Anunoby SF 23 17 34.8 140
Chris Boucher C 28 21 22.2 135
Kyle Lowry PG 34 18 36.1 119
Pascal Siakam PF 26 18 35.6 104
Norman Powell SG 27 19 26.1 98
DeAndre' Bembry SF 26 12 8.9 82
Yuta Watanabe SF 26 15 12.6 82
Matt Thomas SG 26 11 6.6 75
Stanley Johnson PF 24 19 15.6 69
Terence Davis SG 23 16 13.7 63
Aron Baynes C 34 18 18.6 45
Malachi Flynn PG 22 13 8.2 -1
Alex Len C 27 7 10.9 -7
Jalen Harris SG 22 2 2.0 -146

New York Knicks PPA through Feb. 4

PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
Mitchell Robinson C 22 23 28.8 155
Julius Randle PF 26 23 36.7 145
Alec Burks SG 29 11 25.8 110
Immanuel Quickley PG 21 19 19.3 88
RJ Barrett SG 20 23 35.8 78
Nerlens Noel C 26 20 17.5 76
Frank Ntilikina PG 22 4 10.5 63
Austin Rivers SG 28 17 24.2 58
Ignas Brazdeikis SF 22 4 1.8 53
Elfrid Payton PG 26 23 28.1 52
Obi Toppin PF 22 13 12.0 45
Reggie Bullock SF 29 18 27.2 44
Kevin Knox SF 21 20 18.2 35
Dennis Smith Jr. PG 23 3 9.3 -6
Taj Gibson PF 35 2 9.5 -9
Theo Pinson SG 25 7 2.4 -110
Jared Harper PG 23 2 2.5 -184

Boston Celtics PPA through Feb. 4

PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
Jaylen Brown SG 24 20 33.1 183
Jayson Tatum SF 22 15 35.3 175
Robert Williams C 23 15 15.3 141
Daniel Theis C 28 20 23.7 119
Kemba Walker PG 30 7 25.7 117
Marcus Smart PG 26 17 32.3 114
Tristan Thompson PF 29 18 22.4 99
Tacko Fall C 25 4 10.5 86
Payton Pritchard SG 23 14 20.9 78
Javonte Green SG 27 12 17.3 76
Carsen Edwards SG 22 8 9.0 69
Semi Ojeleye PF 26 19 17.4 52
Jeff Teague PG 32 18 18.2 45
Grant Williams PF 22 17 17.8 34
Tremont Waters PG 23 7 12.0 -1
Aaron Nesmith SF 21 9 12.8 -26

Houston Rockets PPA through Feb. 4

PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
PLAYER POS AGE GMS MPG PPA
Christian Wood C 25 17 31.2 186
John Wall PG 30 13 29.8 141
Eric Gordon SG 32 17 28.1 114
David Nwaba SF 28 17 22.6 110
Sterling Brown SG 25 19 20.6 109
Jae'Sean Tate SF 25 21 26.0 95
Mason Jones SG 22 13 11.8 90
Victor Oladipo SG 28 8 31.8 83
Danuel House SF 27 10 27.4 68
DeMarcus Cousins C 30 18 18.1 66
P.J. Tucker PF 35 21 30.7 49
Ben McLemore SG 27 14 16.5 40
Kenyon Martin Jr. SF 20 7 9.9 23
Bruno Caboclo PF 25 6 6.0 4
Brodric Thomas SG 24 4 6.0 -20
Rodions Kurucs SF 22 6 7.8 -21