Wizards PPA update, plus All-Star rosters and top rookies

Pop quiz: Look at the numbers below and choose Player A or Player B.

Defense is about the same between the two.

Stats are presented per some number of possessions.

creat is short for Box Creation, which is a metric invented by Ben Taylor (author of Thinking Basketball) to measure playmaking. It’s scale is similar to assists, but it’s built on Taylor’s extensive tracking of games, and it accounts for how a player’s scoring and gravity create opportunities for teammates.

I’ll reveal identities after the poll closes at noon on Feb. 20.

EDIT Feb. 20, 2021 after poll closed.

As some in the comments had already sleuthed, Player A is Zach LaVine and Player B is Bradley Beal.

The reader vote:

• LaVine: 107
• Beal: 15

Now, let’s be clear that the numbers I posted do NOT show LaVine is “better” than Beal. The data shows their performances are fairly close overall so far this season. LaVine is having the best season of his career, and it’ll be interesting to see if he’s broken through to a new level or if it’s just an outlier for him. This is Beal’s third or fourth season at this level.

The point of this exercise is not a “trick.” Rather, it’s a way of illustrating the power of narrative. What the data are saying about these two is their overall performances are “about the same” so far this season. It’s reasonable to place more value on Beal because he’s produced at this level for longer, but it would also be reasonable to place more value on LaVine because he’s two years younger and is more of an outlier athlete.

Last time I put together a season update, the Wizards were at the bottom of the standings and ranked among the team’s weakest teams. Despite a three-game winning streak, that’s largely unchanged.

Bradley Beal getting named a starter in the All-Star game gives the team and its fans something to celebrate. Beal leads the NBA in scoring, and his varied offensive attack has captured attention leaguewide.

With the starters named, here’s who my Player Production Average says should be in this year’s All-Star game:

I’ve included in the table the players with the highest scores who had at least 350 total minutes. Also included are the top three injury replacements for each conference. It’s possible that CJ McCollum, Anthony Davis, and Christian Wood could end up missing the game.

PPA credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls). PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor. There’s also an accounting for role/position. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45. It usually takes a score of 200 or higher to be part of the MVP conversation.

Since it’s a question I get constantly, here are scores for rookies with at least 200 minutes played this season:

Here’s the PPA update for the Wizards — the last was Feb. 4. As the table below shows, most of the players were less productive over the past couple weeks than they were before the COVID layoff. The biggest improvers were Alex Len and Davis Bertans. The biggest dropoff was from Avdija, whose production plummeted from about average to well-below average.

Some PPA scores for former Wizards (let me know in the comments if I miss anyone):

Send questions, thoughts, requests for specific players, and “get out of your mom’s basement, nerd” snortling to the comments or to me directly at kevinbroomwrites at gmail dot com.