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No Gafford, no Dinwiddie, no problem as Wizards beat Hawks

Atlanta Hawks v Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards center Montrezl Harrell dominated inside in the team’s 122-111 win over the Atlanta Hawks.
Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images

With Spencer Dinwiddie sitting this one out to rest, and Daniel Gafford sidelined with a quad contusion, the Washington Wizards rolled up a 20-point lead before fighting off an Atlanta Hawks rally to by 11 and run their record to 4-1.

This was a “good win” against a quality opponent. The Hawks were preseason picks almost everywhere to end up among the Eastern Conference’s top four seeds. That’s still where they’re likely to end up. But last night, the Wizards made life tough for All-Star guard Trae Young and played well enough notch a convincing victory.

They did it in somewhat unorthodox fashion. As I’ve previously written, the team that shoots best in a game wins 78% of the time in the NBA. In this one, the Hawks outshot the Wizards 58.0% (effective field goal percentage) to 53.0%, and the Wizards won because of decisive differentials in each of the other four factors.

The Wizards got positive contributions that ran seven deep. Montrezl Harrell (a hyper-efficient 25 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists — plus 2 steals and a block) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (a hyper-efficient 21 points on just 10 field goal attempts, and 8 rebounds) were terrific.

Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal were good, and the team got solid play from Aaron Holiday, Raul Neto and Davis Bertans. Corey Kispert barely played (and not well), and Deni Avdija had a rough outing.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide who wins and loses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

I’ve simplified them a bit. While the factors are usually presented as percentages, that’s more useful over a full season. In a single game, the raw numbers in each category are easier to understand.

PACE is possessions per 48 minutes.

Hawks 111 at Wizards 122

FOUR FACTORS HAWKS WIZARDS
FOUR FACTORS HAWKS WIZARDS
EFG 0.580 0.530
OREB 6 14
TOV 13 6
FTM 9 17
PACE 99
ORTG 112 123

Player Production Average

Player Production Average (PPA) is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls). PPA is a per possession stat that includes accounting for defense and role. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better.

The table below is sorted by each player’s total contributions for the game.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

PTS = points scored

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 112.3.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are slightly modified versions of stats created by Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified slightly by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

Wizards: Key Stats

WIZARDS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA +/-
WIZARDS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA +/-
Montrezl Harrell 34 70 25 162 23.8% 302 16
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 30 62 21 163 18.9% 291 10
Kyle Kuzma 40 82 21 113 18.7% 134 9
Bradley Beal 38 78 27 112 31.0% 121 7
Aaron Holiday 24 50 7 144 10.8% 91 9
Raul Neto 24 49 6 119 13.0% 88 2
Davis Bertans 19 39 10 120 17.0% 77 -5
Corey Kispert 9 19 0 84 11.8% 54 5
Deni Avdija 22 46 5 66 20.5% -98 2

Hawks: Key Stats

HAWKS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA +/-
HAWKS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA +/-
John Collins 38 79 28 161 20.4% 231 -9
Trae Young 35 72 15 99 29.5% 103 -8
Bogdan Bogdanovic 34 69 14 139 14.5% 100 -11
Cam Reddish 27 56 20 101 30.9% 91 -4
Clint Capela 23 48 11 145 13.7% 96 -10
Danilo Gallinari 18 37 6 141 9.6% 75 -2
Lou Williams 8 16 5 127 24.1% 173 4
Gorgui Dieng 7 14 0 58 16.3% 31 -2
Delon Wright 6 11 2 86 16.0% 0 -7
De'Andre Hunter 31 63 10 92 14.7% 1 -6
Kevin Huerter 14 30 0 39 16.7% -135 0