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Wizards ride hot shooting to win in overtime against Indiana Pacers

Indiana Pacers v Washington Wizards
Wizards forward Davis Bertans hit a step-back three with 35 seconds remaining in overtime to put the team up for good against the Indiana Pacers.
Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

The Washington Wizards squeaked out a one-point overtime win against the Indiana Pacers despite the absence of All-NBA guard Bradley Beal (hip contusion). As makes sense for an overtime game, the margins across the board were Manute Bol thin.

Defense was lacking on both ends of the court. The Pacers had an effective field goal percentage of 61.3% and lost because the Wizards shot better — 62.2%.

Washington had few answers inside against Myles Turner (40 points on 22 field goal attempts, as well as 10 rebounds and 3 blocks) and Domantas Sabonis (28 points on 13 FGA plus 9 boards and 7 assists). Malcolm Brogdon was good — 28-8-8 on 12-22 shooting, plus 2 steals and a block.

The Wizards were led by Spencer Dinwiddie (34 points, 6 rebounds, 9 assists — and an offensive rating (points produced per individual possession x 100) of 143. Kyle Kuzma played a much better game two, hitting 10-17 from the floor and 5-8 from three en route to 26 points and 11 rebounds. Raul Neto was outstanding — 18 points on 11 shots, plus 3 assists, 2 steals and a block.

Davis Bertans bounced back from a first game debacle with 4 threes, including a step-back three with 35 seconds left in overtime to put the Wizards ahead for good.

After excellent performances against the Raptors, Daniel Gafford and Montrezl Harrell had rougher outings against Turner and Sabonis.

Weird stat of the night: The Pacers were +18 in Jeremy Lamb’s 24 minutes, and Lamb’s individual production was below replacement level.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide who wins and loses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

I’ve simplified them a bit. While the factors are usually presented as percentages, that’s more useful over a full season. In a single game, the raw numbers in each category are easier to understand.

PACE is possessions per 48 minutes.

Pacers 134 at Wizards 135, OT

FOUR FACTORS PACERS WIZARDS
FOUR FACTORS PACERS WIZARDS
EFG 0.613 0.622
OREB 7 6
TOV 12 9
FTM 15 18
PACE 96
ORTG 126 127

Player Production Average

Player Production Average (PPA) is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls). PPA is a per possession stat that includes accounting for defense and role. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better.

The table below is sorted by each player’s total contributions for the game.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

PTS = points scored

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 112.3.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are slightly modified versions of stats created by Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified slightly by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

Wizards PPA

WIZARDS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA +/-
WIZARDS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA +/-
Spencer Dinwiddie 35 70 34 143 35.7% 295 3
Kyle Kuzma 39 77 26 132 23.6% 208 -12
Raul Neto 29 59 18 140 21.0% 203 -6
Davis Bertans 23 46 17 124 26.9% 150 11
Aaron Holiday 25 50 7 123 13.4% 82 -2
Montrezl Harrell 34 69 14 121 17.5% 53 9
Daniel Gafford 18 37 8 135 15.8% 77 -8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 35 70 7 135 7.8% 16 1
Corey Kispert 10 20 2 75 15.1% -5 8
Deni Avdija 17 34 2 59 11.5% -69 1

Pacers PPA

PACERS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA +/-
PACERS MIN POSS PTS ORTG USG PPA +/-
Myles Turner 44 87 40 162 25.9% 289 3
Malcolm Brogdon 44 88 28 125 26.0% 161 0
Domantas Sabonis 43 86 28 157 21.7% 163 6
T.J. McConnell 24 47 9 114 19.3% 82 -6
Chris Duarte 45 91 15 98 17.0% 32 4
Jeremy Lamb 24 48 9 116 15.2% 35 18
Justin Holiday 20 41 5 98 10.0% -13 -15
Oshae Brissett 8 16 0 0 0.0% -43 -6
Brad Wanamaker 2 4 0 32 48.1% -385 -4
Torrey Craig 12 23 0 37 7.6% -99 -5