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Inside the Numbers: Sun 76, Mystics 63

Washington Mystics v Chicago Sky
Emma Meesseman found her shot in the Washington Mystics loss to the Connecticut Sun.
Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images

It’s been a rough season for the Washington Mystics, and yesterday’s game against the Connecticut Sun was another bump in the road. Click here for Diamond Holton’s complete recap.

On the bright side, Mystics starters played well as a group. Emma Meesseman led the way with 14 points on 11 possessions. Myisha Hines-Allen shot poorly (just 3-12 from the floor) but contributed 13 rebounds and 6 assists.

Leilani Mitchell and Kiara Leslie were solid, and Ariel Atkins provided offensive spark with a couple threes and 6-6 shooting from the free throw line.

What lost the game for the Mystics was atrocious play from the bench — Tianna Hawkins, Sug Sutton, Jacki Gemelos and Alaina Coates. All four rated as significant negative performers in my Player Production Average (PPA) metric.

In 54 combined minutes, they shot 3-19 from the floor and 0-7 on threes. And they committed 4 turnovers.

Four Factors

In his book, Basketball on Paper, now-Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver formalized the four factors that determine who wins and loses basketball games. The factors:

  • Shooting from the floor — measured by effective field goal percentage
  • Rebounding — measured by offensive rebounding percentage
  • Maintaining possession — measured by turnover percentage
  • Free throw shooting — measured by free throws made divided by field goals attempted

Mystics vs. Sun Four Factors

efg 0.390 0.522
orb 0.24 0.26
tov 0.22 0.18
ftm 0.29 0.07
ortg 87 105

Player Production Average

Below are PPA scores from yesterday’s game. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and debits them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, fouling, poor defense). PPA is pace neutral and accounts for defense. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better.

Sorted by total contribution for the game.

Mystics PPA

Meesseman 30 237
Atkins 28 186
Hines-Allen 30 142
Mitchell 32 132
Leslie 26 129
Coates 4 -131
Gemelos 15 -158
Sutton 12 -313
Hawkins 23 -230


Bonner 36 376
Thomas 31 263
Charles 33 182
Mompremier 17 330
Carson 24 146
January 29 3
Thomas 10 -89
Hiedman 19 -63