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I know, I promised draft stuff. I’ll get to it, pinky promise. But a comment from perm on the message board got me thinking: what would the Wizards look like if we replaced everyone with the top comp produced by the Statistical Doppelgänger Machine?
You know you were wondering too.
But first, there’s one prominent player I didn’t run through the machine — John Wall. That’s because he didn’t play last season as he recovered from a torn Achilles.
So, I ran “last seen” Wall (2018-19) through the machine. His top comp: John Wall from 2017-18. Interesting. The next name: a 28-year old Deron Williams, who was beginning his age-related decline. In the comp season, Williams had a 151 PPA. He followed that with a 139 and a 104 at age 30. That 104 was the last above average season of his career.
Still, Williams was a very good player who peaked with a 171 PPA at 25 and had four seasons with a 160 or better PPA. I have Wall’s best season as a 165 PPA at age 26.
Including Wall, here’s the Wizards All-Doppelgänger Team:
Wizards All-Doppelgänger Team
| POS | Wizards | Doppelgänger |
|---|---|---|
| POS | Wizards | Doppelgänger |
| G | John Wall | Deron Williams |
| G | Bradley Beal | Damian Lillard |
| F | Isaac Bonga | Jan Vesely |
| F | Rui Hachimura | Jabari Parker |
| C | Thomas Bryant | Richaun Holmes |
| G | Ish Smith | Anthony Johnson |
| G | Garrison Mathews | Sasha Vujajic |
| F | Davis Bertans | Alan Crabbe |
| F | Troy Brown Jr. | Harrison Barnes |
| C | Moritz Wagner | Kelly Olynyk |
| G | Jerome Robinson | Boobie Gibson |
| F | Admiral Schofield | Alan Crabbe |
| C | Anzejs Pasecniks | Bill Garnett |
Alan Crabbe shows up twice — as a comp for Bertans and a comp for Schofield. Keep in mind, the “match” with Bertans was from Crabbe’s best season while the “match” with Schofield was from one of his worst.
Overall, the Doppelgänger team would likely have good guard play and a suspect front court. On any given night, they could have 2-3 contributors off the bench — Barnes, Olynyk and good Crabbe. Maybe four if we count Anthony Johnson.
This group needs a coach, and for some reason it feels like the right guy is Randy Wittman.
This All-Doppelgänger group isn’t going to win a championship, but if things fell their way and they got reasonable health, they’d likely land 7th or 8th in the East and at least get a trip to the playoffs.
I swear I’m writing about the draft next.