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Which Wizards generated the most surplus value in 2018-19?

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Boston Celtics v Washington Wizards Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

Jared Dubin wrote an interesting feature for FiveThirtyEight this week crunching the numbers on which players provided the most bang for their buck this season. He created a formula using ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus to calculate each player’s individual value this season and then compared it against each player’s actual salary to determine which players provided the most surplus value.

It may not surprise you to hear Pascal Siakam provided the most additional value this season. He played at a near All-Star level on one of the best teams in the league while playing on one of the league’s cheapest contracts.

It also may not surprise you to hear that no Wizard ranked among the top 20 in the league this season. Although a few Wizards had very good seasons, it’s hard to fare well when you’re stuck on a 50-loss team. Still, our own Kevin Broom was curious how the Wizards would fare in this assessment so he ran the numbers on the Wizards (while on vacation—without me even asking) using Dubin’s formula:

Value Generating Wizards

WIZARDS RPM WINS ADJ WINS WINS VALUE ACTUAL SALARY SURPLUS VALUE
WIZARDS RPM WINS ADJ WINS WINS VALUE ACTUAL SALARY SURPLUS VALUE
Tomas Satoransky 4.92 5.25 $15.49 $3.13 $12.36
Thomas Bryant 3.75 4 $11.81 $1.38 $10.43
Jeff Green 3 3.2 $9.45 $2.39 $7.06
Bradley Beal 8.78 9.37 $27.65 $25.43 $2.22
Bobby Portis 0.96 1.02 $3.02 $2.49 $0.53
Chasson Randle 0.24 0.26 $0.76 $0.87 -$0.11
Sam Dekker 0.36 0.38 $1.13 $2.76 -$1.63
Troy Brown 0.07 0.07 $0.22 $2.75 -$2.53
Dwight Howard 0.33 0.35 $1.04 $5.34 -$4.30
Trevor Ariza 2.18 2.33 $6.86 $15.00 -$8.14
Ian Mahinmi 0.71 0.76 $2.24 $15.94 -$13.70
Jabari Parker 1.53 1.63 $4.82 $20.00 -$15.18
John Wall 1.13 1.21 $3.56 $19.17 -$15.61

A few thing stick out:

  • Four of the five Wizards who had surplus value—Tomas Satoransky, Thomas Bryant, Jeff Green, and Bobby Portis—are free agents this summer, which means they’ll be due to get contracts more in line with their value next season. Washington’s front office will have to find some new ways to squeeze value out of their low-price players next season while John Wall recovers from surgery and Ian Mahinmi finishes up his contract.
  • Thomas Bryant provided incredible value this season, but remarkably, it wasn’t enough to offset the combined $18 million in value they lost from Ian Mahinmi and Dwight Howard this season.
  • Bobby Portis could be in for a rude awakening if he’s still looking for $16 million a year like he reportedly did during contract extension talks last fall.
  • Trevor Ariza will have a very interesting market this summer. He still has great reputation as a 3-and-D player, but it’s hard to see anyone offering something close to what Phoenix did last season. At what point then, will Ariza value playing in a winning situation over modest upgrade in pay? For instance, would he value a three-year, $21 million deal in Washington more than a two-year $11 million deal in Golden State?