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Inside the numbers from the Wizards’ loss to the Hornets

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Washington Wizards v Charlotte Hornets
Davis Bertans had a historic night, but it wasn’t enough to get the Wizards a win against the Hornets.
Photo by Kent Smith/NBAE via Getty Images

The Wizards lost to the Hornets last night despite a career-high scoring night from Davis Bertans. Check out the recap, here.

It was an entertaining game, particularly because of The Davis Bertans Show. The Latvian Laser poured in a personal-best 32 points, shooting 11-18 from the floor and converting two four-point plays. [author error corrected — thanks for the comments!]

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it was the first time a Washington player had two four-point plays since Gilbert Arenas.

Four Factors

In his book, Basketball On Paper, Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver formalized the four factors (offensive and defensive) that determines who wins basketball games. The factors:

  • Shooting from the floor — measured by effective field goal percentage
  • Rebounding — measured by offensive rebounding percentage
  • Ball handling — measured by turnover percentage
  • Getting to the free throw line — measured by free throws made divided by field goal attempts.

Wizards-Hornets Four Factors

STAT WIZARDS HORNETS
STAT WIZARDS HORNETS
efg 0.483 0.541
orb 26% 26%
tov 11% 14%
ftm 0.22 0.26
ortg 113.0 120.4
pace 95

In the NBA, the team that shoots better wins 78% of the time, which was the case in this game. The Hornets and Wizards each had 38 made field goals, but Charlotte was plus-five on made threes.

Many have placed significant responsibility for Washington’s defensive woes on Isaiah Thomas and (to a lesser extent) Thomas Bryant. However, both guys were out with injuries and the Wizards had another poor defensive game, allowing the NBA’s 22nd ranked offense to post a sky-high 120 offensive rating. Washington’s problems on defense run far deeper than Thomas.

Player Production Average and Scoreboard Impact Rating

Below are scores in my overall production metric, Player Production Average (PPA) and its counterpart, Scoreboard Impact Rating (SIR). PPA credits players for things that help the team win and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better.

SIR translates overall production into points on the scoreboard in this game.

Wizards PPA and SIR

WIZARDS min PPA SIR
WIZARDS min PPA SIR
Bertans 30 409 47
Hachimura 33 123 15
Wagner 26 121 12
Mahinmi 20 149 11
Chiozza 14 164 9
Smith 38 43 6
Brown 28 64 7
Beal 37 -12 0
Bonga 14 -99 0

Hornets PPA and SIR

HORNETS min PPA SIR
HORNETS min PPA SIR
Graham 36 244 34
Biyombo 24 289 27
Rozier 38 153 23
Zeller 22 163 14
Bridges 38 70 10
Monk 15 89 5
Washington 40 -8 0
Kidd-Gilchrist 15 -48 0
Batum 13 -113 0