PACE — 107 possessions — fast-paced game (league average is around 102)
Offensive Rating (points scored per possession x 100)
- Wizards 125
- Celtics 131
This was a high-scoring game that bordered on defenseless. The league average offensive rating is about 107 so far this season.
In his book, Basketball On Paper, now-Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver formalized the four factors (offense and defense) that determine who wins and loses basketball games. The factors:
- Shooting — measured by effective field goal percentage (which accounts for the three-point shot)
- Rebounding — measured by offensive rebounding percentage
- Ball protection — measured by turnovers
- Drawing fouls — measured by free throws made divided by field goals attempted
Celtics 140, Wizards 133 — Four Factors
The Wizards “lost” three of the four factors. By far, the most important factor is shooting — the team that shoots better from the floor wins nearly 80% of the time in the NBA. Washington shot well, but allowed Boston a preposterous .594 effective field goal percentage.
Player Production Average and Scoreboard Impact Rating
These are two stats I developed. Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall rating metric that credits players for doing things that help a team win and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion to what causes winning and losing. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better.
Scoreboard Impact Rating (SIR) translates production into points on the scoreboard in this game. In the table below, Beal’s SIR of 61 says that his production against Boston was worth 61 points to the Wizards in this game.
Wizards PPA and SIR vs. Celtics
Celtics PPA and SIR vs. Wizards
How bad was the Wizards defense?
Boston has scored 20 points in the first four-and-a-half minutes of the third quarter.— Fred Katz (@FredKatz) November 14, 2019
For those keeping score at home, during that stretch Washington allowed Boston to score at a rate of 213 points per 48 minutes. My prediction: there’s at least a 50% chance the Wizards allow an opponent to score 100 points on them...in a half.
Tonight marks the third time this season the Wizards have allowed 100 or more points through three quarters. The other two:
- October 30 vs. Houston. At the end of the third quarter, Washington led 117-111, and went on to lose 159-158.
- November 2 vs. Minnesota. The Wizards trailed 106-72 after three, and went on to lose 131-109.