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Wizards lose to the Celtics, 140-133. Here’s a look at the numbers.

By Kevin Broom

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Washington Wizards v Boston Celtics
Bradley Beal poured in 44 points on the Celtics, but it wasn’t enough as the Wizards lost 140-133.
Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images

The Wizards lost another high-scoring game, this time in Boston, 140-133. Check out Alan Jenkins game recap. Here’s a look at some of the numbers from the contest.

PACE — 107 possessions — fast-paced game (league average is around 102)

Offensive Rating (points scored per possession x 100)

This was a high-scoring game that bordered on defenseless. The league average offensive rating is about 107 so far this season.

Four Factors

In his book, Basketball On Paper, now-Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver formalized the four factors (offense and defense) that determine who wins and loses basketball games. The factors:

  • Shooting — measured by effective field goal percentage (which accounts for the three-point shot)
  • Rebounding — measured by offensive rebounding percentage
  • Ball protection — measured by turnovers
  • Drawing fouls — measured by free throws made divided by field goals attempted

Celtics 140, Wizards 133 — Four Factors

4 FACTORS WAS BOS
4 FACTORS WAS BOS
efg 0.578 0.594
orb% 20.9% 27.0%
tov% 7.5% 10.3%
ftm/fga 0.229 0.271

The Wizards “lost” three of the four factors. By far, the most important factor is shooting — the team that shoots better from the floor wins nearly 80% of the time in the NBA. Washington shot well, but allowed Boston a preposterous .594 effective field goal percentage.

Player Production Average and Scoreboard Impact Rating

These are two stats I developed. Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall rating metric that credits players for doing things that help a team win and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion to what causes winning and losing. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better.

Scoreboard Impact Rating (SIR) translates production into points on the scoreboard in this game. In the table below, Beal’s SIR of 61 says that his production against Boston was worth 61 points to the Wizards in this game.

Wizards PPA and SIR vs. Celtics

WIZARDS MIN PPA SIR
WIZARDS MIN PPA SIR
Beal 39 268 61
Hachimura 24 214 30
Brown 27 107 17
Thomas 33 65 12
Bertans 27 56 9
Bryant 29 21 4
Smith 18 -19 0
McRae 11 -31 0
Miles 13 -122 0
Wagner 18 -97 0

Celtics PPA and SIR vs. Wizards

CELTICS MIN PPA SIR
CELTICS MIN PPA SIR
Kanter 25 220 32
Walker 35 155 31
Edwards 20 234 27
Smart 36 120 25
Poirier 9 157 8
Wanamaker 17 64 6
Tatum 35 28 6
Brown 35 17 3
Ojeleye 11 26 2
Williams 11 -36 0
Green 6 -90 0

How bad was the Wizards defense?

For those keeping score at home, during that stretch Washington allowed Boston to score at a rate of 213 points per 48 minutes. My prediction: there’s at least a 50% chance the Wizards allow an opponent to score 100 points on them...in a half.

Tonight marks the third time this season the Wizards have allowed 100 or more points through three quarters. The other two:

  • October 30 vs. Houston. At the end of the third quarter, Washington led 117-111, and went on to lose 159-158.
  • November 2 vs. Minnesota. The Wizards trailed 106-72 after three, and went on to lose 131-109.