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Daily Digits: Otto Porter’s 2-point shooting as a predictor of team success

NBA: Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Daily Digits is a new daily feature we’re doing at Bullets Forever this year where we take a look at stats about the Wizards. We’ll dive into the numbers, add some context, and discuss how they affect the product on the court.

Today’s stat is Otto Porter’s field goal percentage on two-point shots this season, which is...


If you’re looking for a good tell on the Wizards’ chances of winning, don’t look at Otto Porter’s 3-point shooting. Believe it or not, he’s shooting significantly worse in wins (31.7 percent) than losses (40.7 percent) this season.

If you’re looking for something that makes a little more sense, take a look at what he does inside the arc. He’s shooting 64.7 percent on 6.8 attempts per game in the Wizards’ wins this season. He’s only shooting 49.3 percent on 5.0 attempts per game in the team’s losses.

Some of this could be early-season noise, but the other interesting thing to track with this unusual trend is that Porter is creating more of his own offense in wins than losses. He’s averaging 1.6 points per game on unassisted twos in losses, and 3.8 per game in the team’s wins.

For all the talk about giving Otto Porter the green light to shoot threes this season, it hasn’t really made much of a difference this season. He’s actually taking fewer threes per game than he did last season. Perhaps the key instead lies in giving him more freedom to pursue more two-point opportunities when he gets them.