FanPost

January 2018 is the Wizards' month of opportunity

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Wizards enter 2018 in 5th place in the NBA's Eastern Conference, which is not as high in the standings as I would have predicted. I thought that their starting lineup included enough veterans who know how important it is to have homecourt advantage in the playoffs.

Of course, I did not expect John Wall to miss 11 games early in the season. Nor did I expect Scott Brooks to struggle in coaching the team, and not have them ready to play on each game day, regardless the opponent they were facing. But, the situation could be worse. Other than Boston, none of the stronger teams in the East has marched out to a commanding lead in the W column. Milwaukee has not played as well as I had expected. So here we are in 5th place, and only 4.5 games out of second place.

And when I look at the schedules over the month of January, I see opportunity. It looks to me like the Wizards and their Eastern Conference competitors have schedules which should allow the Wizards to climb in the standings between now and the end of the month.

Clearly, the Wizards have not been easy to predict, as many of their losses have come in games they were clear favorites to win. But I will assume that Brooks, Wall, and company will be less enigmatic and win most of the games against lesser opponents this month. Then, by assuming that the 4 teams currently ahead of the Wizards in the standings meet expectations, I see the Wizards in 4th place at the end of this month, and on the heels of the Cavaliers and Raptors.

First the Celtics, who not only have a 3-game lead in the East, but who also have already played at least 3 games more than every other team in the conference. They are scheduled to play 12 games this month, 6 which are at home and only 3 against teams which current have a winning record. Plus there is only 1 back-to-back pair of games on their January slate. My guess is that they will go 10 – 2 during January.

The Raptors have the busiest schedule, and while their 15 January games include only 6 away games, they have 9 games against opponents with a winning record and 2 pairs of back-to-back games. They have been playing great basketball, and I do not sense that Ibaka’s dustup will throw them off kilter. But it is a tough schedule, so I expect they will go 9 and 6 during January.

The Cavaliers might have the toughest January schedule, with 12 of their 14 games against teams with a winning record and 3 sets of back-to-back games. But they also have LeBron James and now also Isaiah Thomas, so I expect they will win 10 of their 14 January games. But I place a lower level of confidence on this forecast, because no team introduces a high-profile player like Isaiah Thomas without having to make a lot of adjustments to their offensive game plan and rotations. So maybe the Cavs win less than 10 games in January.

The Pistons also play 14 games, including 7 against teams with a winning record, 2 pairs of back-to-back games, plus games on the road against the Sixers, Pelicans and Bulls – 3 teams I think will give Detroit very tough matchups. And they will be without Reggie Jackson and have a hobbled Avery Bradley. So I expect January to be a tough month for Detroit, during which they will only win 6 games.

That brings us to the Wizards schedule. 13 January games, with 7 games at home and only 5 games against opponents with a winning record. One of their two back-to-backs is at home, when they face Orlando followed by Brooklyn. And the Wizards will act like a professional organization that is committed to winning every night.

Not knowing what New Year’s resolutions the players and coaches made, I can only guess that they are resolved to avoid the types of embarrassments that have provided fodder for John Wall’s detractors. If I am right about that, the Wizards will have a very good January with 11 wins. That would give them a 32 and 18 record, and put them in 4th place, only 2 games behind Cleveland and 1.5 games behind Toronto, who they will play at home on February 1.

Projected standings for the NBA East top 5 teams on January 31, 2018

  1. Boston 40-12
  2. Cleveland 34-16
  3. Toronto 33-16
  4. Washington 32-18
  5. Detroit 26-23

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.