I don't actually like to focus that much on KD, certainly not to the level that some people do. Speculating on his decision when we really have no idea what factors are important to him doesn't really interest me.
But recently I have read some things about the actual KD plan, or more appropriately, the Wizards plans for 2016 and beyond, that I thought were worth discussing. The Washington Post was critical of the 2016 cap space strategy, suggesting the team was sacrificing the present for an uncertain future. National writers have mentioned that losing Pierce took some edge from this team, and the Wizards would have been wise to offer him a longer deal. Commenters here have talked about how KD certainly isn't coming (at least not in 2016) and this team needs real fixes this year.
KD may not come in 2016, but the only way Ernie can really screw up, in my opinion, is if he doesn't give KD the opportunity to come home. Specifically, if he doesn't leave the team with enough cap room or roster flexibility to sign him. I agree with the Post that we have a talented core, but even a 25% chance of KD is worth maintaining this holding pattern. There is no more likely path to contention. Leaving $ for KD does not have to exclude us from making the playoffs this year, but even if it did this roster was never a real championship contender anyway. With KD we would be instantly.
In my opinion it's a no brainer, stay the course and make KD an offer in July. Worst case scenario we're left with a promising core and cap space. But what do others think? Are the odds of KD2DC so low that the pursuit is not worthwhile? Is our core so talented that they deserve to be built around, starting right now?