As you probably know, the Washington Wizards will have the fourth-best odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery for a second straight year. That would be very unprecedented -- only Orlando in 1992 and 1993 did it, and that was before the weighted lottery system that currently exists today -- but ironically, the Wizards have a better chance to win the lottery this time around than they did last year. Last year, they had the fifth-best odds and still won the lottery.
Can they do it again? Who knows, and there's no way to predict it. But I was kind of curious how teams in the Wizards' spot in the past did. Below the jump, a list of where the teams with the fourth-worst record have drafted since they changed the lottery odds in 1994.
1994: Minnesota Timberwolves (20-62)
- Pick: 4
- Player selected: Donyell Marshall
- Notes: Three teams -- Milwaukee, Detroit and Minnesota -- were tied for the second-worst record. The Bucks won the tiebreaker for the second-most odds, then won the lottery to select Glenn Robinson. Detroit got the third-most odds (I believe, can't 100% confirm that) and picked third, getting Grant Hill
1995: Philadelphia 76ers (24-58)
- Pick: 3
- Player selected: Jerry Stackhouse
- Notes: Golden State leaped from the fifth-worst record to win the lottery and select Joe Smith. The Clippers, who had the worst record, picked second and drafted Antonio McDyess. Worth noting: the league excluded expansion Vancouver and Toronto from the lottery, placing them sixth and seventh.
1996: Milwaukee Bucks (25-57)
- Pick: 4
- Player selected: Stephon Marbury (traded for Ray Allen)
- Notes: One of the few years, along with 1994, where the three worst teams picked in the top 3. Philadelphia won the lottery with the second-worst record.
1997: Denver Nuggets (21-61)
- Pick: 5
- Player selected: Tony Battie
- Notes: This is the year where the Celtics famously had the most odds (their own record) and the sixth-most odds (from owning Dallas' pick). San Antonio won with the third-worst record and got Tim Duncan. Philadelphia got the second pick with the fifth-worst record. Vancouver had the worst record, but were not eligible for the top pick because they were an expansion team.
1998: Golden State Warriors (19-63)
- Pick: 5
- Player selected: Vince Carter (traded for Antawn Jamison)
- Notes: Golden State tied with Vancouver for the fourth-worst record, but Vancouver couldn't win the lottery like the year before, so Golden State essentially had the fourth-most odds. The Clippers won the Michael Olowokandi derby with the third-worst record, while Vancouver jumped to second.
1999: Denver Nuggets (14-36)
- Pick: 5
- Player selected: Jonathan Bender
- Notes: Denver had traded this pick to Toronto in the summer of 1998 in a three-team deal that brought them Chauncey Billups (fresh off his rookie year). Toronto then dealt Bender to Indiana for Antonio Davis. Chicago won the lottery with the third-worst record. Vancouver, who had the worst record, picked second, while Charlotte jumped to third despite having the lowest odds to leap up.
2000: Vancouver Grizzlies (22-60)
- Pick: 2
- Player selected: Stromile Swift
- Notes: New Jersey won the lottery despite having the seventh-worst record. The Clippers, who had the worst record, picked third.
2001: Vancouver Grizzlies (23-59)
- Pick: 6
- Player selected: Shane Battier
- Notes: The Wizards won this lottery, unfortunately, with the third-worst record. The Clippers jumped up from the eighth-worst record to pick second, while Atlanta picked third with the fifth-worst record. Atlanta ended up trading their pick (Pau Gasol) to the Grizzlies for Shareef Abdur-Rahim.
2002: Denver Nuggets (27-55)
- Pick: 5
- Player selected: Nikoloz Tskitishvilli
- Notes: Houston won with the fifth-worst record. Chicago and Golden State, who tied for the worst record, picked second and third respectively.
2003: Miami Heat (25-57)
- Pick: 5
- Player selected: Dwyane Wade
- Notes: Cleveland won while being tied for the worst record. Memphis jumped from the sixth-worst record to the No. 2 spot, which sucked because the pick belonged to Detroit from a 1998 trade for Otis Thorpe unless it was No. 1 overall.
2004: Los Angeles Clippers (28-54)
- Pick: 2
- Player selected: Emeka Okafor
- Notes: The Clippers were tied with Atlanta for the fourth-worst record, and Atlanta picked sixth. The Clippers traded this pick to Charlotte for the No. 4 pick and the No. 33 pick. The Clippers then picked Shaun Livingston. Orlando won the lottery with the worst record.
2005: Utah Jazz (26-56)
- Pick: 6
- Player selected: Martell Webster
- Notes: The Jazz traded the sixth pick, the No. 27 pick and a 2006 lottery-protected first-rounder to the Blazers for the No. 3 pick, then selected Deron Williams. The Bucks won the lottery with the fifth-worst record. Atlanta, who had the worst record, finished second.
2006: Atlanta Hawks (26-56)
- Pick: 5
- Player selected: Shelden Williams
- Notes: The Hawks tied the Bobcats for the third-worst record, but Charlotte won the tiebreaker to get more ping-pong balls. The Bobcats ended up picking third. Toronto won the lottery with the fifth-worst record
2007: Atlanta Hawks (30-52)
- Pick: 3
- Player selected: Al Horford
- Notes: The top three teams all got leapfrogged in this lottery. Portland won with the sixth-worst record, while Seattle picked second despite the fifth-worst record.
2008: Memphis Grizzlies (22-60)
- Pick: 5
- Player selected: Kevin Love
- Notes: Memphis tied Minnesota for the third-worst record, but the Timberwolves won the coin flip to get the third-most odds. Minnesota got the third pick, then traded O.J. Mayo for Love. Chicago won the No. 1 pick and Derrick Rose with the ninth-worst record. Miami, who had the worst record, picked second.
2009: Oklahoma City Thunder (23-59)
- Pick: 3
- Player selected: James Harden
- Notes: The Clippers won while tied for the second-worst record after losing a coin flip with the Wizards, of course. Memphis jumped up to second while tying for the fifth-worst record. Sacramento, who had the worst record, picked fourth.
2010: Golden State Warriors (26-56)
- Pick: 6
- Player selected: Ekpe Udoh
- Notes: The Warriors were tied for the fourth-worst record with the Wizards and won the coin flip. That obviously worked out well for our team.
To review, the team with the fourth-worst record has never won the NBA Draft Lottery. It has picked...
- Second twice
- Third three times
- Fourth twice
- Fifth seven times
- Sixth three times
In other words, based on history, expect the No. 5 pick.