Sorry, this is a self-serving post related to a side-venture I am working on with some friends. But, I figure BulletsForever-posters will give me better market research than anywhere else. So, here it goes.
Lets say John Wall did some research, and studied the career's of former point guards picked high in the draft. He sees Baron Davis, drafted #3 in 1999, earn $145 Million over his career. He also sees Antonio Daniels, drafted #4 in 1997, earn $49 Million over his career. He then sees Jay Williams, drafted #2 in 2002, make $8.7 Million (or the guaranteed portion of his rookie contract), in his one year in the league.
John Wall decides he would like some insurance. Even though he is confident he will have an even better career than Baron Davis, he wants to insure himself, just in case he turns out to suck (like Antonio Daniels), or has a freak accident (like Jay Williams). So John Wall and his advisers work out a plan where they will sell "shares" of John Wall.
In exchange for a one-time payment today, an investor would get 1% of all of John Wall's future salary. For example, if you paid Wall $20,000, and he winds up making as much as Baron Davis ($145Million), then you would get $1.45 Million (or 1% of $145M), and make a profit of $1.25 Million on your $20K John Wall investment. On the other hand, if John Wall crashes his motorcycle like Jay Williams and only makes his guaranteed rookie salary and nothing more, then you would only receive about $9,000, and lose $11,000 on the deal.
So, just out of curiousity, say John Wall came to you and tried to sell you 1% of all his future basketball salary, how much would you pay for it? What is 1% of John Wall worth to you right now?
(FYI: I am working on doing this exact thing with a couple buddies of mine. If you are interested, let me know. I would love to hear your opinions on this. We are trying to build a contracts exchange program that would act a lot like a commodity futures exchange.)