It's finally here-- took long enough too. Don't get me wrong, football is my passion but those Vegas guys know pretty much everything there is to know about what goes down on the gridiron. But on the hardwood?-- Not so much. Especially the first half of the season. The thing about football is you have 38 players, the elements (most of the time) and a week of practice in between each of the 16, all-out maximum effort gladiator matches-- Cliches become that for a reason, anything CAN happen on Any Given Sunday. You can catch a hot streak, but most of the time you just tread water from week to week (at least most folks I know).
The thing about basketball is that over an 82 game season of players going half-ass, giving minimal effort- teams become abnormally consistent. When a team wins 4 in a row-- you can normally ride them for the next stretch of games without much interruption. Teams generally score above their average when playing a below average defensive or above average offense opponent. The reverse holds as well.
When it comes to fictional betting (I use a monopoly system to test my theories because gambling isn't legal unless at a sportsbook in Vegas) there's no greater rush then hitting a parlay. For the novices, parlays are when you place one bet on a series of games: If you bet 5 on game A and were correct, your winnings are placed on game B and so on and so on until either you get one wrong or get them all right and win the bet.
Now I'm by no means calling myself an expert. I just started on these theories last year and that could have been an anomoly. That's why I'm keeping this diary. I was sitting, trying to figure why I wasn't having the success of last season since the NFL started when it hit me. There was no bball mixed in!
I can pick at least two locks in the NFL each week... a cover and an over/under. Add that to two saturday basketball locks and two sunday basketball locks (think Wizards/Warriors/Suns and the Over last year- thanks Donaghy! We'll miss you!!!) and you have a 6 team parlay that could really payoff. Add two more games you feel confident about and you can limit your risk (and reward) by making a round robin bet. Here's how I play my round robins, and no this probably isn't the most efficient way to go about it, but its how I do my thing. I pick 8 games, and set it on 6 ways (you can play 2,3,4,5 or 6 ways). In 6way, your 8 picks are divided into 28, 6pick parlay possibilities and your stake is placed on all of those combos. The payoff has three levels: 6 out of 8 picks right, get about 155% back. 7 out of 8 picks right you get about a 1000% return and all 8 correct... a whopping 4350% return! Now if you had placed that same bet amount on a straight 8 pick parlay your return would be an astronomical 17,178%, but you get nothing if you miss just one pick! In a round robin, you can get two wrong and still come out ahead.
Basically I want to keep track of my theories now that basketball has started, and it's off to a good opening night start! I'll post the bets I would place if it was legal and see what the overall returns are for a while. Of course, if my attempt to share knowledge jinxes anything, this diary will end quick and in a hurry lol. Hope you enjoy reading it. Peace- KDP