I'll preface this by saying that what I'm proposing is going to sound crazy. Also, it's Friday and I do not have the desire to do the math, so I apologize for that.

The Wizards are ever so quietly angling themselves to make a major push for Toronto Raptors forward Chris Bosh.

Major names in the league are going to be hitting the market in the summer of 2011. The Nets aren't hiding the fact that would love to build their team around LeBron. The love the idea so much, in fact, that they are willing to build their team around him now despite the fact that he does not play for the Nets.

Could it be possible that teams are posturing for the other big names as well...years before they hit the market? Take...say...the Washington Wizards for example. Here are some numbers that come off the books that year.

1. Etan Thomas - $6,373,900
2. Deshawn Stevenson - $3,348,215
3. Antonio Daniels - $5,800,000
4. Brendan Haywood - $5,000,000
5. Dominic McGuire - $427,16

That is going to free up around $20 million.

Here is why this scenario is possible...

• Nobody really wants to play in Canada. What a terrible market for a superstar to be in. Bosh has already proven that he is willing to go to great lengths to get some bigger lights shining on him. If anyone thinks he is staying in Toronto longer than he has to is kidding themselves. He signed his courtesy contract just like LeBron and D-Wade. The Heat just drafted a franchise player and are most definitely on the upswing. Bosh is similar to LeBron in that...
• His team is probably not going to get much better. I don't see Jermaine O'Neal catapulting this team into contention. My guess is that he, and the next couple Raptors seasons, will be more of the same.  They will become the Wizards of the North...putting together a string of first round exits. Bosh sacrificed his long term security to see how this team developed over a three year period. When that three year period comes to an end, they should have about the same quality of team, with no real sign of legitimately contending in the Celtic dominated East. Why on Earth would he stay in Toronto?
  
• Let's just assume that Arenas and Jamison both resign.  Sit Arenas down this summer and call his bluff. See exactly how much he is willing to take off of his max contract to keep AJ. Sign Gil and then overpay AJ (just a bit) to ensure that he stays. A 3 year contract would be ideal. That means we can run with essentially the same team for the next three years. This team healthy, to me, has a great deal of potential. If we have our hearts set on Bosh, what would it hurt to give this team a legitimate (healthy) shot at it for the next couple of years.
• Don't rule out a trade. In two years, I envision Jamison's numbers being almost identical to this season. He will be a high character, veteran, double-double machine with an expiring contract. Of course, 7'0 athletic, young, big men are hard to find so the best case scenario for Toronto is to get one in return. Fortunately, the Wizards will have two - Jevale McGee and Andray Blatche. Jamison (and his expiring contract), McGee/Blatche, and draft picks. Heck, I'd give you Blatche and McGee in that deal for Chris Bosh. Find a team that can offer more.
• Fear the Celtics. I am sold on this team being at the top of the East for the next few years barring another ridiculous trade. The three headed monster is the next big trend in professional basketball. I envision teams attempting to mirror the Celtics for the next few seasons. Now put yourself in Chris Bosh's size 13 shoes for a minute, you have a big decision to make. Do you believe that Calderon and O'Neal/Bargnani (in CANADA) gives you a better chance at a title than Arenas/Butler (in the NATIONS CAPITAL)? I apologize for offending any Canadians...all I know about Canada is what South Park tells me.
  
• "Anything is possible!!!" - especially with the Wizards. Why? Because our GM keeps his mouth shut. The Wizards beat reporter has to be the most frustrating job on the planet. Props to Ivan Carter for doing what he does. Anyone who tries to predict what EG will do is crazy. If he is trying to get in position to be a major player for Bosh, we won't know until it happens.
• Which statement do you believe more?
  

A) The Wizards can win a championship with this current team.

B) The Wizards will never get over the hump without a legitimate low-post scorer and defender.

Beyond the injuries...this is THE dilemma for the Wizards. To tell the truth, I am right at 50/50 on this one. In my mind, there is no other place to be at this moment. "I mean, before the injuries hit, we were in first place." How many times have you heard this one? The problem is that it's true. Yes we were in first place, and yes that was Eddie Jordan coaching the all-star game. So, at the very least, it's conceivable that we could mask this deficiency by scoring 120 points a game and end up at the top of the East at season's end.

The only problem is you don't win the championship by being in first place after the regular season. The other problem is that not many teams win a championship with out a dominant low-post player. Not a "power forward" who gives you 20-10 every night, but a dominant low-post player on both ends. I pose another question...

Replace Kevin Garnett with Antawn Jamison. Does Boston still win the title?

I doubt it... but I'd be surprised if they didn't have the best record in the East.

Last nights draft was disappointing just because there were so many other players on the board that I would have liked to have. I am furious that Mario Chalmers fell to the second round and will be suiting up for Miami...who just drafted Michael Beasley.  Picking McGee only feeds my frustration with this team because I am right at 50/50 on whether he will be any good. With so much uncertainty on this team, it would have been nice to get a decent player whose production on this team would have been predictable.

I suggest to you that your frustration with this pick may be a factor of the current situation of the team, not so much with the actual player taken. For me, I will appease my frustration with visions of grandeur such as the one above.

 

 

I'll admit that I was caught up in the glamor of the Lakers that I failed to realize how good the Celtics really were. Although last night's game was a blowout, Lakers vs. Celtics was a nice change of pace from the Spurs vs. Cavs dud last year. I wasn't old enough to understand basketball when this rivalry was at it's peak, so revisiting the history of these teams was pretty fun to watch too.

The Celtics were easily the best team in basketball. I was convinced of that when I went to watch them beat the Spurs earlier this year in San Antonio, without Ray Allen. Their championship is well deserved.

Bill Russell thinks his boy KG and the Celts are going to win 4 or 5 titles. My initial response was "No way! Bill Russell is old and senile." Bill Russell may be on to something though. There were no growing pains with the Celtics. They even handled a bold prediction from an over-zealous Wizard in their first home game. Gil, like me, probably did not expect them to come together as quickly as they did.

The Celtics are only going to get better. KG is there for the next five years, Pierce four, Allen three. Perkins, a great low post defender is there for the next four. Rondo, Powe, and Big Baby have two years left on their rookie contracts. Posey's contract is up, but I doubt that he or the Celtics will let him play anywhere else for a while.

For me, this is clearly the team to beat in the East over the next 4-6 years. The #1 contender in most people's eyes seems destined for a break-up. I'm not sold on LeBron and the Cavs being a consistent contender either. With so many teams shaking things up, it seems logical to keep our team as is. All Ernie needs to do, as mentioned, is stockpile young talent and IF you want to make a trade, make a trade that matters like the Celtics did. I'll take the team that has 3 superstars and the longest tenured coaching staff in the East over a team in flux any day.

Ernie should learn a few lessons from the Celtics, such as...

1. A good defense needs an anchor. One thing that both the Lakers and Celtics have is a defensive anchor, not just a role player who excels at defense. Watching KG in the middle of that zone last night was a thing of beauty.

IMO Rondo has just as much impact leading the defense from the PG position. His defense was especially delicious last night. When healthy, the first guy to defend the ball for the Wizards is usually Gilbert Arenas. His defense is passive at best, guys get into the lane too easily which then screws everyone else up. If Gil can't hold his own up top, our perimeter defenders cheat into the lane. You've seen what happens then, wide open threes whenever you want em.

Solution: Find a player that can defend the PG position with no assistance. A couple of names that everyone likes here are Mario Chalmers and Kyle Weaver. Weaver looks great, however, I'd worry about him playing point guard in the NBA. I honestly didn't watch him play much at all so I'll let others chime in on his abilities there. I saw Chalmers a lot and he appears to be ready to step in right away so I'll run with him.

Draft Chalmers with the expectation that he will start at point guard in certain situations. I know changing point guards depending on the match-up can cause chemistry problems, but if there is a team that is used to a plethora of starting line-ups, its the Washington Wizards. I don't see that being a huge issue.

I would much rather see Gilbert guarding Ray Allen off the ball than guarding Rondo with the ball. Chalmers should be able to stick with Rondo well enough that our perimeter defenders can stick with their shooters. I would also start Chalmers/Arenas against Delonte West/Daniel Gibson, Chauncey Billups/Rip Hamilton, Kurt Hinrich/Ben Gordon, and potentially Derrick Rose/D-Wade (can you smell a rivalry?)

Obviously this wont work all the time. For instance, you wouldn't want Arenas guarding Joe Johnson when we play the Atlanta Hawks. Here, I'd move Chalmers to backup PG, throw in Stevenson or NY to match up with Johnson, and wish Bibby the best in trying to keep Arenas from dropping 40.

There may also be times where neither of those pairs looks like a good matchup. One example I can think of is the Spurs. I go to the Spurs vs. Wizards game every year in San Antonio and it never ends well. I wouldn't want Arenas to be matched up with Parker or Ginobili. In this case I would start Chalmers/Stevenson and bring Arenas in off of the bench. The pessimist in me doesn't believe that Gil's knee won't give him fits next year. I don't see any way he can play 40 minutes a night. Night's like these would give his knee some much needed rest, and provide us with some major fire power off the bench. If the worst case scenario happens, and we lose him again for an extended period of time, we will have a young guard who has already been fed minutes and should be able to step in...permanently if need be.

2. Length matters. Going back to the Celtic's zone last night...I had a good conversation with a friend of mine about how incredibly long the five man unit on the floor for the Celtics was. Rondo, Posey, Pierce, Garnett, and Perkins. With their arms extended, there were zero passing lanes for the Lakers to work with. Of course the length is only one part of it...cohesiveness, athleticism, and intensity is what made the Celtics defense great.

Going with the theme of stock piling young talent, this idea made me re-think potential draft picks. I'd still feel the same about Brandon Rush, CDR, and Dorsey. Each provide a great deal of length as well as pure defensive talent. Rush goes up a few notches in my mind because he plays great team defense as well, which is what we are looking for. There may be some undrafted players that would fit the bill as well. I'd like to see Ernie look at Patrick Ewing Jr. and DeMarcus Nelson. I still can't support us picking Hibbert despite the fact that he has done well in workouts. Although we had success with a slower pace this year, the Wizards are not a half court team. He would never keep up.

3. It feels better with your own guys. I know, winning a championship with any guys is an amazing feeling. Last night, I was the most excited for Paul Pierce. I didn't care at all who won the series, but I found myself rooting for the Lakers because a majority of their squad were players that they developed like Vujacic, Walton, Farmar, etc. The Celtics ripped off other teams for two HOF players and filled their role positions with a bunch of guys who were looking to mooch off of the big 3 for a title. Do you honestly think Posey, Cassell, and PJ Brown would be in Boston for any other reason? PJ Brown was retired!

Believe me, I want a title in Washington by any means necessary. I'm just saying it will be much more satisfying if we do it with the guys that we developed. I don't want to take anything away from their win, it was awesome. I just would have been more satisfied had Al Jefferson tried to take home Michelle Tafoya as opposed to KG.

This brings me to my next lesson learned...

4. All it will take is one good season. I whole heartedly agree that stock-piling young talent is the way to go if you want to win a title. I think that gets you about 75% of the way there. The other 25% comes from having one good run to the playoffs, and then getting solid veterans with 3-4 years left in their careers sign on to try and mooch a championship. I would love to see an exact figure of how many of the champs over the last 10 years have had at least one very effective veteran sign for less then they were worth with hopes of getting a ring. The Rockets did it, the Spurs did it, the Lakers almost did it with Malone and Payton, and now the Celtics did it.

The Wizards play the style of ball that players love. There are no problems in our locker room. Good venue, great city. Where's the mooch love for the Wizards? I guess being a "Wizard" isn't as cool as being a "Celtic" or a "Laker". Maybe if we were still the Bullets...sigh.

5. Decide who the best player on your TEAM is. Kevin Garnett is the most unique talent on the Celtics. He was head and shoulders the best player on the Timberwolves. Just because he is the rarest talent doesn't make him the best player on the Celtics. The best player on the Celtics won the finals MVP award. Luckily for the Celtics, your team can take on the personality of either one of these players and be just fine. Such is not the case for Washington.

Gilbert Arenas is the most unique talent on the Wizards. There are only a handful of players that you have to be legitimately worried about scoring 50 points on you on any given night...he's one of them. That doesn't make him the best player on this TEAM...if it did, he would have been named a captain by now. Teams take on the personality of their team's best player. I hope that our team is as convinced as I am that Caron Butler is the best player on our team. Our Wizards would do themselves well to take on his personality instead of Gilbert's. I'd like to see Arenas play with Butler's intensity on both ends of the floor and see where that gets us.

6. Choose a slogan that your team can rally around. I kept hearing "Our time" from Doc Rivers at halftime. Think Eddie Jordan gave any motivational speeches revolving around "Ready to Rule"?

Never Let Up...that should be our mantra.

I know that all the talk regarding our pick seems to revolve around trades, but there hasn't been a lot of talk about the players anyone actually wants to draft. This is a deep draft and there will still be a lot of talent to choose from at 18.

Here are the top five guys that I'd like to see end up in Washington. I'll leave Dorsey out to hopefully spark some discussion about other players.

How would you rank your five? For my five, I'll keep it to players that are likely to be around or who have a chance of falling. I'm not focusing so much on need here, just guys that I like, who would fit in well with our team.

 

1. Ty Lawson PG, North Carolina - We wouldn't need him to score a lot off of the bench. He may be a great third PG should Arenas' knee continue to bother him, or if Antonio Daniels goes down.  I'd say that's always a possibility considering the way he gets after it during games. He would look very nice next to NY on the second team. Lawson may be a bit undersized but he will always be one of, if not the, fastest guys on the court. Combine that with great floor leadership and that's a hell of a point guard. His outside shot needs work, but I don't think it's too far fetched for this guy to develop a nice mid-range game. Great finisher.

2. Marreese Speights PF, Florida - This guy must have had one of the more strange seasons of any player with all of the Billy Donovan drama. First, his coach goes to the NBA, then he's back. He kicks the whole team out of practice and wont let them wear Florida apparel. Odd. Regardless of the drama, this guy had a lot of pressure on him as the best player on a young, championship defending Florida squad. He's only 19 and he did pretty well for himself. It wasn't enough to get a third straight championship, but enough to draw numerous comparisons to Elton Brand.

3. Chris Douglas Roberts SG, Memphis - I see a lot of Josh Howard in CDR. In comparison, Howard has better size and a more consistent jumper from deep. CDR is superior in his ball handling and ability to get shots for himself and his teammates. Bottom line, this guy loves the big game and always wants the ball when the game is on the line, which is what I love about him. He plays tough, aggressive defense and he doesnt gamble a lot. I wouldnt imagine there being much of an adjustment coming from Calipari's offense. Douglas-Roberts could contribute right away.

4. Nicolas Batum SF, France - Now that Pech is here, and JCN is watching his buddy chase a title from Memphis (single tear) - it may be time to restock overseas. Batum is a baller from France who needs a couple more years under his belt before he's ready for the LeBrons and Paul Pierce's of the NBA. His motor is his biggest concern. Coaches are frustrated at his "pretty-good" output because he is often the best player on the floor. He could develop into a great defender. Chad Ford compares him to Mickael Pietrus but the ceiling should be much higher.

If there's not a trade to Ernie's liking or a player that he sees chipping something in of value this next season, I expect him to re-up our talent overseas.

5. Chase Budinger SF, Arizona - Budinger is a phenomenal athlete who possesses range beyond the NBA three. He's a great finisher, and one of the best dunkers in basketball. Sorry to be repetitive, but it be too fun to watch Antonio run a 3 on 1 fast break with NY and Budinger infront of him. We'd have one of the more athletic second units in the league. I'd put him higher but he doesnt play great defense.

5b. Mario Chalmers PG, Kansas - I debated putting him in instead of Budinger, but I am hoping that enough teams worry about his ability to run the point so he slips to the second round. You can't discount the tournament this guy had. He's a gamer just like some of the other guys I named. I love his game, especially his defense. If he couldn't run the point, I wouldn't mind putting him in at the two. He could easily jump right in as a Roger Mason type player for us, but with much better defense. Best case scenario...Lindsey Hunter with a better shot?

I wouldn't mind if Ernie worked a deal to move back into the early second round for a guy like Chalmers. If we did that and used our other second rounder on a guy like Dorsey (sorry), it would instantly improve our defense and make up for the shortcomings of our other players.

Other guys I like a lot and would be thrilled to see drop to us, but don't think they will - DJ Augustine, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Joe Alexander.

Laugh and point...

 

 

 

I know there are strong opinions on Roy Hibbert and anyone else the Wizards are potentially going to land. I saw Joey Dorsey's name come up quite a bit in a recent discussion about Hibbert.

Nobody has really mentioned that Joey Dorsey absolutely destroyed Hibbert when they played this year. I dont care who you are...if you are 7'2, there is no excuse to being dominated by a player who is 5-6 inches shorter than you.

Dorsey and Hibbert played essentially the same amount of minutes. They were mostly on the court at the same time. Here's how they fared against eachother.

                                     FG       FT    OFF  REB  PF    PTS   BLK
R. Hibbert, C    27     3-8       0-0     2       6        4       6       2
J. Dorsey, F      28     5-10    1-4      8      13      4       11     3

If you want to watch a big man with a sloppy afro get abused, then this is the game for you. Keep in mind that Joey Dorsey is probably the closest thing to a pro defender that Hibbert faced all year. I'll be fair and say that Dorsey is exceptional on defense and forced many players into nights like this, however, like I said before, Hibbert is 7'2 so he has no excuses.

The first thing that I noticed in the game was that Hibbert really cannot rebound. I wish there was a way that you could separate rebounds that simply fall to you and ones that you fight for. My opinion is that the best indicator of this would have to be offensive rebounds vs. defensive rebounds. Generally, I feel like offensive boards are much harder to come by, unless you are Moses Malone or Ricky Davis who intentionally miss close shots in order to get their own rebound. Getting offensive rebounds is indicative of hustle, desire, and instincts to know where the ball is going. The fact that Hibbert got beaten so bad in this area shows important differences between these two players.

In this game, Hibbert pulled down two offensive boards, both of which were his own missed lay-ups. Dorsey also pulled down two offensive rebounds from his own missed layups, but also grabbed 6 more on top of that. A lot of those boards came off of long range jump shots.

For all of you that play basketball, we know what happens when you are guarding someone who is taller than you. You usually end up hacking the living hell out of them. That bodes especially true for big men. How is it then, that Roy Hibbert - facing one of the most aggressive defenders in basketball...and a player with an astronomically high foul rate - lays an egg in terms of free throw attempts? Maybe it's just a fluke. Actually in the last 145 minutes that Hibbert played this season, including the tourney, Hibbert shot a grand total of 6 free throws.

That's the last 6 games of the year, the most important games of the year. A 7'2 starting center in a slow paced, half court offense should never average 1 free throw a game.

It helps if you watched the game, but I'd say this is going to be a pretty accurate picture of what you are going to get from each player in the pros. I predict  that each player in his prime will put up similar numbers at the next level.

I understand that this is one game. I also understand that he played very well against Greg Oden last year. This is just another reason to stay away from the guy. How can you be so effective against last years number one overall pick, yet get outplayed badly by Hamady N'Diaye of Rutgers? Hibbert is all over the map in terms of consistency which spells disaster for ANY college player's pro career, even more so for centers.

On the other hand, you know what you are going to get from Joey Dorsey...much like you know what you are going to get in Paul Millsap and Reggie Evans. Are we looking for either guy to start and give us 20 and 10? No way. What we do need is an athletic big man who can come off of the bench and grab boards and shut down the scrubs that typically come in and throw down career games (Zaza Pachulia anyone?). I mean seriously...is there an easier lane to get into and score than the one at the Verizon Center?

There is nothing to develop in terms of Dorsey's rebounding and defensive game, it's all fine tuning from here. Let's not pretend he is going to develop a 15 foot jumper...he's going to be all dunks/boards/and blocks which is fine with me.

Hibbert on the other hand is a complete project, you would have to put in major work on every aspect of his game. Do we really have time for that? I'd rather spend time developing NY, Blatche, Pech, and Taser than investing our coaches time in trying to find out if we have the next Brendon Haywood on our hands.

Poll

Who would you rather have on your team?

• Roy Hibbert
• Joey Dorsey

  27 votes | Results

Is there any way the Redskins are not keeping an eye on this situation? Allen has been given a green light to seek a trade, meaning he can take physicals with other teams and even talk contracts.

Why wouldn't the Redskins go after this guy? A few points to consider...

1. This isn't Bruce Smith stepping in at the end of his career. Allen is in his prime...and is still getting better. His sack numbers were up last year to 15.5, which is especially impressive considering he sat out the first two games.
2. Although much improved, our defense still ranked towards the bottom of the league in takeaways last season. We need another guy who can get to the QB quickly and force fumbles or bad throws.
3. Our answer at DE may not be available to us in this draft. The 21st pick is about as unsexy as Della Reece. Calais Campbell, Quentin Groves, and Philip Merling? I'm not excited about any of these guys (unless they fall to the 2nd round). They all have issues, Campbell (motor,speed), Groves (size), and Merling (sports hernia). The Chiefs are putting a TON of stock in this draft, and sending them a first and third round pick will probably be enough to get Allen.

I would pull the trigger on this in a heartbeat. Our biggest need is filled with a proven, All-Pro player in his prime instead of a kid with questions. Also, are the potential guys available at 21 any better than the players that should be around thirty picks later at 51?

Is Phillip Merling that much better than Lawrence Jackson? Is Limas Sweed going to put up superior numbers to James Hardy? Kentwan Balmer or Trevor Laws? There really isnt much disparity between any of these players.

I say go for it if it only costs us our first and third rounders. The way I look at it, it really only costs us a third rounder that we didnt even have a few weeks ago. This being said, these picks will probably end up in Cincinnati for Chad Johnson.

I'm bored.

[editor's note, by Skin Patrol] Everyone loves a good mock. Promoted and thanks to Romans12 for taking the time to go through the first round. Make sure you guys give me or TexSkins all the input necessary to make the right pick at #21 in the SB Nation Mock Draft. Enjoy, unedited. Enjoyed the previous mock that got posted. Don't want to steal anyone's thunder, but I'm a big draft guy and I put one of these together every year. Mine will be a bit more conservative. I hope other members will throw some more mocks up. No matter how it turns out...I'm just pumped to find out who the NINE new Washington Redskins are going to be!

1 Miami Dolphins - Chris Long, DE - If Miami is unable to move out of this slot, Long should be the pick. Jason Taylor and Chris Long would be a nightmare for opposing QB's. Long would also provide a replacement for Jason Taylor when/if he realizes that if he really wants a title, it's not going to happen in Miami.

2 St. Louis Rams - Jake Long, OL - Last year saw a drop in production for an offense that is typically among the best in the league. Their success hinges on their ability to keep Bulger healthy. They cannot afford to have him playing with broken ribs every week because the line cant keep defenses off of his back. Jake Long will solidify the line and the Rams make a Browns-esque turn-around this season.

3 Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB - I agree with the prediction that Atlanta will draft a QB here. I would not be surprised to see them grab McFadden or Dorsey. Don't expect the Falcons to draft anyone with any character issues, which should eliminate McFadden. No way the Falcons select Petino's boy in Brian Brohm. Matt Ryan is the highest rated QB and fills the greatest position of need. His great skill set and college experience should assist in the Falcons missing the playoffs for the next five years or so.

4 Oakland Raiders - Glen Dorsey, DT - The Cryptkeeper loves big, fast players and McFadden certainly is that. The problem is that the Raiders have an abundance of running backs (that actually did a great job last year). Dorsey would fill in perfectly for Warren Sapp and complete a formidable defensive line.

5 Kansas City Chiefs  - Ryan Clady , OL - Injuries and retirement decimated the Chiefs offensive line last year. The Chiefs are desperate for linemen, so much that they will probably reach to take Clady here.

6 New York Jets  - Darren McFadden, RB - Don't underestimate the Jets' hatred for the Patriots here. I have a gut feeling that the Jets will take the player that they would least like to see end up in New England. McFadden doesn't fill their greatest position of need, however, he will pair up nicely with Thomas Jones in the running game. The biggest concern I would have about McFadden is which numbers will get the most attention in the media...his rushing yards and TDs or how many bar fights he gets into and how many illegitimate children he has during the season. He could turn into AP, but he could also turn into Travis Henry.

7 New England Patriots (from SF) - Vernon Gholston - I'm not convinced that this pick is going to be a CB just because Samuel left in FA. The Patriots have an aging LB core, and the best player on the board here will be Gholston. This should be an easy pick for the Pats.

8 Baltimore Ravens - Leodis McKelvin, DT - Matt Ryan will be a Raven should he fall to #8, but I dont see that happening. With their history of finding defensive studs in the top ten, you can bet they will draft defense again. The Ravens need to draft someone that can spend a year at nickel back while they see if Samari Rolle can bounce back from a rough 2007.

9 Cincinnati Bengals  - Sedrick Ellis, DT - A no-brainer for the Bengals. They have no bigger need than a playmaker on the line.  

10 New Orleans Saints - Aqib Talib, CB - The Saints filled many of their needs on defense through free-agency which should allow them some flexibility with this pick. Talib is a reach, but he has major playmaking ability and also has great size for a CB which is important for facing the big receivers in the AFC South.

11 Buffalo Bills  - Malcolm Kelly, WR - Lee Evans is a beast and everyone knows it. He is in a similar position as Andre Johnson was with the Texans a couple years back. All it took was Eric Moulds providing another threat on the outside to open the doors for his breakout season last year. Since Evans is a small receiver, the Bills will need someone with some size to take the pressure off. Kelly's stock may be slipping so this may not be as much of a lock as people think.

12 Denver Broncos - DeSean Jackson, WR - Here is my biggest reach by far. The Broncos are looking for a dynamic return man and Jackson is a burner. Denver seemed pretty set at receiver about a month ago, until Walker decided he wanted out of town and Brandon Marshall decided he wanted to go to blows with a panel of glass, severing an artery in his arm and keeping him out 4 months or so. They still need a DT but they will be able to draft a good one in round two.

13 Carolina Panthers - Chris Williams , OL - Carolina would like some depth on the line after an injury riddled 2007. Chris Williams should help with the Panthers power running game and also give Jake Delhomme time to get Steve Smith the ball as much as humanly possible.

14 Chicago Bears - Rashard Mendenhall, RB - Cedric Benson has turned out to be an ass-clown so they need someone to run the ball. Some people like Mendenhall more than McFadden. They could have Mendenhall and McFadden, but if they are serious about sticking with their current quarterbacks, this team will go nowhere this season.

15 Detroit Lions - Jeff Otah, OL - Mike Martz is no idiot. He knew Detroit couldnt run the ball behind their current line and with their current backs, which is why you saw the Lions rush the ball a total of 6-7 times some weeks. This more than likely cost him his job. The Lions would like to have some sort of running game this year. A 6-6, 340lb lineman is a great start.

16 Arizona Cardinals - Keith Rivers, LB - A big toe should scare the Cards from taking Stewart here so Arizona replaces Calvin Pace with the Versatile Rivers.

17 Minnesota Vikings - Derrick Harvey, DE - The Vikings luck out here with Harvey falling to them. Udeze is an obvious bust so Harvey immediately steps in for him on the line.

18 Houston Texans - Jonathan Stewart, RB - The signing of Jacques Reeves allows the Texans to draft a running back to take part of the rushing load from Ahman Green who is clearly unable to handle that kind of beating each week. He is more valuable in a rotation at this point in his career.

19 Philadelphia Eagles  - Devin Thomas, WR - The Eagles showed their cards a bit when they aggressively pursued Randy Moss in the off season. Devin Thomas is a solid receiver that will provide the Eagles with some size and skill in the return game. Reno Mahe shouldnt expect a mid-season phone call this year.

20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie, CB - The Bucs have an aging defensive backfield that they would like to address. Rodgers-Cromartie's stock is sky high after the combine so he could go much higher than this.

21 Washington Redskins - Limas Sweed, WR - Sweed would probably be a top 15 pick had he not been injured for his senior season. I expect this pick to be made by Jim Zorn, who will undoubtedly want to complete his receiving corps after missing out on DJ Hackett. DE is a strong possibility, but the Skins will have plenty of solid options fall to them in round two. If Sweed ends up going to another team, I see him being average at best. If he ends up on the Redskins, I expect him to be the greatest receiver ever to walk the planet.

22 Dallas Cowboys (from CLE) Mike Jenkins, CB - Dallas would love to get their hands on Sweed. All the more reason for us to pick him. There are no receivers worthy of this pick so they look to their most glaring need at CB. Jenkins is a great pick at #22.

23 Pittsburgh Steelers - Branden Albert, OG - I'd say this is about as close to a lock as you will see in the first round. The Steelers want to use multiple picks on the line, beginning here with Albert.

24 Tennessee Titans - Justin King, CB - The Titans provided Vince Young with another weapon in Alge Crumpler, allowing them to wait until the second round to pick up a receiver. The Titans have not drafted a receiver in the first round since 1998. Their defensive line is pretty set but they may add depth in later rounds. Now that they have severed ties with Pacman Jones, they take the best available CB in Justin King.

25 Seattle Seahawks - Dustin Kellar, TE - Mike Holmgren loves a good tight end. Mark Chmura was his guy in Green Bay and Jerramy Stevens was supposed to be that guy in Seattle. Kellar had great workouts that solidified his position as the best TE in the draft.

26 Jacksonville Jaguars - Philip Merling , DE - The Jags decided to address their need at WR through FA instead of the draft with the signings of Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter. This leaves DE as their biggest need on draft day. Merling is the best DE on the board at this point. GW loves Miami guys so Campbell could be the pick, however, I think his workouts were bad enough that he has cemented himself as a 2nd round pick.

27 San Diego Chargers - Gosder Cherilus, OL - The Chargers are in the envious position of not having a single need in the draft. When that is the case, building depth on the line is wise choice.

28 Dallas Cowboys - Felix Jones, RB - The Barber - Jones tandem is still in tact, only now its Felix instead of Julius. Jerry Jones can't pass up an Arkansas guy.

29 San Francisco 49ers (from IND)  - James Hardy, WR - Coach Nolan's job security depends solely on the success of Alex Smith. If he has another bad year, Nolan will more than likely be looking for other employment after the season. Knowing this, expect him to give Smith another weapon in James Hardy, a big target out of Indiana.

30 Green Bay Packers - Brandon Flowers, CB - The Packers need a CB and they shouldnt have much faith that someone will be there in the next round. Flowers is a solid pick here for the Aaron Rodgers led Packers (weird).

31 New England Patriots - Forfeited pick    

32 New York Giants - Dan Connor, LB - The Giants need an upgrade at linebacker. Dan Connor will be given the opportunity to start right away for the defending champion Giants and will have the privilege of getting his ass beat in weak one against the Washington Redskins.

Ok let's hear it...

I swear I won't post another diary, but I was hoping there was a reader with more expertise in the area of compensatory draft picks.

From what I understand, these picks are awarded to teams who lost more in free agency than they gained the previous year. This usually doesn't come into play for us because we have built our roster through free agency. A team like the Patriots, however, have done the exact opposite. Last year, New England received 4 compensatory picks for the players they lost. They are typically one of the teams with the highest amount of picks. Their strategy with their own free agents is to assess their value, and let them walk if they want more money than is offered. No big deal for them, they will get a draft pick in return. Since salaries of outgoing and incoming free agents plays a factor in awarding picks, the Patriots always come out way ahead. Patriots players tend to get signed for a premium when they leave (Samuel) and players typically sign with them at a discount with hopes of winning a title (Seau).

This year the Redskins are projected to receive 2 or 3 compensatory picks in this years draft. The loss of Derrick Dockery, and the fact that he signed a ridiculous contract, may actually fetch us a late 3rd round pick in the draft this year. We will probably also receive another late 7th round pick like we received two years ago when we drafted Kevin Simon. He didnt make the roster but these picks still have value. Two picks after Simon, the Saints grabbed and all-pro wide receiver in Marques Colston.

If this is true, we may end up with 8 or 9 picks, instead of just 6. That would be a tremendous opportunity to build depth and fill our 4 greatest needs (DE, WR, CB, OL) in the first three rounds of the draft.

I thought this was good news for us worth sharing. Any experts care to shed some light on this? The best article I could find on compensatory picks comes from here.

Mel Kiper's most recent mock draft predicts that the Redskins will take Aqib Talib with the 21st pick.

 I generally trust Kiper's mocks more than Todd McShay's and others, although it is still way too early to get a solid idea of who is picking who. This may be a year where we see a lot of trades up top which makes this draft even harder to project.

Aqib Talib may actually be an intriguing pick for us. I personally think he is the best CB in this class. Most scouting reports talk about his game changing ability. He get's his hands on a lot of balls in the air, 13 deflected passes and 5 picks last year. A couple of those, he took back for six. Talib is also great on third down which would be a great addition to a defense that really improved on third down last year after a horrible '06.

What intrigues me so much about this pick is Talib's potential on the other side of the ball. He showed an ability to make big plays as a WR. He had 13 balls thrown to him, caught 8, and scored 4 of those. Not bad. Some other numbers worth mentioning, 6'1, 202 lbs, 4.4 40 yard time, and a vertical of 38 inches. I still expect us to pick up a WR via free agency or the draft, but it certainly wouldn't hurt to have his size and play making ability as a 4th or 5th WR.

This projection is sure to change, but it's always fun to speculate.

I am not a huge contributor to the site, but Sean Taylor was by far my favorite player so I feel obligated to honor him in some fashion.

I remember the 2004 draft very well. I was still in college and had really only been an avid fan for a few years. I grew up with parents who were both from Texas, so I was raised knowing nothing but the Cowboys. Somewhere in highschool, the Boys lost their luster for me. It was after I saw the way they treated Jimmy Johnson and Emmitt Smith - and to a lesser extent Aikman and Irvin, that I began to pay more attention to the Skins. I loved them...I loved their players, I loved the prestige that came with the name...I loved everything about the team.

My close group of friends followed the Skins closely year by year. 2000 sealed the deal for all of us when we had the second and fourth picks in the draft...we were so excited about LaVar Arrington from watching highlights of the LaVar leap at Penn State. Samuels was a great pick, just not as pretty as LaVar. Nevertheless, 2000 was the first draft we watched...and we were hooked. There was excitement in the following years, and it was always followed by extreme disappointment. Rod Gardner, Patrick Ramsey, Taylor Jacobs...we spent hours justifying why these players would be the sure fire greatest players ever at their position but we all knew they were all hit or miss picks. Turns out they were all misses.

We didnt even have that many picks in 2004...I think we had 4, so I didnt even care about the draft. I knew about the offensive guys coming out from watching college ball. You always know about the offensive guys so I was hoping that somehow Larry Fitzgerald would fall to us at 5. After that I didnt care. That was until my buddy called me about a week before the draft and wanted to talk Skins. He'd gone through all the mock drafts and told me there was no way Fitzgerald was falling to us. "Go check out the safety from Miami, Taylor, thats who everyone is saying we are gonna get...hes pretty nasty." I honestly hadnt seen much of him...I heard the name but that was about it.I found some draft preview videos of him and I watched three minutes of this kid absolutely destroying opposing players at Miami. This was the meanest mf I had ever seen. There was some kind of evil in this guy. 3 minutes and I was sold. As stupid as it sounds, I honestly prayed that we would pick him, if Larry was there or not. We did...and just like every year we sat and justified why he would be the sure fire greatest player ever at his position, except this year was different because part of us actually believed it could be possible. So me and my buddies did what we always did after a perceived Redskin's success, we got shit canned and talked about the perceived Redskins success until we fell asleep. I remember all of us deciding that since we really didnt have a favorite player anymore because LaVar was dragging ass that Sean Taylor was our guy.

We watched him week after week just murdering people on the field. We would cringe because he was so unnecessarily brutal with his hits - like his life depended on making the other guy hurt. Every hit was as bad, as painful as he could possibly make it. It didnt take long for guys to notice either. I went to the Skins-Eagles game and saw something I had never seen before. McNabb throws a beautiful deep ball to a seemingly wide open Todd Pinkston when all of the sudden you see this freak of a human fly across the field. There was no big hit, just a receiver who values the use of his limbs enough to endure endless heckling from unforgiving Philly fan and countless mentions on Redskins blogs all over the internet to pull his arms in and avoid the hit. I still say it was the right move by Todd...because that wasnt just a man coming after you...it was a half man, half beast - a Meast. Thats just the way he was on the field. I dont see anything wrong with him destroying people when he didnt have to, no problem with him leveling a punter in a glorified two hand touch game. He played the game EXACTLY the way a defender is supposed to play. These guys get payed millions to do whatever it takes to get that football, defenders especially get paid to punish those with the ball in order to keep them out of the end zone, and he is one of the few players who did just that. I never watched a game where I didnt see him put everything he had into every step he took, every hit he laid. Some people learn the game and some people were born to play. Sean Taylor was the latter. Im sick of hearing about his less than perfect past. What's done is done. As a follower of Jesus, I know that the Bible says that the first shall be last and the last shall be first. What I do know about Sean Taylor is that when he died, his closest friends, his coaches, anyone who knew him spoke passionately about his new life as a father...about his flawless record as a loyal friend. It is truly sad from a football standpoint that we lost such a fantastic player. He was exciting to watch week in and week out. Biased as I may be, I stand by my slurred words in my buddies basement - I think he had a chance to be the best ever. I'm sorry that I will never see the day where we can sit around look back at his career and say "I told you so." From another standpoint, and more importantly, I mourn for his family, his fiance, his daughter. May the Lord be with you. Rest In Peace #21, my favorite player.