Competition discussion: Charlotte

by Mike Prada on Aug 28, 2007 4:02 PM EDT in Team Analysis

The season is still two months away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little). We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else. In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next month or so. We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z. Today's team: Charlotte.

Last Year's Record: 33-49
In: Jason Richardson (trade), Jared Dudley (draft), Jermario Davidson (draft), Sam Vincent (new coach).
Out: Brevin Knight (free agency), Jake Voskhul (free agency).

Projected starting lineup: Raymond Felton, Jason Richardson, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, Primoz Brezec
Bench (in no particular order): Jeff McInnis, Matt Carroll, Adam Morrison, Jared Dudley, Walter Hermann, Sean May, Jermario Davidson, Othella Harrington, Michael Jordan (kidding!).

So what do we think their record will be? Was it wise to trade for Jason Richardson? Will we see the Raymond Felton of 2005/06, or the one of 2006/07? Can they get anything out of Adam Morrison? Do they have enough up front?

Personally, this is the team I'm scared about in this division. Miami's too old to challenge the Wizards when we're healthy, Orlando didn't get any better with the Rashard Lewis signing, and Atlanta's still a year away, but Charlotte could be dangerous. Richardson's slightly overpaid, but I think he'll fit in well here. It was sad to watch J-Rich basically evolve into a dunker and three-point shooter in Don Nelson's system, when in reality he can offer so much more. He has an excellent post-up game that we really never saw in Golden State, and he doesn't need to use too many posessions to be effective, which will give plenty of touches to Wallace and Okafor. Long-term, I think they're in trouble, because I don't see Wallace and Richardson holding up for six years, but in the near future, they'll be dangerous.

The key is Felton. He was so good down the stretch in 2005/06, and many felt he, and not Deron Williams, was the point guard from the 2005 class that would challenge Chris Paul. Instead, his numbers pretty much stayed the same. After shooting 39 percent his rookie year, Felton somehow dropped to 38 percent last season, and while he averaged more points per game, it was only because he played more minutes. Without backup Brevin Knight, Felton is basically alone, and it remains to be seen whether he can succeed in a half-court system (which Charlotte seems to be).

Charlotte's probably one big man short of real contention, but I think you're looking at the division's second-place team.

I say 42-40.

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Comments

39-43

I'd probably have them ranked a little higher, but I'm still in a wait-and-see mode with Charlotte. They certainly appear to have everything in place to make a playoff push this year, but I'm not sure that I want to commit myself to that kind of prediction just yet.

by Jake Whitacre on Aug 28, 2007 4:35 PM EDT reply actions

reluctant

clearly, charlotte improved in a big way from a personel standpoint, but they also have a new coach and a new system. While i certainly understand where your coming from, its a little hard for me to predict a team with a new coach making such an improvement. Also, lets not forget that similar predictions were made for charlotte before last season. it wouldnt shock me if they won 40+ games, but 35 sounds more likely to me, though that still may be enough to put them in the playoffs

by joshp on Aug 28, 2007 5:13 PM EDT reply actions

38-44

I like Charlotte. They're the bad team who, on any given night, can surprise a good team other than the Wizards (any bad tem can still surprise the Wizards). And I think bringing in experience with J-Rich and keeping Wallace was a good move.

That said, I think they're one big trade or offseason move -- probably trade -- from being a real contender. Their bench is so loaded with potential (Morrison, Hermann, Carroll, May), but they don't have the veterans and it's unclear where the team leadership is going to come from. Those four won't reach their potential without playing time, and that pleads for team chemistry trouble down the road.

They might make the playoffs and then run into an early exit, but I see Orlando as a bigger threat - not because Lewis is any real improvement, but because Dwight Howard will be one year older and wiser.

by sierradave on Aug 28, 2007 6:11 PM EDT reply actions

35-38 wins

Unless Felton can make the leap that Deron Williams did last year, I can't see the Cats putting it together, even though I like the addition of Richardson. McInnis is a cancer, and that will make the questionable move of letting Knight go even more problematic. Like Atlanta, they have some promising pieces, but I'm not seeing a competitive team yet.

by Vanilla Gorilla on Aug 29, 2007 10:47 AM EDT reply actions

40-42

I agree, on paper Charlotte is looking pretty good, but I thought the same thing last year. I'm big on Gerald Wallace, and J-Rich is the big time scorer they desperately needed. Throw in a healthy Okafor down low and you have a nice looking team. I'm just not sure they put it all together this year.

However, I still think it sounds weird to talk about their chances of contending - but I'm not going to be shocked if they make the playoffs and maybe end up pulling a first round upset.

by mamemimo on Aug 29, 2007 10:52 AM EDT reply actions