So, what does Garnett mean for us?
To steal a joke from my SB Nation colleague Tom Ziller over at the Fanhouse (and Anchorman, of course), that really escalated quickly...that really got out of hand fast.
Less than 24 hours after the rumor first randomly appeared on Celtics Blog, Kevin Garnett is all set to become a Boston Celtic. The current deal, which may or may not be the final deal in the end, will send Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, and two first-round draft picks to Minnesota, according to ESPN.
Let's put aside what this means for both teams involved for a second. With Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen all on the same team, it's obvious Boston is going to be a threat in the Eastern Conference, and with all the pieces Minnesota received, it's obvious they're rebuilding. Beyond that, we can, and certainly will debate where exactly Boston stands in the East, or whether Minnesota got a good package in return, but the far bigger question, as far as I'm concerned, is what this means for the Wizards. Now that Boston has emerged as a threat, how does that effect our efforts to improve on a season that ended terribly, using the limited assets we have?
One thing's for sure, though. Considering that Boston traded basically all the young prospects they had been stockpiling for the last two years just to get KG, there's no way the Wizards could have put anything together to bring KG to DC. I know pretty much everyone here realizes that, but the sheer volume of the package Minnesota received certainly reaffirms that point. There's no reason to call out Wizards management for not trying to make a move for KG. They simply didn't have the pieces, and it's foolish to chastise Ernie for not having them when he never had KG on his radar.
But while it's a needless discussion, I do understand the emotional reaction to Ernie's lack of a big splash. Here are teams like Boston, Charlotte, New York, and Orlando -- all teams that finished behind the Wizards -- making big splashes, and the Wizards have mostly stood pat, save for a couple new draft picks. Even Toronto and Chicago picked up decent players in Jason Kapono and Joe Smith. Us? Well, we re-signed DeShawn Stevenson, drafted Nick Young and Dominic McGuire, and brought O-Pec over. We still haven't done anything to improve the defense, and if the season began today, we would still have the disastrous Thomas/Haywood tandem in the middle. So yeah, I can understand where that's a bit disconcerting.
But it's not a discussion worth having. Below the jump, a few random bullet point thoughts on what this means for the Wizards.
- The one theme that stood out to me about this trade was the suddenness of it all. If something that big can happen in the span of less than 24 hours, then surely there's still an excellent chance of a team agreeing to a more beneficial Juan Carlos Navarro package. A JCN trade would be far simpler, and while many teams are under pressure to trade for the guy, they aren't going to slow down because of the incredible ramifications.
- Boston has to be in the mix for JCN now, don't they? How could Boston enter the season with that shallow of a bench and only Rajon Rondo at the point? I'm not sure what package would help the Wizards -- maybe a Perkins/Tony Allen for JCN/Haywood/second-rounder or something like that -- but that may directly add another suitor for JCN.
- Even if Boston doesn't join the JCN trade, they indirectly drive up his market value, because they now desperately need another point guard. There are the same number of players out there(summed up nicely by Clips Nation), but there's one additional suitor. I can certainly see a scenario where Boston signs Knight and the Clippers or Memphis or someone panics and gives up too much just to fill their point guard void.
- On a more pessimistic note, could this potentially add another suitor to the Andray Blatche derby? I bet Danny Ainge prefers a veteran, but with a terrible lack of depth up front, maybe he'd take a flier on Blatche. I doubt it, but you might have the same effect on Blatche's market value as you do on JCN's, albeit in the opposite direction.
- Interestingly enough, it almost seems like the Wizards are designed perfectly to beat Boston, even though they'll definitely finish with fewer wins. I see the Celtics being very strong with their interior defense, but weak on their perimeter D (save for Rondo). I don't see how Allen and Pierce can stop all of the Wizards' strong wing players, particularly Arenas and Butler. Even if you put Rondo on Arenas, that leaves Butler to roam free.
- Could Ernie be kicking himself for not trying harder to entertain offers for Antawn Jamison? Were they even there in the first place? Is trading Jamison the only answer to solving our defensive woes if JCN doesn't yield a good return? Who would even want Jamison? These are all questions that might need to be answered in the coming months.
- What happens with AD now? I know he's old and has a bad contract, but surely he's more attractive to teams that need a point guard than Rafer Alston or Brevin Knight. Could Ernie get something in return for AD without having to trade JCN? If so, that would be a huge slam dunk. I love watching AD play, and he's still a good player, but if he has to go to improve the team's defense, then so be it. He's never been a great fit here -- point guards that need the ball in their hands and can't shoot don't fit in well with Gilbert Arenas.
- Most importantly, can Ernie honestly say this team, as currently constructed, is a real contender? The answer itself isn't all that important -- any answer to that question is pure speculation. What's more important is what Ernie thinks, and whether it means he'll have the fortitude to make a big move. Should he make a big move? I'd say that he shouldn't just because Boston did, but I think he should be calling some GMs to see what options he has. Completely standing pat would be a bad idea.
- Boston now indicated that they have no problem going over the tax. Will Abe do the same thing, only on a smaller scale? Obviously, knowing Abe, he's not going to agree to an all-out spending spree. But will he now be less stingy about a few dollars here and there? Will he give Ernie a little bit more breathing room to get everything in place? It's possible he rethinks his position in light of the Boston situation, but probably unlikely.
Overall, I trust Ernie enough that he won't do anything stupid, but I can't see this deal as anything better than a neutral for the Wizards. It may increase the market for JCN, and it may potentially lead to a solid AD deal, but it also adds another contender to the mix, and it increases the chances of a desperation move. That's why this week remains incredibly important for the Wizards future. If this doesn't help to yield a solid return for JCN, then it will end up as a major negative. Ernie better hope that Boston tries to shore up their point guard position soon, because that's the only way this turns into a positive.
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15 comments
Comments
Trade idea
Jamison and either a 2nd rounder or the rights to Veremeenko to Detroit for Sheed and Flip Murray. Detroit gets (a little) younger and gets an expiring contract if it doesn't work out. The Wizards get defensive help and Flip's expiring contract. Like I said, maybe it's crazy and I shouldn't be thinking up trade proposals at one in the morning but I wanted to throw that out there.
by JakeTheSnake on Jul 31, 2007 1:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
itd be nice.
by future on Jul 31, 2007 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Q: Does Ernie think we are a contender?
Anyone with half a brain knows this squad isn't a contender without a bigger inside presence. And Ernie most certainly has half a brain. In fact, I'd argue he has a full one.
But building this team into a contender is a multi-year process and I just don't think there was anyone out there this year that Ernie could go get to fill our needs. Yeah KG would have been nice but as you said, we couldn't give up the prospects/picks/talent.
I have no idea what's on the horizon for next year's FA crop, but hopefully Ernie's got his eyes on someone.
by smutsboy on Jul 31, 2007 10:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Contender for What?
Don't get me wrong, I'm very disappointed that it looks like the Wizards won't be acquiring a solid paint player. I've been complaining about that for weeks. But the Garnett deal is a bit of a reality check for all of us hopeless optimists. We just don't have enough pieces to acquire someone that good, and probably not even enough to acquire someone decent without breaking up the Big 3. But with a little luck, an improved defense, and more production from the bench, we just might surprise everybody come next May.
BTW, here is a good article on the state of the East's best teams this off-season. It was written before the Garnett deal surfaced, but it does have good takes on the status of the other East teams.
by cuppettcj on Jul 31, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Jamison?
Jamison will be a free agent next year.
Jamison spoke in early July to the Charlotte Observer about the possibility of finishing his career with the Bobcats.
"I asked him if he thought he might end his career with the Bobcats.
He took pains to say he was content playing for the Wizards, then added: 'It's not far-fetched whatsoever. I've got some good ties down here. ... I would love to come home and have the opportunity to play. If it happens, great. If not, I'm definitely happy with the situation in Washington.'"
Bobcats will have significant salary available for Jamison, and the Wizards who will resign Arenas to a max contract next summer will not have that space. Furthermore, Jamison wants to play for the
Bobcats, in his home state of North Carolina.
Sounds to me that there's a good chance we will lose AJ next summer for NOTHING, whereas we might have traded him this summer and got something in return.
by oneal286 on Jul 31, 2007 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I agree that we should inquire about Jamison's market value, certainly, but I don't think it's the end of the world if he leaves next year in free agency. I'd only trade Jamison if it meant we were significantly improving our defense. Otherwise, I'd hold onto him and let things play out.
by Mike Prada on Jul 31, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The title should read
by Mike Prada on Jul 31, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jamison's contract
by hotplate on Jul 31, 2007 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If there's going to be a Jamison trade
We aren't going to improve right now be moving Antawn, because the most we could hope for in return is a replacement member of the big 3 who plays better defense. But will they run the pick and pop as well with Gilbert? Probably not.
On the other hand, around the trade deadline there's the possibility of some team whose hopes have already been crushed for the season trading a solid player with a long-term contract for Jamison's big expiring contract so that they can be a player in free agency. And I agree with hotplate that it's better for us to get a lot out of him this year and then be a player in free agency ourselves than to take on a bunch of additional contracts in the hopes of keeping pace with the rest of the east.
by sierradave on Jul 31, 2007 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's how I see the East going down post KG trade
- Cleveland - The thing is, they still might coast through the regular season, but not as much as they did last year. If I didn't think that Detroit was going to decline much I'd probably still have Detroit at 1, even though Cleveland would still beat them in a best of 7.
- Miami - After last year's debacle they re-focus and get back to their championship form. That or D-Wade gets injured and they miss the playoffs entirely.
- Boston - Barring a PG acquisition, I just can't rationalize them getting a higher seed playing 3 on 5.
- Detroit - The ECF exposed the Pistons' flaws, Stuckey and Afflalo will help out but they won't negate the growing hole inside.
- Chicago - Still a year away from really harnessing their potential. I'd put them ahead of Detroit, because they did get (slightly) better but the Pistons just toyed with them in the playoffs and I don't see how the Bulls have done anything yet to keep that from happening again.
- Washington - Keeping the bar low so it's easier to exceed expectations.
- New Jersey - Their big 3 are back and the frontcourt should be markedly better, even with the loss of Mikki Moore.
- Toronto - Wait, didn't they win the division with a young team that's only going to get better? Yes, but they did so against the pudding division of all pudding divisions. The Raptors were good last year, but their W-L total was padded. A stronger Eastern Conference will show a developing team the areas it still needs work on.
- Orlando - Well, it's nice to see what $120 some odd million will get you.
by JakeTheSnake on Aug 1, 2007 4:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cleveland Stands Pat, Miami Getting Older
As for the Heat, take a look at Shaq's stats the past three seasons:
Year Team G GS MPG FG% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
04-05 MIA 73 73 34.1 0.601 0.461 10.4 2.7 0.5 2.3 22.9
05-06 MIA 59 58 30.6 0.600 0.469 9.2 1.9 0.4 1.8 20.0
06-07 MIA 40 39 28.4 0.591 0.422 7.4 2.0 0.2 1.4 17.3
Notice a trend? Let's face it, he's 35 and he's lived in the paint the past 15 seasons. He'll still contribute mightily, but I think the Heat are in a downward trend right now. They're getting less and less production from their center and they really don't have a solution at the PG spot either, unless you think Smush Parker is going to be their savior (I doubt it).
Then again, I'm not convinced that the other contenders in the East will take over the top spots, but I do think that scenario is more likely. Chicago just came off a great season with a very young, very talented team. They signed Joe Smith and the drafted Joakim Noah, so I think they've improved enough to possibly be the best team in the East this upcoming season. I would rank Cleveland behind them at this point and the Pistons behind the Cavs. I agree with your analysis on the Celts, that's why I think they're no higher than the 4th best team at this stage.
This is the season I think the Wizards finally overcome the Heat as the best team in the Southeast. They've owned us these past three seasons, but I think this year is payback time. I think we'll be the 5th best team followed by Miami, New Jersey, and Toronto.
by cuppettcj on Aug 1, 2007 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
- Chicago: 56-26
- Boston: 55-27
- Detroit: 52-30
- Washington: 47-35
- Cleveland: 50-32
- Toronto: 45-37
- New Jersey: 45-37
- Miami: 41-41
- Charlotte: 40-42
- Orlando: 38-44
- Atlanta: 36-46
- New York: 35-47
- Milwaukee: 29-53
- Philadelphia: 27-55
- Indiana: 25-57
Besides Wade and Shaq, Miami doesn't have one above-average player, save possibly for Alonzo Mourning, who won't play enough to make a major, major impact. The loss of Kapono will hurt them more than they want to believe. If Wade stays healthy, they'll make the playoffs, but this is the year they lose their grip on the Southeast. It should have happened last year -- even with Wade and Shaq, they had the point differential of a .500 team.
I see a middling 45-50 wins, the four seed, and a date with the third member of the Central trio, likely Cleveland or Detroit.
Of course, lots can still happen, but that's how I see it right now.
by Mike Prada on Aug 1, 2007 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wizards vs. Cavaliers
by cuppettcj on Aug 1, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
John Hollinger - Garnett Trade Analysis
by cuppettcj on Aug 1, 2007 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Blatche Even More Important
If Ernie can resign Blatche, the Wizards might just be a foil for the Celtics this season.
by cuppettcj on Aug 1, 2007 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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