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Continuity is King

Jerry Stackhouse.  Mitchell Butler.  Juan Dixon.  Larry Hughes.  Jarvis Hayes.  Laron Profit.  Caron Butler.  Antonio Daniels.  Chucky Atkins.  

What do all of those players have in common?  They started at least one game at shooting guard between Gilbert Arenas' arrival in 2003 to the end of the 2006 season.  

In case you're not counting, that's nine different shooting guards in the three preceding years.  DeShawn Stevenson is number 10.  Last year, he started all 82 games alongside Arenas.  Now, after signing a 4 year, 15 million dollar extension, Stevenson will guarantee that number stays at 10 when the 2007/08 season begins.

There may have been better players out there, and there may have been a way to get Stevenson for less money, but the chemistry factor makes the deal worth it, especially for a team that's been through so much turmoil at the 2 in the last few years.  It's no coincidence that the one year during this mini-run that began with a hot start (2004/05) happened when there was the most stability at the shooting guard position from year to year.  In 2005/06, the Wizards started 12-18.  Last year, they started 4-9.  That's what happens when you're always replacing one of your starters.  Obviously, it's important to play your best ball at the end, but if there wasn't that adjustment period, don't you think the seeding position would have improved?  Even if the Wizards started 8-5 this year, those four wins would have been enough to win the division.  Now, they won't have to worry about incorporating a new piece into the relatively complex Princeton scheme.


As far as the money goes, I see no reason why, taken on it's own, this is a bad contract.  Last year, there were only three starting shooting guards not on their rookie contracts that made less than 3.75 million annually: Jason Kapono (who is now at 6 million), Keyon Dooling, and Michael Finley (who still has his massive contract from Dallas).  Perhaps Stevenson is a slightly below-average player, but he was certainly very effective before all the injuries hit.  His terrible playoff performance was a blessing in disguise, because it eliminated his leverage.  The Big 3 will all be healthy again, so why waste time worrying about Stevenson's performance without them when there's a 99 percent chance he'll never be in that situation again?  I see no reason why we shouldn't expect to see the same Stevenson we saw for most of the season again.  

A couple of you seem to be concerned that the contract is going for four years because, if all breaks well, Stevenson will be replaced in the lineup by Nick Young anyway.  First off, it's three years with a player option, so it's not exactly four years.  Knowing Stevenson's penchant for testing the market, I think there's a decent chance he'll utilize that option.  Secondly, Stevenson's annual salary is small enough where, even if he is a bench player, it's not a bad contract on it's own.  Finally, it's incredibly naive to automatically assume Young will be good enough to start at shooting guard.  Even if he is talented, we've seen in Summer League that he has a ways to go with his development, and many of his flaws (lack of focus, poor passing ability) aren't very easy to fix.  If Young never develops, at least Stevenson is there for insurance.

There's only one way that this contract can make me upset, and that is if it means we can't afford Andray Blatche.  By making Stevenson the priority instead of Blatche, Ernie is taking a bit of a risk.  Based on the market, all indications are that Ernie can sign Blatche to a reasonable contract (<4 million annually) and still avoid the luxury tax.  As Ivan mentioned, the fact that Amir Johnson, a player very similar to Blatche, signed a reasonable 4 year, 12 million dollar deal bodes well for the Wizards.  But what happens if a team like Dallas, who has money to burn, throws a big offer (e.g. the full MLE) at Blatche, knowing that the Wizards can't afford to match because of the Stevenson contract?  Blatche may be unproven, but it would be a catastrophe if the Wizards, who desperately need a splash up front, let a young, promising big man get away just because they made a shooting guard the priority.  I trust Ernie knows what he's doing, but he's taking a risk here.

The other side effect of this signing is that it's unlikely that Juan Carlos Navarro sticks around.  When I heard that Navarro was leaving FC Barcelona, I was ecstatic and couldn't wait to see him in a Wizards uniform.  Since then, however, I've adjusted my view on the matter.  I have no doubt that Navarro can play, but I don't think he is the solution to our problems.  Even if he adjusts to the NBA game effectively, the fact that he's undersized and adverse to playing defense concerns me.  I see the value in using him as a scoring sniper off the bench, but isn't that why we drafted NY1?  No matter what, his skills seem redundant.  

The other argument is that Ernie has lost leverage with JCN now that Stevenson has signed, because teams will adjust their offers knowing the alternative -- JCN playing for the Wizards -- probably won't be happening.  I think that this point has some merit, but at the same time, it's not like JCN is actually under contract.  Additionally, it's not like teams were offering the moon for JCN anyway.  They were offering less than what Ernie ideally wanted before the Stevenson signing, and they'll probably offer less than what Ernie ideally wanted after the Stevenson signing.  The only difference now is that dumping either Etan or Haywood becomes a major priority.

Again, I have no problem with this move, provided Blatche is re-signed as well.  After two years of overhauling the shooting guard position, the continuity factor cannot be underestimated.  

0 recs | Comment 35 comments

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Excellent post Prada
Alot of good stuff to chew on.

First off the market is a fickle thing. Worrying about a contract a player has gotten after he signs it is pointless. DeShawn provides 4 million in worth if only because he fits in with the big 3 AND they don't have to change their lineup as you wisely point out. It's hard to constantly change cogs in the lineup and not suffer a dropoff if youre talent isn't that high. Which I dont think the Wiz talent level is high enough to not suffer a dropoff.

Secondly, there is the point of Nick Young. Expecting a 21 year old kid to drastically change the fortunes of a nba team is by and large a fallacy. Unless the Kid is a pure impact player from the get go it's a good chance the kid will be a serviceable role player until he really develops. If he ever does.

Your point about Blatche is an important one. I do find it interesting Grunfeld chose to make Stevenson a bigger priority than Blatche. Who knows though. If Blatche signs a similar deal to Amir Johnson the Wiz will probably be okay there.

by pookeyguru on Jul 14, 2007 5:07 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fantastic post
Posting and Toasting: Unabashed Knicks fanaticism with the occasional poop joke.

by Seth on Jul 14, 2007 6:24 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Blatche is Restricted
The reason Stevenson seems like a bigger priority than Blatche is because Stevenson is an unrestricted free agent. The 'zards had to be proactive to get a deal done or he could have signed with another team.

Blatche is a restricted free agent which means a) the 'zards don't have to do anything until another team makes an offer and b) it's unlikely Blatche would sign with the 'zards without first waiting to see if another offer materializes.

Lastly, don't forget Stevenson earned the new contract by playing solid D. Any offense he provides is a nice bonus but hardly the reason his new contract is justified.

Bullets fan stuck in CO.

by Krusty2 on Jul 14, 2007 9:49 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great Post
My concern is Nick Young... I was weary as soon as I read the Hollinger article saying that he had one of the three highest bust factors amongst projected 1st rounders... But honestly, as long as he is better then Jarvis Hayes I'll be happy with the pick. I wish I could see how supposedly good he was in practice to merit him getting on the floor at all in games.

Blatche must be signed. Even if we have to worry about temporarily going over the luxury tax.

Does anyone know at what date the luxury tax is calculated? Can we go over the cap and then get rid of a salary in a trade before the season starts and avoid the penalty?

by kdp922 on Jul 14, 2007 9:54 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's already been calculated
It's like 66.54 million or something like that.

by pookeyguru on Jul 14, 2007 10:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I thought it was higher
67.8 was the figure I heard, but I could be wrong.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 15, 2007 2:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yea
you probably right. I wouldn't doubt it.

by pookeyguru on Jul 15, 2007 11:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

DeShawn earned it
In a contract year where he could've gone mercenary and made the season all about himself, he deferred to the Big 3 and did the little things to help the Wizards pick up W's.  I think Unsilent put it best after the Wiz-Knicks game:

As much as I love Caron...and I would totally have his babies...I love Deshawn even more. At the end of the game he could have easily jacked it up from the baseline but instead he made the extra pass to Caron for the win. Name one other shooting guard in the league that passes up that shot.

And when you go back and look at it, he was wiiide open yet he still goes and looks to someone more open, and when he finds him he was as excited as Caron was:

Ni-Yo could learn a lot from Stunt Daddy.

The four branches of American government: -legislative -executive -judicial -Gilbert Arenas

by JakeTheSnake on Jul 15, 2007 3:36 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great post
I agree with every word, and the continuity theme is especially important in the offense the Wiz run.

Hope we can get some value from JCN. Getting rid of one of the bigs would be awesome too.

by Vanilla Gorilla on Jul 15, 2007 11:53 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Um, no
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 15, 2007 2:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, let's be reasonable here
What kinda chips?  I mean, if the chips can block shots, potentially turn into a promising scorer in this league, AND play defense...

I'm just sayin', some potato chips are reeeeeaally good.

by sierradave on Jul 15, 2007 3:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair enough
I'd do the trade for Ruffles, but not Lay's Classics.  

What about Tostitos scoops though?  I'd have to think about that one.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 15, 2007 3:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Utz
Always go with Utz.  It's summer, it's barbeque season.  Anything else is selling your guests short.

by sierradave on Jul 15, 2007 5:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Granma Utz?
If so, go for it. Mmmmm, sliced potatoes fried in lard...

by mamemimo on Jul 15, 2007 8:17 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No Paint Presence!
So Ernie has basically solidified the starting five from last year.  It's going to be Gil, DeShawn, Tuff Juice, AJ, and either Brendan or Etan at center. Ernie seems to be gambling that all the Wizards need to contend for a title is to stay healthy and get better bench production.  It seems that he either can't do anything about or is otherwise ignoring the Wizards' poor interior play (both offense and defense).

Don't get me wrong, I don't think that DeShawn was a bad choice for the Wizards at shooting guard.  He probably plays the second-best defense out of the starting five (behind Tuff Juice).  Yet as Prada pointed out at the end of the article, the Wizards now have even less leverage with other teams for JCN's services.  And it wasn't like other teams were chomping at the bit to get him before they signed DeShawn, either.  James Posey?  Stromile Swift?  What, wasn't Wayne Simien or Tarence Kinsey available?  This lack of serious interest around the league for a guy as hyped as JCN makes me wonder if he is really as good as everybody is making him out to be.  Regardless, it looks like dumping either Etan or Brendan and getting a good big man in return is looking a lot less likely.

My biggest worry is that the Wizards play as inconsistent next season as they did last season.  One day, they beat the Suns in Phoenix.  Another day, they lose to a Hornets team comprised solely of their Summer League roster.  Then, at the end of the season, after the Wizards are again disposed of in the first round of the playoffs, Gilbert thinks "is this team really serious about winning a championship?" and then signs with a real playoff contender.  Gilbert's entering his prime and he wants to win a championship badly, so I wouldn't put that past him, despite what he says now.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 16, 2007 11:41 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree, but.....
...where are we gonna find that post presence? Look, I know we need a big man that can defend the paint, rebound, and be enough of a scoring threat to make the other team pay for double teaming the Big Three, but name one that's available. Yeah, Zack Randolph was available, and he's a 20-10 guy down low, but he makes Jameson look like Bruce Bowen on the defensive end.

The problem with needing a big man is that not only does almost everyone else, but the teams with good big men aren't trading them, especially not for what the Wizards have to offer.  Look, I like the DS signing - I think he probably was the team's best 1-on-1 defender (which is not hard, Larry Hughes was our best 1-on-1 defender for a while), and he meshes well with the Big 3. But it doesn't solve our main problem - no post defense. The thing is JCN doesn't do that either.

by mamemimo on Jul 16, 2007 12:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's About Defense and Rebounding Primarily
Zach Randolph was definitely the wrong fit for the Wizards, which was probably why Ernie didn't pursue him.  You put the nail on the head when you said "be enough of a scoring threat to make the other team pay for double teaming the Big Three."  That's really all the offensive production the Wizards need from the 5.  They don't need a 20 and 10 guy, although the 10 part would certainly help.  Brendan and Etan both meet the offensive criteria.  Unfortunately, neither Brendan or Etan can guard most other league centers.

There are lots of guys under contract with other teams who the Wizards could trade for to fit the defensive need better than the two stiffs the Wizards got.  You want names?  How about Marcus Camby?  Andris Biedrins?  DeSagana Diop?  Nazr Mohammed?  Someone else who doesn't need double team help to guard his man?

And as far as what the Wizards have to offer, that's supposedly where JCN comes in.  If he really is one of the best guards in the world, then other teams should be willing to put descent guys on the table to get him, right?  Even if it means eating Etan's bloated contract.  But apparently not.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 16, 2007 12:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Names.
Again, I couldn't agree with you more (well, except for maybe Nazr Mohammed), but I just don't see where we have the goods to trade for these guys. I'd kill to get Biedrins, Diop or Camby on this team (please ask me to kill to get Biedrins, Diop or Camby on this team), but as a realist I know that we don't really have what it takes to get these guys.

Yeah, JCN is one of the best guards in Europe but:

  1. He's still an unproven player in the NBA. While everyone seems to agree that he'll probably be a good NBA pro, its not a guarantee. Its hard to trade an unknown commodity for a proven veteran, especially without overpaying.

  2. JCN's a combo guard. And a little undersized for the two. This is not a knock on him at all, but the League has far more combo guards that can score than big guys with a pulse that can actually defend.

These reasons are why JCN isn't a great trade chip. Combine that with Etan's contract (which is like carrying around a 300 pound wallet with no cash or cards in it), and its no wonder we haven't had any takers yet.

I think Grunfeld will eventually swindle someone into giving us something decent, but I think it will be along the lines of a Stromile Swift - someone not that good, but with an expiring contract. Remember, we are losing both 'Twan and Arenas next year, and we need to resign at leat Arenas (I want to sign both - hopefully we can get 'Twan cheap).

by mamemimo on Jul 16, 2007 3:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wait, one more thing about Nazr.....
Interestingly enough, Nazr's contract is almost identical to Haywood's, just one year longer. If we can do a straight up swap, I'd be in favor of it. Nazr is available - like Haywood, he's waaaayyyy out of favor with his coach. Maybe we can even get Dumars to throw in a Second Rounder to offset the extra year of Nazr's contract.

Could be a good deal for two guys that could use a change of scenery.

by mamemimo on Jul 16, 2007 3:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would never do that trade
Mohammad is slightly better offensively, but much, much worse defensively.  Add that to having one extra year on his contract, and I see no benefit for the Wizards.  At best, it's a lateral move, which has no point.  
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 16, 2007 4:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brendan or Etan Has Got to Go
Getting rid of either Etan or Brendan, regardless of who the Wizards get back, certainly has a point.  Those two simply cannot coexist together.  If Ernie can't get rid of one of them before the season starts, expect sparks to fly and plenty of off-court distractions to haunt the Wizards throughout the season.

Still, I was probably wrong to bring up Nazr Mohammed, the more I read about him.  You would think that a guy who has played the past three seasons with tough defensive teams would be a good defender, but apparently that's not the case.

Regardless, my point was that there are plenty of bangers out there that aren't that expensive that Ernie should pursue.  The potential JCN has should be enough to lure some other team into giving up someone substantial that the Wizards could use.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 16, 2007 5:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd love for any of those guys, sans Mohammad
But Golden State's not trading Biedrins unless it's for KG, and Dallas would be foolish to give up Diop when he makes only around 2 million dollars a year.

Camby has been discussed as an option, but it seems unlikely Denver deals him.  

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 16, 2007 4:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Biedrins for KG?
I didn't think he was THAT valuable!
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 16, 2007 5:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, not straight up
But as part of a package...
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 16, 2007 5:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And yeah, he's valuable
Young, improving, mobile big men are like good left-handed pitchers in baseball.  I bet he gets 12-13 million per season once his rookie deal runs out.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 16, 2007 5:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On the subject of Etan and Haywood
I think you're oversimplifying a bit.

If you could combine their strengths, you'd have the well-rounded center we're looking for.  Haywood's actually a very solid defensive center, and has been for a long time.  He's not really a shotblocker, but he alters a ton of shots with his length and athleticism.  His defensive plus/minus numbers are easily the highest on the team.  The Wizards were over six points better per 100 posessions when Haywood was on the floor.  Now, you can devalue that if you want, but ask Zydrunas Ilgauskas about Haywood, and he'd agree that he's good defensively.  The problem is that he's arguably the worst offensive center in basketball.

Thomas is the opposite.  He looks like he's active defensively, but he's both undersized and overanxious.  He's a terrible weakside defender.  Too often, he swats at the ball and commits needless fouls.  Offensively, Thomas has a number of nice post moves, and is miles ahead of Haywood.  

Most good post players require double-teams, no matter who's guarding them.  The bottom line is Haywood's good defensively, but putrid offensively, while Thomas is good offensively, but putrid defensively.  

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 16, 2007 4:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I Agree With What You Say
... for the most part.  If Haywood is in fact a good defender, I must have missed it, but I'll give you the benefit of my doubt.  But even so, Brendan is not happy here.  He walked off the court early, cleaned out his locker, and removed his name tag, remember?  Plus, he hates Etan, which makes keeping both of them a very bad idea.  One of them has got to go, and it will probably be Haywood because he is the bigger cry-baby and his contract makes him much easier to trade.

The Wizards need someone at the 5 who can make opposing players think twice before driving into the paint.  What's the status of Dikembe Mutombo?  Isn't he a free agent?  I know he's ancient, but he still did a great job for Houston last year on the defensive end when Yao was hurt.  Couldn't the Wizards use the bi-annual exception on him instead of Calvin Booth?

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 16, 2007 5:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would do that
I just don't think Mutombo wants to play anywhere but Houston.  

But yeah, if the choice is Mutombo or Booth, that's a no brainer.  Problem is the Wizards may not have enough money for either guy.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 16, 2007 5:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I see your point
But it's clear to me that Ernie's trying.  It's not so easy to fill the gap inside when there's already so much mediocre quantity down there.  

There's definitely interest around the league for Navarro.  Miami badly wants him, and it appears Memphis is very much in the mix now.  The reason he hasn't been dealt yet is because Ernie's asking price is very high, not because teams don't want him.  Miami simply has nothing to give that is attractive to the Wizards.  That, and Ernie's insistence on dumping Etan's contract (which makes complete sense) is holding things up.  I would argue that the chances of Etan or Brendan being traded are just as likely now as they ever were.  

There's still a lot of offseason left for something to happen.  

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 16, 2007 12:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I Hope You're Right
... but I think that Ernie lost leverage when he signed DeShawn.  If by "Ernie's asking price is very high" you mean that he wants someone a little better than James Posey or Stromile Swift in return, who can argue with that?
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 16, 2007 1:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Blatche is the Answer
As far as defensive post presence, don't forget that game last season where Blatche more than held his own against KG.

Also, the new guy McGuire averaged 3.6 blocks per game last season as a small forward. That's off the charts! Obviously he's not an interior defender but if you have a good, active defender causing havoc around the perimeter, it changes the dynamic and makes it easier on the interior defenders.

Bullets fan stuck in CO.

by Krusty2 on Jul 17, 2007 7:53 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Blatche could be part of the solution.
Thanks for reminding me about Blatche frustrating KG. Brings back happy memories. The problem is he's still a skinny guy, and he'll probably never put enough bulk on to guard the five in the NBA. And he does still have a ways to go on defense, even if he has given us flashes.

In response to Haywood - he does play good defense, especially against Z. I almost blew a vocal cord screaming for Eddie to stop being petty and start helping us win games during the playoffs.

I think Haywood has the talent to be the solution - but he won't be. He's solid on D, but he doesn't give a consistant effort and he clashes not only with the Wizards coaches but with other players. (Although, I'd give my left nut for footage of the Etan-Brendan cat fight.)

The problem is we've got two centers that just don't fit here, and no real easy way to remedy this situation. I hate to be a downer, but I just don't see it happening this year.

by mamemimo on Jul 17, 2007 10:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The KG game
Was actually one of the two I attended in person last year.  Here's what I wrote about the Blatche/KG storyline.

I think it was more Garnett's lack of aggression than anything.  There were a number of times where Blatche was caught on screens and Garnett got the ball in great post position.  Instead of going right up, Garnett paused and shot fadeaways that either missed or went in.  It was as if all he cared about was showing Blatche up individually on every play.  Garnett was also lazy on the glass, allowing Blatche to corral 12 rebounds.  Garnett finished with 26 and 13, but I barely noticed him.  I'm not sure that's Blatche's doing more than Garnett's own.

I probably was downplaying Blatche's role a little bit, to be fair.  

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 17, 2007 11:08 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I Mostly Agree With This About Blatche
Right now, I'm very hopeful that Blatche can develop into a complete NBA star, a lot like KG.  I think it's possible that he even becomes good enough to guard strong 4's and maybe even 5's.  But Ernie should in no way bank on this.  Blatche is still a big ? in many respects.  If he turns into the next KG, great, problem solved.  But if Ernie's smart (and I still think he is) then he'll invest in a proven big man this offseason just in case.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 17, 2007 11:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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