FanPost

The Silver Lining: Schedule Strength

[From the diaries. Great analysis that goes well beyond what we might think of right away. -Pradamaster.]

Things look really bleak right now.  Arenas can't buy a three-pointer, Antawn is sidelined, and at the end of every first quarter, the wizards are shooting 31% to their opponents' 65%.  Meanwhile, Miami is 5-1 on the month.

I see one upside to this: if the Wizards can survive February, they have a great chance to hold on to the division.  January and February were good months against tough opponents.  As a result, the Wizards don't have a lot of tough games left on their schedule (this is assuming, of course, that they return to form enough to beat teams like Portland).  What's more, Miami still has a number of tough games ahead of them, and Orlando faces a killer schedule after the all-star break.  The analysis is below.  It's still very rough, I'd be interested in comments/feedback:

I started by dividing the league into 3 categories: top tier, bottom-feeders, and middle-of-the-pack.  This was arbitrary and based on an assumption that teams are at full strength, so I felt Denver, Miami, New Orleans, and Milwaukee were all a lot better than their records, while Cleveland, Toronto, and Chicago probably won't keep up the pace their on.  I put Washington in the top tier, based on their play when they had Jamison.

So my top 10 teams were Utah, Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Lakers, Denver, Detroit, Miami, Washington.  None of these teams are an easy win.

Middle-of-the-pack teams were Toronto, New Jersey, Cleveland, Chicago, Indiana, Orlando, Milwaukee, Clippers, New Orleans, and Minnesota.  On a good night, they'll beat you, but more often than not, this should be a win.

Bottom feeders included Charlotte, Atlanta, Boston, Philadelphia, Memphis, Seattle, Portland, Golden State, New York, Sacramento.  Yes, I know New York has been playing better of late, but I'd be surprised if that lasts.

With that said, a look at schedule strength for the top three teams in the Southeastern conference suggests that the Wizards have an easier path than their rivals.  Washington has 13 games remaining against the weakest teams in the league, 16 against middle-of-the-pack opponents, and only 4 against top-tier teams (3 of these being against division rival Miami).  Of the tough western conference opponents, Washington has a game against Utah left, and that's it.

Miami, if it stays healthy, will have an easy time in their 11 games against weak teams.  They've also to 12 againt middle-of-the-pack challengers, but still have to prove themselves 8 times against the cream of the crop.  This includes Detroit twice, Houston, Dallas, and Utah.

Orlando's schedule is Death.  They've played most of their easy games, and only have 9 more against the Oden/Durant lottery chasers.  They have another 9 against middle-of-the-pack teams, and a hefty 12 games against the best ones.  That includes 3 games against Detroit, 2 against Houston, and games against Denver, Dallas, San Antonio, and Utah.

I haven't figured in home versus away games (Miami has more remaining than Washington or Orlando), and I'd expect the easy games to get easier in April and the medium ones (who will be fighting to make the playoffs) to get tougher, so there's plenty I'm leaving out of the model.  And, once again, if the Wizards keep tanking, we can start counting ping pong balls.  But a 50-win season for the Wizards would mean beating all of the worst teams and going just 9-6 against teams like New Jersey and Indiana.  Miami would have to go 23-0 against the non-elite teams, and still win 2 of 8 games against the best out there.  If the Wizards can beat Miami once in three tries, the conference ought to be theirs barring a complete breakdown.

February was goingt o be a tough month regardless of injuries.  The good news is that, once Jamison returns and Songalia finds his legs, this team will still have plenty of opportunities to win the division and enter the playoffs with a 2nd seed.  

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.