Lineup change?
When he's not needlessly attacking Kevin Martin (good rebuttal here), Steve Weinmann at the NBA Source (formerly Taking it to the Rack) is usually very insightful, though I wish he'd take it a little easy with the rhetoric. After all, he, even before me, said the Wizards would be fine after their slow start.
So I read his latest post about fixing the Wizards with renewed interest. His solution? Bench Stevenson, replace him with Blatche, move Caron to the 2, and go big. Basically, start tall-ball and move DeShawn to sixth man.
An interesting proposal, and one I'm sure a lot of people here could understand. Ultimately, I think this is really all semantics anyway; we'll see a lot of both tall-ball and conventional-ball anyway.
But allow me to respectfully disagree with this line of thinking. The argument Steve makes is that any team like the Wizards who were only average with their best player needs to change styles without him. Furthermore, without Arenas, there's not enough firepower to continue with conventional-ball, and so thus there needs to be change.
Implicitly, it seems Steve is saying that the Wizards need to remake themselves as a phyiscal, defensive team, which is all fine and good, but they need Stevenson playing a lot to do that.
I agree that Stevenson has stunk it up offensively, but no one player has benefited more from Randy Ayers than him. Okay, maybe Brendan Haywood has, but seriously, the one thing DeShawn desperately needed was a defensive coach that limited his reponsibilities. Last year, he was told to fight through every screen, contest every jump shot, and still somehow stop all penetration, all against some of the best scorers in the league. No defender in the world can do that, not even Bruce Bowen, who is blessed to have Tim Duncan behind him. But now with Ayers, Stevenson only has to funnel penetration, instead of totally stopping it. Oh sure, he still has to fight through screens, but now, he can contest shots more easily, because there's always someone behind him.
The results have been dramatic. Check out these on/off court stats. It's still very early, but thus far, the Wizards' defense is nearly 15 points better with DeShawn in the game than when he sits out. His man defense really has never been better. Ask Joe Johnson, who shot 6-24 in a double-digit loss. Ask Jason Richarson, who was never a factor the other night, Ask Brandon Roy, who shot 2-8 when the Wizards played them on Saturday. Again, it's not like Stevenson has gotten any better defensively, but Ayers has clarified his responsibilities, and you're now seeing the defender you should have seen last year.
The other thing is that the Wizards' deepest position is shooting guard, so I don't see the point of bringing DeShawn off the bench. Behind DeShawn, they already have Nick Young and Roger Mason, and Caron can always shift to the 2 if needed. Up front, though, there's Haywood, Blatche, and Darius Songaila, but until O-Pec gets healthy, that's it. Literally. Unless you want to play Dominic McGuire at the 5.
Blatche's primary value at this point is his versatility, both in his game and in his position. He can play the center spot when Haywood's out, and he obviously can play the 4. Meanwhile, Songaila's pretty much exclusively a 4, and Antawn Jamison's really a 3.5. Blatche can play both, so Eddie can use him depending on the matchups (though he's only showing now that's possible). Starting Blatche therefore eliminates that versatility, because now, you're thrusting him into an estblished role instead of using him differently in each game.
This is by no means to suggest that Blatche shouldn't be used, but if you're going to make anyone the sixth man, it should be Blatche. He can fill in at a lot of positions, and because he's mostly a jack of all trades, he can give the team a lift wherever they need it. If you need Blatche to score, he can do that, as evidenced by his performance against Philly. If you need him to rebound, he has the capability of doing that too, as he did against Charlotte. He can always block shots, and though his jumper and on-ball defense is still developing, he can do those as well. Starters' roles should be more concrete than sixth men, so why force your jack of all trades into an established role of a starter, while simultaneously moving your one real role player to a jack of all trade slot?
Just my two cents, but I don't see the point of making a starting lineup shift. Stevenson's playing a lot better than people think.
0 recs |
9 comments
Comments
absolutely agree
That said, I lke the idea of featuring this tall lineup, particular late in the game when we don't need to worry about foul trouble as much.
by sierradave on Nov 23, 2007 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nice Analysis
by Aldo on Nov 23, 2007 4:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for considering my proposal
Part of the motivation for my initial column was that I was wondering whether or not now is the time to really roll the dice with getting Blatche more involved. As I referenced in the piece, I wrote a column over the summer that was somewhat less than complimentary of the work done by the Wizards' front office in pursuing Blatche for a contract extension (what happened with that, by the way? Call me crazy, but I could have sworn I read in several spots that they had re-signed him for something in the neighborhood of $15 mil over 5 years, but a quick check of Hoopshype seems to indicate that he is not under contract past this season. Please enlighten me so I can stop feeling like an idiot about this...). I knew Blatche was talented, but he hadn't produced early on and had already had his share of troubles nad wondered if it was worth the Wiz bothering with him.
Ultimately, however, my morality isn't the deciding issue there; front office judgment is. The Wiz chose to stick with Blatche, and certainly sooner or later, they will have to learn what they can get with him. He certainly appears to have played rather well over the last week (highlighted by the 13-13-5 effort on Wednesday), and it was my impression that Gil's absence creates more of a nothing-to-lose mentality, in that, justified or not, the expectations are automatically lowered with him gone for the foreseeable future. Going big seemed like a good way both to shake things up a bit and to get Blatche some added opportunities, which would seem to come at less of a cost than ever now.
Despite Stevenson's improved game defensively (thanks to Ayers, as you say), I would still wonder whether the Wiz would be a better unit defensively with the tall-ball lineup, especially given the way Blatche changes situations on the interior. Further, do you think Stevenson's offensive game might benefit from a role change? Something akin to the classic "change of scenery" cliche, although he isn't being traded here. I could be completely off base about this, but I would think it wouldn't affect his improved defense but might give him a different shot to get in a groove? Or would it be the same problems offensively at a different point in the game for him? I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on this.
More than anything, I'm absolutely in agreement with you about the depth issue. I considered it while writing, and though my decision was that depth might have to come secondary to having the best possible lineup on the floor (if my suggested lineup would fulfill that requirement, which certainly isn't a given). However, starting Jamison, Blatche and Haywood would certainly leave the Wiz spread very thin as far as frontcourt players coming off the bench, and I'm not sure there is a way to rectify that without signing a free agent big man. Certainly, it's a large strike against my suggested lineup that right now I simply don't have a remedy for.
Ultimately, it's worth remembering that my belief that there is a need to shake things up could be completely over-pessimistic in the first place. This team is, after all, in the midst of a six-game winning streak, the last three of which were played without Arenas. While I've maintained in my Picksix handicapping columns at TittR that the Wiz would get on this run thanks to a weak scheduling stretch, you can only win the games on your schedule. And since the 0-5 start, the Wiz have not failed to do exactly that every time out for close to two weeks now. So perhaps I should wait to see if things will really go that far wrong in the first place.
Anyway, we're way past the point where I should be wrapping up this far too long-winded commentary. Just really appreciated your willingness to take a look at my thoughts on the Wiz and figured I would put a couple of more points up for consideration. Thanks for the time.
-sw
by Steve Weinman on Nov 23, 2007 6:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's a good 4th quarter lineup
Attacking the basket early to draw fouls is like establishing a running game in football: whether it works particularly well early on, you do it because it has important effects on the rest of the game.
Deshawn doesn't see a lot of minutes in the fourth - with Gil healthy, it seems to me that's where we usually see the Gil-Daniels backcourt - so I think that would be a great place to see a lineup of Daniels-Caron-AJ-AB-BTH. That takes away the foul threat and gives us firepower and a defensive presence when the game is most on the line.
Thanks for posting a response, nice seeing this interchange.
by sierradave on Nov 23, 2007 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent point
Didn't even think about the foul trouble issue for Blatche, which is nearly always a problem for young bigs. Good call on your part.
Guess the question becomes whether or not it's smarter to have Jordan coach in a way to keep him out of said trouble or to use trial by fire to let the kid learn how to avoid that problem down the road, especially as I would presume that the long-term goal is for him to be a starting big on this team, should he be in town down the road.
Wholly agreed about making sure Blatche gets the chance to showcase his talents -- and what he is making of them -- one way or the other.
Always happy to help further the discussion.
-sw
by Steve Weinman on Nov 23, 2007 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Salary info is right
by Doctor Dribbles on Nov 24, 2007 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Doc
HoopsHype is usually very reliable for this stuff...but their Wizards salary page currently lists Blatche at making $2.47 mil this year and not under contract thereafter. Which would have made my column from the summer look particularly dumb.
Clarification appreciated.
Here's hoping he turns out to be a steal for you. As long as he doesn't hurt my Celts.
-sw
by Steve Weinman on Nov 24, 2007 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well....
My post turned into a why-not-start-blatche discussion when it started as a dont-start-stevenson thread. I think stevenson should play the minutes of a 6th man, but he doesnt bring the instant energy or the (to borrow a football term) change of pace factor that nick young and blatche can bring off the bench. Its like why the spurs start finley and bring ginobili off the bench. I think stevenson and his solid defense should be the base which we alter with the other guys, not the other way around.
by Wooz on Nov 24, 2007 12:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
with arenas gone, stevenson doesn't fit as nicely
i'm with prada. keep starting stevenson. his defense helps. he'll still get open looks created by daniels, caron, and antawn. and i don't think deshawn works well off the bench since he really isn't a scorer.
i do like the big lineup with caron at the 2 and i'd like to see it more in the right situations. caron can't guard the quicker 2 guards unfortunately.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 24, 2007 10:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

by 














