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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

1-0 in the P.A. era

Box Score.
Post recap.
Times recap.
Les Bullez.
Wizards Insider.
DC Pro Sports Report.

Highest plus/minus: Caron Butler (+11)
Lowest plus/minus: Darius Songaila (-15)

Gotta say, Gilbert's injury news obscured a pretty solid road win.  Not only does Charlotte normally give us problems, but we were also missing Brendan Haywood, killing an already shallow frontline.  Surprisingly, the Wizards were in control for most of the game, and survived a barrage of poor officiating at the end to hang on.  

Without Arenas, one of the major questions that needs answering is whether Caron Butler can continue to raise his game.  If last night was any indication, the answer is a resounding "yes."  39 points on just 23 shots is very impressive, as is the 12-12 from the free throw line.  Remember, one of Butler's major problems is his lack of aggression, but that wasn't the case tonight, and really hasn't been the case since the first few games of the season.  He even showed that he's developing new range on that three-point shot, hitting a huge one in overtime to put the game out of reach.  

The other guy who really impressed me was Blatche.  He was literally the only interior guy we had, but he more than held his own, blocking five shots and grabbing 13 rebounds.  Emeka Okafor still had a good game, but that's to be expected, considering the size advantage he holds on Blatche.  I actually like seeing Blatche at center, just because it gives the offense a new look, considering Blatche's ability to find people from the high post.  Watching this guy mature really has been the joy of the season thus far, and it's becoming more clear that Ernie was smart to lock him up so cheaply.  

Jamison was also big yesterday, hitting some really clutch shots down the stretch.  I doubt he duplicates these efforts against teams with real frontlines, but still, he has to be big without Arenas, and last night, he was.  On an aside, Charlotte really shot themselves in the foot by going small throughout the fourth quarter, though I don't know what else they'd do.  The Wizards had no big men, yet Charlotte didn't have the personnel to take advantage.  Give the Bobcats a healthy Sean May, and this is a blowout.

Defensively, the Wizards were okay until the fourth, where there were too many breakdowns.  Antonio Daniels played well offensively, but he was powerless to stop Raymond Felton on penetration.  AD's simply too old and too banged up to consistently keep quick point guards in front of him, which worries me, because that's been our weakness in the past.  At least DeShawn is D'ing up well -- I barely noticed Jason Richardson yesterday.  The old problem of not closing out on three-point shooters reared its head as well, though less so down the stretch.

The one area where we'll miss Arenas, more than anything, is with ball-handling.  After AD, there's really nobody who can handle pressure and set up our halfcourt offense with enough time to spare.  If we're going to add someone to our roster, that's where Ernie and Abe should look first.  Someone like Earl Boykins is available (though I don't like him), and I'm sure we could use a conditional draft pick and a salary to pry one of Houston's point guards away.  Roger Mason played well, but he can't handle pressure, and neither can Stevenson.  I know the luxury tax is a concern, but we're simply too shallow to avoid it.  Someone mentioned Marbury earlier today, and to be honest, if you can have him for cheap (like vets min cheap), I'd consider it, so long as he stays behind AD on the depth chart.  He can still handle the ball, at least.  Just no Donnell Taylor, please.  

Are we going to win many games like this?  Probably not.  As good as Butler was, we needed practically every one of his 39 points, and it's not like most of the team played badly.  Songaila absolutely needs to play better -- he almost singlehandedly blew the game with his awful defensive play -- but otherwise, who really stunk it up yesterday?  Nick Young played well when he was in there, and even Dominic McGuire made a contribution.  In theory, AD needs to play better defense, but I worry if he can, and I also worry about him breaking down.  

The optimist in me, though, says we survived a decent team on the road with awful officiating down the stretch.  Haywood will be back, and that will be a major help, and once we get another ball-handler, that will make AD play better.  Songaila will have his moments, because he's not going to play against a bunch of guards every game.  Finally, while Butler won't be this good again, it does seem like he's taking on added offensive responsibility effectively, and I see no reason why he can't still play at a high level.

In short, we still don't really know how good this team is without Arenas, but this was as good a start as we could have expected.  

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A couple thoughts
-We'll really know where this team stands by the end of the month.  They've got five games left, three of them against sub-500 teams (though golden state is starting to wake up and remember they can play ball).  If they go 3-2, that would be outstanding (I don't see wins against Dallas and San Antonio on the road).  2-3 also would be acceptable, and would put the team at 8-8 after one month, a sight better than last year's 4-9 even with the terrible start.  It would also indicate that these last few wins weren't a fluke.  1-4 or 0-5 suggest we've got a long bumpy road ahead.

-Last night was a quality win, and great to see.  I'd emphasize that it wasn't a good measure of where the team stands without Gilbert.  In particular, we've got to remember that we were missing two starters, not one, last night.  And that also meant three of our 4 big men were in street clothes.  That leads to a wacky rotation, eliminates the big lineup that has shown such potential, and means we have one fewer serious scoring option coming off the bench.  Again, five games with a healthy Brendan will give us a much better window into the next few months.

-Absolutely, a backup point guard is what we need right now.  In particular, Daniels gets a lot of his offense by driving hard and getting contact.  He's durable as all hell, but I don't like the idea of our sole ballhandler playing pinball night in, night out for the next three months.  At 40+ minutes/game, we'd be asking for another injury, and then this team becomes the Atlanta Hawks North (quality forwards, zero guards).

-As for who that ball handler would be, I've gotta say no to Starbury.  Is there any chance he'd be willing to sit on the bench behind Daniels and not become an insane clown after two games?  Boykins sounds like a decent option.  And let me just throw this out there, though I don't know if he's much of a passer: we need hope in this dark time.  We need a savior.  Shouldn't we turn our eyes to... God Shamgod?!?

by sierradave on Nov 22, 2007 3:30 PM EST reply actions  

Beautiful
The power of God will save us.

I guess I was trying to say that I'd rather have Starbury than Donnell Taylor, which is like saying I'd rather watch American Idol than Grey's Anatomy.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 22, 2007 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Backup Guards
JCN sure would be nice to have sitting on the bench right now!
I knew Manute Bol, and you sir are no Manute Bol!

by houserocker on Nov 22, 2007 3:52 PM EST reply actions  

That makes two times...
that name has been mentioned here since Gilbert's injury.

I'm keeping a tally.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 22, 2007 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Marbury
I think I'm the one who first tossed out Marbury's name . I wasn't totally serious but wouldn't be surprised to see him bought out by the Knicks in the next couple of weeks. So he could become available. Since Marbury is still in the midst of his "bad boy" phase, I don't think he would accept a back up role in exchange for being on a playoff contender. Ultimately, I think Brian Chase may be the best alternative.

by hotplate on Nov 22, 2007 5:22 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, I was the first tally
I honestly wasn't big on him when it was all going down, I looked at him strictly as an asset... I guess I need to get better information on Gil's knee. But even if Gil's injury was completely unpredictable, the guy that gets paid to shape the roster shouldve considered the fact that Gil might have some troubles... most posters showed at least a minor level of concern for his ability to be 100% this year.

Then again, I don't remember if it was ever revealed that JCN just refused to play here... but if there was a way to have signed him

07-08 Reg Season Stndgs(predicted 8/6/07) 1 Chi 52-30 2 Was 51-31 3 Cle 50-32 4 Bos/Det 48-34 6 Tor/Mia 47-35 8 NJ 42-40 9 NY/Orl 41-41

by kdp922 on Nov 23, 2007 7:59 AM EST reply actions  

caron
why don't you think he'll play like that again? he's not going to do that every night, but i imagine he'll have some more big games this season. he's goooooood.

the gilbert news really really really sucks, but getting a win on the road the day the news breaks with only one active player capable of playing center is HUGE. i think it's inspiring.

finally, i'm not a songaila hater like prada, but i have to admit, when ej puts him in at center, other teams go on runs. they need someone who can block shots in at all times. try dmac at center before songaila. songalia looks like he should be restricted to PF only.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 23, 2007 8:59 AM EST reply actions  

Hey now
"Hater" is a little strong.  That's message board talk.

Also, you answered your own question with Caron.  He's not going to get 39 points every night.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 23, 2007 10:20 AM EST up reply actions  

no 39, but he did drop a triple-double
albeit against the defenseless warriors.

of course he's not going to drop 39 every night, but he's going to have some more huge games this year.  i thought you were saying caron wasn't going to have another 39 point game this season. i think he will.

and i was trying to be funny with "hater". just teasing. you ride songaila pretty hard on your posts.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 24, 2007 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Also don't know about the backup center
opposing teams are ging to start prepping their defenses to treat Caron as our main offensive threat.  They're also going to stop sleeping on Andray.  That doesn't mean both won't still be good, but they're going to need to play a lot better just to maintain the same scoring clip.

by sierradave on Nov 23, 2007 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

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