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Wizards 99, Pistons 96

There are two schools of thought when it comes to close games.  One says that there is little luck in winning close games, because the team that is mentally stronger will execute and "come through in the clutch" more often than not.  The other says that consistently winning close games is more luck than skill, as there are infinite plays and infinite variable that can potentially be altered to change the outcome.  

Personally, I'm very firmly in line with the second school of thought, but this Wizards team is making me rethink my beliefs.  Tonight, the Wizards moved to 7-1 in their last 8 games decided by 5 points or less, defeating the Pistons in Detroit 99-96.  

Star-divide

I've ragged on Antawn Jamison a bit on this site, but he came through with a huge performance tonight, scoring 35 points and hitting the dagger three to put the Wiz up 1 with under a minute to go.  Jamison's perimeter game was a tough matchup for Detroit all night, as Rasheed Wallace was unable to get out on Jamison on the wing.  Whenever Wallace did get out, Jamison's quickness allowed him to drive right by Wallace.  It was simply bad planning by the Pistons, who should have known that Wallace couldn't handle Jamison on the perimeter.

To add to the bad planning by Detroit, this is one of those games where the Chris Webber signing hurts them.  Ordinairly, Jamison's inability to defend in the post would have been a liability, and Sheed would have eaten him alive.  However, Webber's presence in the lineup allowed the Wizards to hide Jamison, thereby negating Detroit's plans.  It's no wonder that Antonio McDyess, a stronger, more post-oriented big man, destroyed the Wizards inside in his 24 minutes.  Jamison had nowhere to hide anymore.  Yet Flip Saunders played Webber for 32 minutes and McDyess for only 24.  That's bad coaching, and it cost Detroit the game.

Still, going back to winning tight games, the Wizards have developed a mental edge they lacked last year.  Last season, the Wizards pythagorean record (aka expected wins based on point differential) was 46-36, four games better than their actual record.  This indicates a deficiency in winning close games.  This year, however, their expected winning percentage is lower than their actual winning percentage, indicating an increase in winning close games.  

When you translate this on the court, it's clear there's a difference.  You can see that with someone like Caron Butler, who, after having an awful game (easily his worst of the season) to make a couple big rebounds and free throws at the end.  You can see it with Jamison, who managed to step back at just the right time to shake free of Sheed and drain that go-ahead three.  You can see it on the last posession, where the Wizards completely locked down the Pistons on the three-point line, forcing Sheed's wild, off-balanced attempt.  Last year, the Wizards were playing at a level that merited this type of record, but they never got there.  This year, they're there, and it's because of late-game execution.

One other reason the Wizards won this game was because Eddie Jordan chose to play his six best players, rather than play guys like Jarvis Hayes and Etan Thomas extended minutes.  Hayes and Thomas played fewer than 10 minutes tonight, and everyone else logged heavy minutes.  Brendan Haywood played 39 minutes in this one, and his length frustrated the Pistons up front.  Antonio Daniels played 26 minutes and had another solid game, scoring 9 points on 4 of 5 shooting.  Gilbert Arenas played all 48 minutes, and despite only shooting 10 of 27, still managed to play decently.  It's not a strategy that's going to be effective in the long run, but for tonight, it was the right way to go.  

In contrast to Flip Saunders, who played Webber too many minutes and failed to put McDyess and Nazr Mohammad in for enough minutes, Eddie Jordan may have been smarter with his rotation.  When's the next time you're going to hear something like that?  

In the end, in a game that could have gone either way, the Wizards found a way to win against one of the East's best teams on their imposing home court.  That's a big deal, no matter how you slice it.

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big win
this game certainly shows how much the wiz have improved this season,

my observations

  • caron had a tough time guarding tayshaun prince when he was posting him up in the 4th, it led to 2 3s and a jump hook by prince
  • eddie jordan played jarvis hayes and donnell taylor for a total of 8 minutes, which is a good thing
  • arenas shot too much and thus another 38%
  • great defense to read pistons' last play to prevent detroit from hitting the three

btw, which duo do you think  would be more effective? arenas and deshawn? or arenas and daniels?

by sirnanzy on Jan 27, 2007 5:34 AM EST   0 recs

Gil and AD..
..down the stretch is a good combo (that's what helped them last night)

Watching it on 1.5x speed tape this morning I too found that Caron was getting abused by Tay (that is, before they stopped going at it) which I guess somewhat explains his poor offensive outing.

Defense! Hey, they actual forced some pretty good turnovers that led to easy buckets, that's... something.

Tom Tolbert made fun of 82games.com saying that people had too much time on their hands... snif.. meanie.

by TheHype on Jan 27, 2007 12:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

It's basically a dead heat
Arenas-Stevenson: +94
Arenas-Daniels: +87

Strangely enough, the Wizards defensive efficiency is significantly better with the Arenas/Daniels pair (103 Defensive efficiency, compared to 107.5).  Stevenson/Arenas pair is better offensively (112.8 to 111.1).

I'm not sure what to make of that, but it's interesting.

I guess the best conclusion is that it depends.

All that data is from 82 Games.  I guess I have too much time on my hands, Tom.

by Pradamaster on Jan 27, 2007 12:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Tom Tolbert
repeatedly said he talked to Arenas before the game

like 10 times

by sirnanzy on Jan 27, 2007 12:47 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Big Wizard win
Another big win for the Wiz ... and a very important statement after the Phoenix loss.  Shows they are a serious contender in the East (and hey, let's not forget, they're 8-8 versus the West with some big quality wins, so all the national media haters can stuff it).  EJ's rotation yesterday was great.  Wonder if that means that he starting to understand where his quality minutes come from.  No more small ball!  Game day grades:  Gilbert brought his B game, but made some A level decision making.  Not forcing his shots in the last couple of plays was key.  Antwan -- A+ ... he totally got jobbed on the non-goal tending call on Webber late, but had the poise to come back and hit the huge 3 that really gave them a chance to win.  Overall, one of his best games of the season.  Caron -- another solid B ... even though his shot wasn't falling, he hung in and made tough plays with key free throws and rebounds.  B+ to Brendan who hit some big free throws and generally clogged up the middle effectively.   And, a solid B to DeShawn/AD (they really are co-starters).  Good to have the team win against a strong Detroit team -- on the road -- with mainly a B-level performance.  Beginning to get redundant, but a great win for the Wiz!

by westcoastwizard on Jan 27, 2007 11:00 AM EST   0 recs

About luck vs. skill in winning close games...
...one phrase:  The Nationals' season before last.

by miestersean on Jan 27, 2007 1:35 PM EST   0 recs

Yeah, that keeps ringing in my head
How the Nats started so fast in 04/05, only to fade down the stretch.

Basketball is different to some degree; the luck factor plays less of a role.  However, as the Bucks of 05/06 and the Jazz of 06/07 prove, winning close games is very much luck before skill.

We shall see

by Pradamaster on Jan 27, 2007 2:42 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

point differential as related to win %
in baseball you can take runs scored/runs allowed and it will give you a good indication of probable winning percentage.  I know the season is longer and the runs are significatly less than points in basketball but i wonder what this would show.  the stat successfully projected the nats collapse in '05.

by facekdr on Jan 30, 2007 3:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

good game
Any road win over a +500 team is a good one in my book. I only saw the second half and noticed that the only sub was AD. I'm with Eddie. He's the only sub that I trust when the game's close.

by hotplate on Jan 27, 2007 5:05 PM EST   0 recs

Yeah
Eddie seemed to really want this one badly.  He was about as intense as I've ever seen him.

I say they should play Etan decent minutes, but not Hayes.  You can't win every game with a 6 man rotation, but in the playoffs, you can do so.  Hopefully, Songaila will give the Wiz a lift.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jan 28, 2007 2:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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