There's an old adage I'm fond of; for every complex problem, there is a solution simple, neat and wrong. There's been quiet talk of the (draft) benefits of losing. Ken Meringolo has been preaching blood and thunder at Hogs Haven about rooting for losses while Eric Bickel takes a more measured approach to the subject.

Now you could (and should) point out quite rightly that the NBA is not the NFL. Bickel concedes the far greater impact individual players can have in basketball. But that's also why the NBA instituted the draft lottery, to mitigate the effects of tanking. So when Cedric Jackson hits a last second three pointer to send us from third in the lottery down to fifth in the final game of regular season play, the Wizards can still end up with John Wall.

Bickel also makes an excellent point when he says selecting higher is certainly preferential to picking lower, but no guarantee of success. This is again less true in the NBA, but don't tell that to the Atlanta Hawks, who drafted Marvin Williams #2 after Andrew Bogut, yet before Deron Williams and Chris Paul. Danny Ainge's draft and trade machinations should remind everyone that once your franchise guy is in place, a great GM can make it rain. I'll leave it to you in the comments to argue about whether or not EG is that guy. I believe he's making a case for it, but the day's not over, as they say.

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The contest has concluded, thanks to everyone who participated: Johnnie Futbol, zl, jmpalomo, believe_the_curse, MR, cuppettcj, Revan1000, Rook 6980, khrabb, satchmore, kyleMaroc, GJennings, steadyhand, Elvin_is_my_Elvis, Dutch Hoopfan, BobbyD1978, fballplyr92, FireErnieNow!, Aquamaneastfish, Jake Whitacre, and Jheiser3.

zl, believe_the_curse, satchmore, kyleMaroc, steadyhand, Elvin_is_my_Elvis, BobbyD1978, and Jake Whitacre all correctly predicted a quiet night on the trade front.  Tobias Harris was a name popping up fairly often at #18, but of course no one expected Chris Singleton to fall that far.  Nolan Smith was popular at #34, and the Trailblazers selected him all the way up at #21.  Finally, at #6 Kawhi Leonard was the popular choice.  Another victim of draft freefall, there was only one would-be GM who called Jan Vesely at #6: kyleMaroc.  Congratulations, Kyle!

Once again, thanks to the guys at twoeightnine design for making the contest possible.  kyleMaroc, send me an email, and I'll get you sorted.  Beware, I will submit my own ineligible entry in 2012.  Next time, I'll be deadly serious next time!  The contest winner's tiebreaker below the jump.

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Social scientists introduced the concept of unintended consequences. When a change is introduced in a complex system, often unexpected outcomes, both positive and negative, will result. With that in mind, when the Wizards selected Jan Vesley, Chris Singleton and Shelvin Mack in the 2011 NBA Draft, their selections will likely have a direct influence on any decisions the team makes to further reshape its roster.

The Wizards were able to select three players who addressed specific areas of need. It is expected that all three will make the team, so how will their selection affect the team's decision moving forward? How will their presence impact which existing players the Wizards keep and what players they target in free agency? Introducing these three players will have an immediate and direct impact on other players on the roster.

Let's take a look at the current state of the unofficial roster broken out by the primary position each player is expected to play:

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Note: Every time we talk about next season, pretty much for the last year, we've been obligated to tack on a parenthesis: (if there is one).  At this point, it's feeling fairly obnoxious, and with the NFL resolution apparently proceeding apace, it's extremely likely David Stern doesn't want to be the only major sports league without a chair when the music stops.  The confluence of lockouts has been a media shield of sorts, and speculation about what a lockout would do to spoil a golden postseason has been rife.  Personally, I'm fairly optimistic about a speedy resolution, and don't think a lockout would last more than a month, maybe two. 

Anyway, there were plenty of question marks in Thursday night's draft, but my favorite was the Knicks' selection of Iman Shumpert.  We can talk all we want about how New York's backcourt rotatation needed to be bolstered or how Shumpert's shot looked far stronger than expected at draft workouts to go with his 40" vertical.  The truth of the matter is that the Knicks were in a difficult situation. 

But when your superstars need rest (Amar'e Stoudemire played over 500 minutes during one two-week span, I believe), having a talent like Chris Singleton balance some of the offensive loss with defensive intensity that comes with a better catch-and-shoot game then you expected is imperative, isn't it? Mike D'Antoni might be able to figure out a use for Singleton in the half court, even if it's Phil Jackson's solution for Ron Artest (go stand in the corner)! You have to take Singleton there, right?  And when the guy can take on the burden of defending any first option at the 2-3-4 positions (leaving that much more focus on the offensive end for YOUR elite scorers, you have to take that, right?

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I, along with a couple other reporters, had a good chat with Washington Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld after the press conference where Jan Vesely was introduced.  Grunfeld provided a number of interesting nuggets about Vesely, the team's history with him and how they approached the 2011 NBA Draft.  Here's a summary:

Vesely was on their radar for a long time: During the press conference, Flip Saunders said the Wizards identified Vesely "a few years ago" as a guy they wanted.  Grunfeld elaborated on that, saying the Wizards had followed him for "three years, at least."  He added that they "intensified that process" the last couple years, when Vesely was potentially draft-eligible.  He even said that they would have considered taking him last year had he stayed in the draft and had the Wizards not won the lottery.

"Last year, we [originally] had the fifth or sixth pick, and he was one of the guys in our wheelhouse as we were really looking at."

Grunfeld himself said he saw him play two or three times in person this year, and was also scouting him at the Euroleague Final Four last year.

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Jan Vesely will be introduced as a Wizard today at 10 a.m.  I'm not sure if it's streaming anywhere, but I'll be there asking questions and such.  If anyone finds it, let me know.

UPDATE: Comcast SportsNet has a live stream here.

I'm tired, and everyone else is tired.  But first, some more Wizards-related draft links.  If you missed it earlier, Sean posted a bunch before here, and Rook, Bullet Nation in Exile and myself all gave our takes on the draft.  Now, the links:

• The inside scoop on everything from Michael Lee. [Wizards Insider]
• Today's must-read: a breakdown of Jan Vesely's strengths and weaknesses, with video. [Sebastian Pruiti, NBA Playbook]
• OK, one more must-read: this journey with Shelvin Mack on a roller-coaster draft day. [Jeff Goodman]
• Ted Leonsis is happy, and he reiterated the demands of teams ahead of the Wizards as far as a trade-up. [Ted's Take]
• Radio hits via 106.7 The Fan: [Jan Vesely, Ted Leonsis, Ernie Grunfeld, Ernie Grunfeld again]
• Jan Vesely says he loves to "posterize" and that Blake Griffin should be called "the American Jan Vesely" [Chris Miller, YouTube]
• More on Chris Singleton playing with a chip on his shoulder [Truth About It, who also secured video gold with this bit with Jan Vesely's girlfriend]
• Also, he owns his own clothing line. [Capital Games]
• More good grades and positive thoughts on the Wizards' draft. [Chris Mannix, Kelly Dwyer, Tom Ziller, Chris Palmer, Matt Moore, Wizards Extreme, SB Nation D.C.]
• It was all about the kiss.  That sealed it for these two. [Andrew Sharp, DCIst]
• And finally: Bill Simmons' Draft Diary, which is always entertaining. [Grantland]
• OK, one more Grantland link: a funny look at what Vesely should do in the 2012 Dunk Contest.

So the NBA Draft is over - and our Washington Wizards picked a European forward, a potential defensive stalwart and a combo-guard. Obviously I would have preferred a trade to move up to select either Derrick Williams or Enes Kanter, but as Mike Prada pointed out in his post,  it takes two to make a trade.

Apparently teams wanted to fleece the Wizards by asking for the No. 6, No. 18 and the No. 1 pick next year - Crazy talk. (Hey David Kahn, I hope you have fun trying to move Michael Beasley... LOL... Good luck with that!).

So it is what it is. I really think that Kanter was the perfect fit for the Wizards next to both JaVale and Andray Blatche. But the Wizards were forced to hang on to the 6th pick (and the 18th) and stick with plan A. Unfortunate... but I guess it was better than mortgaging next year's Lottery pick. So here's my take on the Wizards 2011 draft. I've graded each selection and my overall grade is at the end.

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