Game thread will be up at 5.  Until then, this can tide you over.  In case you missed it, Darius was suspended for tonight's game for his slap to LeBron's face.

Much has been made about Caron Butler's play in Game 5, and frankly, it's all deserved.  In our most important game of the season, Caron finally discovered that the team needed him to be The Man.  We needed him to take all the big shots, even if some of them were forced, and he came through.  We've been talking about that aspect of his game since way back in December,

But what I find more fascinating about the ebb and flow of Caron's series, and really, his season as a whole, can be encapsulated by his comments before the game. 

Don't judge this team by comments, LeBron made a statement: 'these guys are talkers' but unless you hear something from the captains, which would be myself and Antawn, don't label that as the team. I'm the voice of this team and Antawn is the spiritual and emotional leader so unless you hear it from one of us, keep it moving.

Now, I'm consistent on my opinion that the "comments" by DeShawn and even Gilbert didn't do much to affect the outcome of this series.  I don't think they motivated LeBron any more than playing the Wizards would have motivated LeBron anyway, and I'm not so keen on the significance of the mind games that have been played.  DeShawn's demeanor before the series bothered me only because he made himself, and by extension the team, look like idiots. 

Still, there's a lot of significance to Caron's words.  For the last few years, Gilbert has been the best player, while Antawn has been the locker room leader.  It's a role Antawn was slow to grow into, but we saw it a lot even last season.  There was that anecdote, for example, that Ivan Carter shared about Jamison's discussion with Andray Blatche, about Blatche's work habits (I can't find a link right now).

Amid all of that, Caron settled into a third fiddle role, known only for his quiet demeanor.  Proponents would say he was "leading by example," and that he was a "no-nonsense professional."  It was a nice way of saying that he wasn't vocal enough, for whatever reason.  Even last year, I think the team respected him enough where if he had spoken up, they would have listened.

That's why I'm so encouraged by Caron's statement.  The fact that he followed it with an absolute take-charge game is no coincidence, methinks.  He has finally realized that the team needs more from him than just being a second banana, both on and off the court.  Like it or not, he's an authority figure, and he needs to start acting the part.  Speaking out like this is exactly what he should be doing.

So while I do share a bit of jvflail's skepticism about the hollowness of the words, I don't think that's important in and of itself.  The more important thing is that Caron is speaking out like that, realizing that the team needs him to be a spokesperson for them.  If, as this team really needs, Caron emerges as the "leader" while Gilbert Arenas continues to be the "best player," then these comments are the important first step.

At the very least, this means we should not re-sign Antawn just because Antawn's an off-court leader.  We should re-sign him only for his on-court production.  Because we have an off-court leader locked up for four more years, and that's become clear in this series.

Game thread is below.  Use it.  -PM

Call him your one to watch. Call him your X-factor. Call him your key to the game. Call him whatever cliché you want, just don't call Caron Butler's glass half empty of Tuff Juice.

He's been through a laundry list of injuries this year: hip, hamstring, ankle, wrist, knee, Mountain Dew stomach and plastic straw mouth.....it doesn't matter, Caron Butler just keeps on keeping on.

Gilbert, DeShawn, and LeBron have provided plenty of distractions. Good. Caron will be just fine flying under the radar like his fellow Big 3er, Antawn Jamison.

The Pradamaster is more than right to say that work on the glass will dictate the series. But for the Washington Wizards in game one, the play of Caron Butler will set the tone, especially with Agent Zero coming off the bench.

As much as Butler has improved his 3-point shooting this year (increasing his previous career percentage by 5.5% and knocking down almost 47% of his previous career total), his nose for the ball has gone Pinocchio (remember Caron being all over the court in the 4th quarter of the game 36 win in Boston?).

Just like Arenas, Butler missed last year's playoffs and he is as thirsty as anyone.

How far will Caron go to get it? All the way from the streets of Racine to the NBA Playoffs.

 

As we get ready for the playoffs, it never hurts to remind ourselves who we have on the team.  It gives us a chance to look back to the regular season and evaluate the roster, plus it helps anyone hopping on our bandwagon an opportunity to get a quick recap of each player.

Each player's recap will have the same number of words as their jersey numbers.  Obviously this makes one player's recap impossible, but I think this wallpaper makes up for it.

#0 Gilbert Arenas - ...

#1 Nick Young - Raw.

#2 DeShawn Stevenson - Good defender.

#3 Caron Butler - Can't be stopped.

#4 Antawn Jamison - Consistent twenty and ten.

#5 Dominic McGuire - Does things well, except scoring.

#6 Antonio Daniels - Good passing disguises his flat shot.

#8 Roger Mason - What J.J. Redick wishes he could be like.

#9 Darius Songaila - Excellent low post passer. Won't win a dunk contest.

#14 Oleksiy Pecherov - The Ukranian import has a striking resemblance to Stewie, likes to shoot a lot.

#32 Andray Blatche - The Wizznutzz put it best when they said that Andray "couldnt be more skinny and bipolar if he was 6 OClock." Hopefully the lanky shotblocker can hold down the fort against Cleveland.

#33 Brendan Haywood - The center unaffectionately known as Brenda up until this season has come into his own this season, anchoring a slightly improved defense with his shot blocking and his ability to clear space rebounding.

#36 Etan Thomas -
The poet has been out all the season
But it's for an understandable reason
The sternum is healing
His dreads look appealing
He might not be playing
But his big ol' contract is still paying

You can question his shot selection from time to time, you can question whether or not he should call people overrated, you can question his beard growing skills, and you can even question his 80's themed parties, but don't question his desire to play.  Just check out this report from Mike Jones (who!) before the Sixers game on Saturday:

After all that he goes out and puts up 19 points, 7 assists, and 4 rebounds in the biggest game of the season (to date).  Hopefully those padded spandex shorts are stretchy enough to fit his XL-sized cojones.  Also, can we get some of those rigged up for the rest of the team?  If it works for DeShawn, why not everyone else?

Related: Check out hotplate's diary on DeShawn Stevenson.

In the excitement that surrounded Ivan's shout out to Bullets Forever a week or so back, we never really took the time to appreciate what else he had to say after he mentioned us. Let's take a look back at the quote:

Since we're the only ones that can truly appreciate this fact, let's go about doing it.  I think we can all agree that Jamison has been the Wizards' MVP this season, whether it's been making key tip shots, or getting hot at the absolutely best time. Antawn has been the one constant in a season full of variables.  He's currently leading the NBA with the largest net impact on team scoring and rebounding this season.  Simply put, the Wizards would not be where they are right now without Antawn (and probably Caron too, I heard he's pretty good).

But how does his 20/10 season stack up with the other Bullet/Wizards to accomplish the feat?  Let's use the always handy tables:

	PPG	RPG
Webber	20.1	10.3
Hayes*	23.7	12.5
Bellamy*	27.9	16.4
Malone*	24.1	11.3
Johnson	20.7	11.7
Ruland	22.2	12.3
Ellison	20.0	11.2
Jamison	21.5	10.2

* - For players with multiple 20/10 seasons, their PPG and RPG from their best season was taken.  This will apply to every table in the post.

As you can see, Jamison stats are nice, but most of the players on the list had better averages. The thing is, when you look at the averages, you have to also account for the pace at which the teams played.  A team that plays at a faster pace is going to have more field goal attempts which leads to more scoring and rebounding opportunities, so let's take a look at table #2 that lists the pace factor for each player's team.

	Pace Factor
Webber	92.4
Hayes	105.9
Bellamy	Not available
Malone	100.2
Johnson	Not available
Ruland	97.4
Ellison	97.7
Jamison	89.5

Suddenly, Jamison's numbers look a lot more impressive.  I'm not mathematical enough to extrapolate those numbers to show what each player's numbers would look like if they all played at the same pace, but I'm willing to wager that the gap between Jamison and some of the other players on the list would narrow significantly.  I'm almost positive that with an extra 16.4 possessions that Antawn could put up the extra 2.2 points and 2.3 rebounds per game necessary to have the same numbers as Elvin Hayes, who arguably has the second best numbers on the list.  Bellamy's pace factor was unavailable, but I think it's safe to venture that if it was available it would likely be even faster than that of Hayes, which would make it more likely that Jamison's numbers are closer to Walt's than it would seem.  I feel pretty safe in guessing that Bellamy played at the fastest pace of everyone on the list because as you've probably noticed by looking at the table, the pace of basketball has been in a steady decline for quite some time.  Just take a look back 25 years, the 97.4 pace factor of  Jeff Ruland's '83-'84 Bullets (fourth slowest in the NBA that year) would be good enough for the second fastest pace in the NBA this season, better than both the Suns and the Warriors.

Even if you take away the pace factor and all the other fancy statistics, there's one thing that makes Jamison's 20/10 year extraordinary.  Compare the height and age of the players on the list and tell me which one would be picked as the least likely to be a double digit rebounder.

	Age	Height
Webber	23	6-9
Hayes	31	6-9
Bellamy	24	6-11
Malone	31	6-10
Johnson	28	6-6
Ruland	25	6-10
Ellison	24	6-9
Jamison	31	6-8

If you're torn between Johnson and Jamison, keep in mind that while Gus Johnson was only 6-6, he played at a time where the league was much shorter on average.  It's also worth mentioning that he had lots of freaky athleticism to compensate for any lack of height he had .  On the other hand, Jamison plays in a league where 6-8 is considered by most to be undersized for a PF and while you certainly can't classify Jamison as a stiff, he's nowhere near the leaper that Gus Johnson was.

Averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds for an entire season is nothing short of phenomenal.  When you factor in when Antawn is doing this, not only regarding where the NBA is at in terms of pace, but also where Jamison is at in his career, it makes his accomplishment this season that much more impressive.

Hopefully I'm not the only one that appreciates it.

Remember when we all thought that trading JCN for a draft pick we won't see until 2016 was a bad move?

We were all wrong.  In Ernie We Trust.

(Hat tip to kdp922)

As all college students probably know, "midterm" isn't necessarily synonymous with the exact "middle of the season/semester."  With that in mind, since we've reached a convenient stopping point in the NBA schedule, let's discuss the performances of the key players on the teams.  Next up: Brendan Haywood.

First instinct: One of the league's most improved players, partly because of his own improvement, and partly because of the fact that he's consistently playing 30 minutes a game.  Still a solid defensive presence, but now with a much-improved offensive game.  Admittedly, I've always been a Haywood fan, because criticisms of his game stem from its awkwardness rather than its effectiveness, but I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say he's one of the East's best centers.

A deeper look: Haywood's offensive improvement has been truly stunning, considering he's already 28 years old.  

Here are some notable numbers for Haywood this year.  All data is from Basketball Reference, 82 Games, and Knickerblogger.  I'm including career stats to prove a point.

I mean, look at that.  The one thing that jumps out to me is the free throw percentage.  How many players improve by that much over the course of one season?  That's the major reason his true shooting percentage is high -- he's getting to the line at a similar frequency, but he's converting far more often.  The other key is that his turnover rate has gone way down as his usage has increased.  That's very significant, because turnovers were a huge problem for Haywood last year.

Defensively, he hasn't had quite the impact as before, but I think that's because the rest of the team has improved on that end.  In particular, it's nice to have Andray Blatche as the second team center instead of Etan Thomas.  

One criticism lofted Haywood's way is his inconsistent rebounding, but let me be the first to call bullshit on that.  Haywood does an excellent job of clearing space for others to get the board, and his 9.9 rebounds/36 isn't too shabby.  The Wizards are grabbing a much higher percentage of rebounds with Haywood on the floor than without him, and the impact is basically the same on both offensive and defensive rebounds.  I mean, really, can't we put this criticism to rest?

There are two major concerns, however, for Haywood going forward.  The first is the potential return for Etan Thomas, because it could very easily mean fewer minutes for Haywood.  That's Eddie Jordan's history, and it's reared it's ugly head in recent losses to the Sixers and Warriors.  Less Haywood would be a huge mistake, because he's been so productive this year, and less Haywood in favor of  Thomas would be even worse, since Thomas has such an adverse effect on the defense.

The bigger concern, however, is one nobody's been discussing, and that's what happens to Haywood when Arenas gets back.  Last year, there was no better example of someone affected by Arenas' supposed "ball-hoggery" than Haywood.  He averaged his fewest field goal attempts per 36 minutes since his second season, and his usage rate was well below his career average.  The main reason it didn't look like he was doing much offensively was that he wasn't getting the ball enough.  This year, without Arenas, he's getting the ball more than ever, and it's no coincidence that the increased usage has resulted in a career year.  I'm a little annoyed whenever I hear about how Arenas needs to integrate into a team setting, but there's no doubt that he needs to do a better job of feeding his big man.  The situation is very similar to the Chicago Bulls in the early 90s, when Michael Jordan had to learn how to give his awkward-but-effective big man, Bill Cartwright, a lot of touches underneath.  Jordan figured it out, now Arenas needs to do the same.

Jake's thoughts: Brendan's path to improvement this season has to be one of the weirdest recipes for improvement that I've ever seen. All the Wizards had to do was hire a shooting coach and remove his source of belittlement (yes, it's a word) and BAM! he's a double-double threat. Now I can't help but think how many more big men over the last decade this could've helped. Imagine, if the Wizards had just hired Dave Hopla 7 years ago and managed to convince Michael Jordan to stay retired, Kwame Brown might be the most dominant center in the NBA right now.

Your thoughts: Comments section.  Hopefully, Haywood breeds more discussion than Butler and Jamison have.

Previous evaluations:
Antawn Jamison.
Caron Butler.

As all college students probably know, "midterm" isn't necessarily synonymous with the exact "middle of the season/semester."  With that in mind, since we've reached a convenient stopping point in the NBA schedule, let's discuss the performances of the key players on the teams.  Next up: Caron Butler.

First instinct: The absolute MVP of the team.  After rigorously working out to reshape his body this summer, he's reaped the benefits, somehow increasing his scoring efficiency from last season.  He's growing into his role as an offensive facilitator, and while he could stand to go to the free throw line more, suffice to say, he's the franchise's one untouchable at this point (despite what Sam Smith might say).  

A deeper look: No doubt Butler's been great this year, but there have been a couple somewhat disturbing signs that developed even before his hip injury.  Mind you, these aren't terrible concerns, but they do put a bit of a damper on what otherwise has been a breakout season.

Here are some notable numbers for Butler this year.  All data is from Basketball Reference, 82 Games, and Knickerblogger.

All that is very good, obviously.  He's scoring more, mostly because he's added a deadly three-point shot to his arsenal.  He isn't rebounding quite as much, but he's dishing more, and I don't think that assist number does justice to his improved passing skills.  He creates many openings for his teammates that don't necessarily show up in assist totals, which is the real sign of a player becoming a true focal point offensively.  Most importantly, though, he's solidified his reputation as a wing player who can score efficiently even as his bread and butter move is a 15-20 foot jump shot.  People like that are so rare, because statistically, the one shot with the lowest payoff is the mid-range jumper, seeing as it's far from the basket, but not far enough to be worth the extra point.

But as the old cliche goes, if you live by the jump shot, you die by the jump shot.  As opponents have keyed more on Butler, his efficiency has gone downhill.  Note that the following graph doesn't include the opener against Indiana or the two games Butler played this month.

Butler was absolutely smoking through the first month of the season, with a true shooting percentage above 63.  There were games like this one where he simply wouldn't miss.  But in retrospect, it seems that one of the major reasons for his hot start had to do with the unfamiliarity factor.  Defenses just weren't used to him shooting threes, so they played him to drive and got burned.  

But as December and January rolled around, teams caught on.  In November, Butler was hitting 54 percent of his three-pointers, but that number fell to 31 and 30 percent in the subsequent months.  Not so terrible, considering he never had a three-point shot before this year, but still not very good.  He was still hitting a lot of mid-range jumpers, but not nearly as many as before.  

You would think that Butler would adjust by taking the ball to the basket, like I've implored so many times on here, but he's still learning there.  It's very encouraging to see his true shooting percentage improve in January, because it accounts for free throws attempted, but he's still only averaging 4.6 per game this year, down from 5.2 a game last year.  As always, it varies game by game.  He'll have games like the Houston loss where he will not even try, but he'll also have games like the second Boston one where he is actively trying to get to the rim.  Still, the fact that his free throws attempted are down, even as his usage is up, isn't a great sign.

What does that really tell you?  Butler is a great second option, but to be a prime number one guy, he needs to shoot more free throws.  In a way, that's a good thing, because his game meshes well with the drive-at-all-costs Arenas.  But without Arenas, it becomes a problem.  Not a large one, mind you, because Butler is having a career year even with his downhill shooting trend, but a problem nonetheless.

Jake's thoughts: In Hollinger's now semi-infamous 33 win prediction he anticipated a drop off from Caron to be one of the culprits in the decline since he was coming off a career year in '06-'07. Of course, I disagreed that with Hollinger's final conclusion that Caron would fall off to the point where they'd only win 33 games but I though that he'd more or less reached his ceiling as a player. Sure, there might be some minor improvements in his game, but not anything that would raise his player level any higher than it already was.

Then again, I also had Mavs beating the Bulls in the NBA Finals which just goes to show I shouldn't make predictions ever. Caron's improvement is more than anyone could have anticipated or asked for. Let's just hope that the All-Star break has done him some good in getting rested because the Wizards are going to need a lot of (healthy) Tuff Juice over the final stretch of the season.

Your thoughts: Comments section.  Go.

Every team has those little quirks that are special to them and their fans.  It might be something that you can't notice unless you've followed the team for years, or it might be something that can be observed after only one viewing but can't be truly appreciated until you've really gotten a chance to watch it over an extended time.  For Wizards' fans, the quirk is Antawn Jamison's shot.  For me personally, there's always a rush of excitement when Jamison gets the ball in the low post because you never know what's going to happen.  Is he going for the scoop?  Will he try the leaner?  The ol' teardrop?  There's categories that you can classify his shots into, but he's not like Tim Duncan where you know whatever shot he ends up choosing will go through the same textbook process every single time.  With Jamison, every part of the shot is a variable subject to change depending on the situation: The release point, arm extension, deciding whether or not to draw a foul as he shoots, the arc of the ball, and whether he uses glass or not.  It's all up for grabs.  His shots are like snowflakes, you'll never find two that are the exactly the same.

I think Wizznutzz put it best when they said this:

It's not just the shots that make him interesting to watch.  He has a thing for weird celebrations after big plays.  It's not something that you'd expect for someone that is universally considered a consummate professional, but he just has a thing for weird celebratory faces.  It might not always reach Soulja Boy proportions, but if you look for it, you'll always find him doing some goofy when something big happens.  Whenever it happens, I call it Carolina Face because Vince Carter and Brendan Haywood (both UNC alums, like Jamison) seem to react the same way.  Sometimes you can see it in Rasheed Wallace too, but normally he's in a category all to himself.

I bring this all up because over the last month or so I've been on a little project to try and document all of the crazy shots and his weird celebrations of this 30 something and bring it together into one place.  Coming off his All Star appearance last night, now seemed like as good of a time as any to debut it, so without further ado here's Antawn Jamison doing what he does best:

As all college students probably know, "midterm" isn't necessarily synonymous with the exact "middle of the season/semester."  With that in mind, since we've reached a convenient stopping point in the NBA schedule, let's discuss the performances of the key players on the teams.  First up: Antawn Jamison.

First instinct: Antawn has been a rock all season, and well-deserving of his all-star selection.  He's been a tremendous leader, both by example and through words.  Whereas in the past he spent a lot of time hanging around the perimeter and passively playing defense, this year, he's getting to the glass more, scoring inside, and showing a renewed commitment to the defensive end.  Sure, he'll never be confused with a bruising power forward, but in a contract year, he's reverted back to being more of an inside guy.

A deeper look: All that's written above is true, though it's come at a cost to his shooting efficiency.  Granted, he's become much less efficient since Caron Butler got hurt, so that might explain things.  Still, it's clear Jamison has become a more rugged player.

Here are some notable numbers for Jamison this year.  All data is from Basketball Reference, 82 Games, and Knickerblogger.

Jamison is shooting less efficiently from the field, but is still improving because he's contributing more in other areas.  In particular, his rebounding is much improved.  His rebound rate is the highest of his career, which surprised me only because he's always had this reputation as a "20/10" guy.  The lowering shooting percentages don't worry me too much, because without Butler, he's the only guy who can create his own shot, which puts a really unfair burden on his shoulders.  I haven't broken the numbers down further, but my guess is that his efficiency has gone way downhill in these last eight games, just as his usage has increased.  With everyone totally healthy, I see his percentages rising as his usage slides.  

So offensively, he's a different player, but I think that's partly by necessity.  But what about his defense?  Here, I'm absolutely stunned by his transformation.  No, Jamison has not become an elite defender, or even an average one, but he's hardly a liability anymore.  

Consider this: Last year, the Wizards had a defensive efficiency of 113.1 when Jamison was on the floor last year.  That would have made the Wizards the third-worst defensive team in the league last year if he played all 48 minutes (they were anyway, but that's besides the point).  This year, however, the Wizards are surrendering only 107.7 points per 100 possessions with Jamison out there, which would place them 14th in the league if Jamison played every minute.  That's an improvement of 5.5 points/100 possessions and 14 places in the rankings.

But what about his individual defense?  Here, it's harder to get a real picture, but last year, opposing power forwards had a PER of 18 against Jamison last year, whereas they only have a PER of 16.5 this year.  Counterpart data like this is misleading because of the number of switches that occur on every defensive possession, but it still shows in some way that Jamison's defense is much-improved.

Most importantly, Jamison himself recognizes that his defense was subpar last year, based on this quote.

The last part of the quote makes me worried that things will change once Arenas gets back, but it's striking to see a 11-year veteran in a contract year admitting to a serious flaw in his game.  That, more than anything, tells the story of Jamison's season this year.  Anyone who tells me he isn't an all-star isn't paying attention.

Jake's thoughts: Maybe it's just the pessimist in me, but every time I see his crazy rebounding stats I can't help but see the dollar signs. I'm not trying to suggest that he's just playing for a contract this season, I think Jamison has proven that he's not some kind of guy that only shows up for contract years, but I think when you couple that with his age and I don't see him having another year quite this good after this one.

With that pessimism aside, Jamison is still a tremendous player and he deserves whatever money he gets this off-season (barring a bizarre Rashard Lewis-like deal). Hopefully, Grunfeld has seenw what we've all seen this season and does what it takes to keep him this summer.

Your thoughts: Post away in the comment section.