I love thought exercises more than most. Impassioned debates about theoretical premises can never truly be settled, but they also encourage a completeness of thought difficult to sustain in normal conversation. I've been thinking about prospects myself as 2012 approaches (fans of cellar-dwelling teams can't help it), and have come to the conclusion it is largely a waste of time.

The Wizards as a team have as much or more upside than any other team in the NBA to go with the first dose of stability the franchise has enjoyed since Gilbert Arenas tore his meniscus. Flip Saunders knows who his guys are, to an extent, and Ernie is finished with his machinations for now. A compressed season means a hectic schedule means a deep rotation, or else. These conditions are ideal for growth and we're going to find out quickly who's ready to sink or swim.

Until that happens, we don't really know what needs we have. And counter to most perceptions about 2012 free agency, there aren't as many clear upgrades as you might think.

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There's a reason only 10 restricted free agents (12 now if you include Spencer Hawes and Marco Belinelli) have signed the qualifying offer since 1999. There's a reason that a solution that ostensibly is a win-win for both sides has been enacted less than one time per season. It's because it's a last resort when neither the team or player gets what it desires.

All of that holds true with the Nick Young situation. Young reportedly wanted a long-term extension that was more than the four-year, $33 million deal Marcus Thornton received from the Sacramento Kings. The Wizards wanted to keep him here, but not at that price. In the end, both settled for something they didn't want, and neither is going to be incredibly thrilled by it.

No, Young won't go out and actively sabotage the team during games to get his shots. No, the Wizards' entire rebuilding strategy won't have to be abandoned. But you can bet that Young will have his contract situation on his mind when he's not in the flow of an actual game, and you can bet that the Wizards now need to envision an alternate future without one of their top players currently on the roster in the picture. That's why this is a lose-lose.

And yet, I still think the Wizards did the right thing.

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With the NBA season starting in a week, Nick Young has decided to sign the one-year, $3.7 million qualifying offer, according to Michael Lee. From the sounds of it, the market simply wasn't there for Young.

Young is coming off a career year with the Wizards, finishing as the team’s leading scorer at 17.4 points per game, but found a rushed free agent market that was unfavorable to players at his position. Most teams around the league anticipated the Wizards would match any offer for Young and few had the resources to give him a lucrative offer sheet.

That's enough of a resolution for one year, but it raises significant questions about Young's future with the Wizards. As I noted before, the qualifying offer historically has essentially meant a player's divorce from his team is simply delayed by one year. Ten players have signed the qualifying offer since 1999, and all 10 were not with the same team at the beginning of the next season. The qualifying offer is a last resort when the player doesn't get the long-term deal he desires from his current team, so it only makes sense that he would want to move on when he is a free agent again.

Perhaps the truncated year of free agency in 2011 changes that trend, but for Wizards fans hoping for Young to be here long term, this is not a good sign.

The problem with paying a player based on what you think they'll do is, by necessity, buying a product sight unseen. You hope there's been enough consistency that you can feel good about your purchase, that you aren't offering a big contract to a player who will up and vanish, while you still have to send the Brinks truck by every pay period. But at the same time, this is a league where Kwame Brown gets paid $7 million on a one year deal. If the Warriors are willing to put out a $43 million offer sheet to Deandre Jordan this year, does anyone think Golden State won't apply the whiteout and write in JaVale McGee next year? In any case, as Craig Stouffer said, the market is set.

There are several factors coming into play that combine to form an interesting question about JaVale McGee's future in Washington.

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The Washington Wizards will be bringing back Maurice Evans on a one-year contract, according to multiple reports. Craig Stouffer of the Washington Examiner was the first person I spotted who actually wrote something on the move, while Michael Lee of the Washington Post reports the deal was for the veteran's minimum.

Evans was just a throw-in piece in the trade involving Kirk Hinrich and Jordan Crawford last February, but actually retained a bit of value, playing 27.4 minutes a game and averaging nearly 10 points a contest. On the court, he still wasn't especially productive, but at least he was good enough to be an eighth or ninth man. His real value to the Wizards, though, is off the court, where he seemed to emerge as a veteran leader in the Wizards' eyes.

The Wizards' roster is now at 18 players, including training camp invites Mardy Collins, Aaron Pettway and Mike Wilks. As Stouffer points out, though, there's still room for Nick Young if he re-signs because Larry Owens' contract is non-guaranteed.

More from media day in a bit - kind of a crazy day in general. But first, in a piece of news that is not especially surprising, Josh Howard will not be with the Wizards next season, as he has signed with the Utah Jazz, according to ESPN's Chris Broussard. Michael Lee has confirmed the report, and Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor said in a radio interview that Howard will be on a one-year deal.

Howard's departure from Washington isn't a surprise. The Wizards liked him and believed he really did turn around his reputation, but they're also in a youth movement and just drafted two guys who play his position. Howard played in just 18 games recovering from knee surgery, which meant he couldn't demonstrate the on-court leadership the Wizards really hoped he could.

Fare thee well, Josh. Even if the Wizards are not currently your employer, I hope you can succeed in Utah.

Flip Saunders was on "The Sports Junkies" on 106.7 The Fan this morning for a brief appearance, and in it, he discussed the status of restricted free agent Nick Young. As each day passes, more questions arise about his future with the team. In light of that, I was surprised to hear Saunders so talkative about Young's status.

Saunders did say that Ernie Grunfeld is "still talking" to Young's representatives about a long-term deal, but he followed that up by saying that, "as in most negotiations," the two sides are apart as far as the terms of a new deal. Then, Saunders said this:

"With Nick's situation, what's happened is a lot of the money right now is drying up in some places. I think he's kind of waiting to see if something does happen. There's always trades and seeing if anything pans out with some of those other trades and see where everything falls into place."

I'm guessing there was a reason Saunders put it that way.

To listen to the full interview, click here.

With all the noise about Nick Young potentially signing the qualifying offer to stay with the Wizards and become an unrestricted free agent next season, I feel the need to point out that if that's what ends up happening, it probably means this will be his last year in D.C. Michael Lee listed the 10 players who signed the qualifying offer since the new CBA started in 1999.

Ben Gordon, Raymond Felton, Michael Olowokandi, Stromile Swift, Robert Swift, Mickael Pietrus, Melvin Ely, Vladimir Radmanovic and Rasho Nesterovic are the other players who decided to sign qualifying offers to become unrestricted free agents a year later.

All 10 of those guys saw the writing on the wall: the qualifying offer means the team probably doesn't really want the player long-term. All 10 left the next season. Here's a breakdown of what happened with them.

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