This is the part 4b of a four part series assessing the future of the Washington Wizards. Part 4a focused on free agent big men and a trade possibility for Blazer big man, Joel Pryzbilla (our SB Nation colleague from BlazersEdge has since stopped by and nixed the deal......and probably rightfully so).

A couple of readers expressed that a greater need is for a wing man/guard....someone who can serve as a backup for Caron Butler. I agree, and that's one of the reasons I listed a lock-down perimeter defender as need #1 in part 3 of the series. Earlier parts were hosted on Truth About It Dot Net and you will find those links below.

The Washington Wizards Future
Part I: The Situation Room, Part II: The Assumptions, Part III: Needful Things

Like last time, I'm going to list select statistical ratings which are most in tune with team needs. Each player will be rated using True Shooting Percentage (TS%) from KnickerBlogger.net. I'm also going to use the John Hollinger numbers of Rebound Rate (Reb-R) for obvious reasons, Assist Rate (Ast-R) because passing skills are always wanted, and the famed PER as a general evaluation. Finally, I'm adding each player's 3-point percentage for their career.

Tony Allen

(Restricted, Boston Celtics) 6-4, 213, 26 years

TS% - 52.7
3P % - .316
Reb-R - 7.3
Ast-R - 16.5
PER - 10.83

I’ll always remember Tony Allen for blowing out his knee while going for a dunk well after the whistle blew.

• Plus: Allen is a slashing athletic monster who uses his ability to create turnovers. His on-ball D is solid when he is not gambling. He has the strength to hit the boards on both ends. Allen seems like a "slasher"….meaning I've seen his ability to get to the FT line.
• Minus: D'oh….can't shoot….can't dribble…turnover city. This year's FG% was by far the worst of his 4-year career. And the Wizards definitely don't need another guy with a history of knee injuries and guns.

Mickaël Piétrus

(Unrestricted, Golden State Warriors) 6-6, 215, 26 years

TS% - 54.9
3P % - .353
Reb-R - 9.8
Ast-R - 9.3
PER - 12.88

Piétrus has always been an intriguing player, but hasn't lived up to his potential as a former 11th overall pick in 2003…..and hasn't turned out much better than the guy picked right before him, Jarvis Hayes.

• Plus: Lengthy athleticism…sounds good to me as he uses that to defend (steals, blocks, boards). Pietrus can also shoot from the outside, making 1 trey a game, attempting 2.8 per. Hollinger says that he likes to shoot from the corners attempting 82.6% of his threes from those spots (of course, that was in 06-07)....but I think that attracting defensive attention to the corners would really help drivers like Arenas and Young.
• Minus: Can't guard guys bigger than him and is less than adequate at ball handling (passing and dribbling). He was in the Warriors 8-man rotation this past season, but didn't show as much improvement as hoped for (especially in a contract year…Piétrus signed a 1-year $3.47 million qualifier last year). His PER actually went down as offense was a struggle in 07-08.

Kirk Snyder

(Restricted, Minnesota Timberwolves) 6-6, 225, 24 years

TS% - 57.3
3P % - .327
Reb-R - 9.6
Ast-R - 18.6
PER - 13.50

From his days with Nevada making Sweet 16 runs in the NCAA tournament, Snyder seemed like an all around baller.

• Plus: Can play defense against multiple positions, In 27 games with Minnesota, he showed his best rebounding and passing skills averaging 4.2 and 2.1. He has the ability to get high% shots.
• Minus: Won't extend the floor with long distance shooting, Doesn't seem to have the quick and hustling D to get many steals, Not an ideal replacement for Roger Mason.

Devin Brown

(Unrestricted, Cleveland Cavaliers) 6-5, 220, 30 in December

TS% - 49.4
3P % - .341
Reb-R - 8.5
Ast-R - 20.2
PER - 11.45

I used to love watching this guy with the Spurs in 04-05 when he was averaging 7.4, 2.7 boards and 37% from three. He balled with the Hornets in 06-07 before signing with Cleveland for a year….but that was also when New Orleans was depleted by injuries leading to signing Brown in mid-season and garbage time minutes.

• Plus: Rebounds well as he is the same height as Roger Mason, but bulkier; Hits the trey ball; Before the season, our friend Hollinger compared Brown to Ledell Eackles….normally I'd say this is a good sign….but that might fall under the Hollinger Jinx: not sure if the comparison is to the good or bad side of Eackles….whatever it may be, Grunfeld needs to do the opposite.
• Minus: Defense is not a strong point….he's never seemed quick. Our need is for more of a stopper.

Keith Bogans

(Unrestricted, Orlando Magic) 6-5, 215, 26 (tomorrow, May 12)

TS% - 55.9
3P % - .353
Reb-R -  7.0
Ast-R -  13.1
PER -  10.99

I've seen Bogans play in person many times as he starred at DC area's DeMatha High and went on to play at the University of Kentucky. He's always struck me as a utility player.....does a lot of things well, but nothing great. He holds a player option on $2.55 million for next year.

Bogans' teammate, Keyon Dooling is also an interesting prospect. Dooling is smaller, a better mid-range shooter, a better distributor, and quicker than Bogans. However, Dooling can be a gunner and I'd rather have the strength and rebounding of Bogans.

• Plus: He's got size to defend three positions; His 3-point shooting has improved as he got the green light to shoot more this season (averaging 5.0 attempts per game (a career high by 1.9), and 1.8 makes (a career high by 0.8).
• Minus: Scouting reports say that his arms aren't very long; His time in Orlando has been spotty as he's received fair chances to solidify himself in the lineup, but played less as the season progressed (averaging over 32 minutes per game the first two months of the season, and less than 24 minutes the final four months). Bogans has averaged 7.0 points and 29 minutes in the playoffs so far.
  

Quentin Ross

(Unrestricted, LA Clippers) 6-6, 193, 27 years

TS% - 43.0
3P % - .286
Reb-R - 6.6
Ast-R - 18.4
PER - 7.72

He's been billed as a defensive stopper, so you know I wouldn't mind him on the team…Ross might be a desperate BAE gamble ($1.91 million).

• Plus: Mid-range game, Decent rebounder for thin frame, Bothersome defender.
• Minus: The knock on his game going into 07-08 was lack of offense, and his stats got worse. He's a bad FT shooter. Seems like the Michael Ruffin of guards.

Chris Duhon

(Unrestricted, Chicago Bulls ) 6-1, 185, 26 in August

TS% - 50.8
3P % - .356
Reb-R - 4.4
Ast-R - 36.9
PER - 11.28  

Would I want this guy over Roger Mason?

• Yes: He's a comparable 3-point shooter, better ball handling and passing skills, better defender than MaseOn.
• No: Not as good a scorer as Mason, Duhon is 4 inches shorter, Duhon went to Duke and he is not from Washington, DC.

And evidently, Duhon is known for partying….not sure on whether that's a 'yes' or a 'no'.

Trevor Ariza

(Player Option, LA Lakers) 6-8, 210, 23 in June

TS% - 56.8
3P % - .209
Reb-R - 11.0
Ast-R - 18.6
PER - 16.18  

I'm with Prada here….well, I wouldn't call Ariza a personal favorite, but I do like the guy's game. Ariza can board, run the floor and is a great, quick defender. Unfortunately, he can't shoot, can't really drive, and his FT shooting is crap. That being said, I'm not sure how much Ariza would give us over Dominic McGuire and why we would want to pay him a ton to do that….as I don't exactly see him declining $3.1 million to play with the Lakers next year.

Royal Ivey

(Unrestricted, Milwaukee Bucks) 6-4, 215, 26 years

TS% -  48.7
3P % - .331
Reb-R -  4.8
Ast-R -  24.1
PER -  8.96

• Plus: Ivey has decent size and can push the ball in transition. I remember him being able to penetrate and distribute into the Wizards zone this season. Defense is Ivey's strong point.
• Minus: He's not the worst three point shooter, but he doesn't take many...making only 35 on the year.

Even though Hollinger compares Ivey to LaBradford Smith in being most similar at age, I'd rather him be a last ditch option. I'd like to have him as a defender, but his youth, inexperience at the point and lack of perimeter game would keep him at the end of the bench.

Yakhouba Diawara

(Restricted, Denver Nuggets) 6-7, 225, 26 in August

TS% - 51.8
3P % - .297
Reb-R - 6.2
Ast-R - 18.4
PER - 8.25

Defensive stopper? Maybe…that's what "they" say. But Diawara leaves a lot to be desired on offense…..a lot. He's more of a training camp invitee than a free agent signee. In fact, I'm not even sure why he's on this list.

Others? C.J. Miles, Jazz (too young), Kevin Ollie, 76ers (too old), Maurice Evans, Magic (I think Orlando would rather keep Evans than Bogans), Tyronn Lue, Mavericks (too small), James Posey, Celtics (I'm betting he takes his $3.462 million player option for next year).

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Final Thoughts

Guys like Pietrus and Bogans stand out to me. They are decent defenders, have some size, a touch of shooting ability, and they can help the team on the boards (something the Wizards need more of at the backup wing position).

If you have Gilbert Arenas and his renewed distribution capabilities along with Antonio Daniels at the point, and Stevenson and Nick Young at the 2 spot, then an addition with the ability to play the 3-spot might fit in very well with this team.

This is part four of a four part series assessing the future of the Washington Wizards. Parts 1-3 were hosted on Truth About It and covered the current player personnel situation, the free agency of Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison, and what type of player addition the Wizards need for improvement.

1. Washington Wizards Future Part I: The Situation Room
2. Washington Wizards Future Part II: The Assumptions
3. Washington Wizards Future Part III: Needful Things

This final installment will focus on the available market and will actually be divided into three parts: A) Big man free agents and a trade speculation, B) Free agent guards/small forwards, and C) Rookie and overseas players to watch.

In the Eddie Jordan offense, it would help if a player could shoot….I'm talking FTs too. So I’m going to rate each player using True Shooting Percentage (TS%) from KnickerBlogger.net. I'm also going to use the John Hollinger numbers of Rebound Rate (Reb-R) for obvious reasons, Assist Rate (Ast-R) because passing skills are always wanted, and the famed PER as a general evaluation.

Andris Biedrins

(Restricted, Golden State Warriors) 6-11, 245, 22 years

TS% - 51.4
Reb-R - 18.9
Ast-R - 12.3
PER - 15.25

Nope. Jason Richardson is no longer a Warrior because they wanted to have money to keep guys like Biedrins (and Monta Ellis). Andris and his agent, Bill Duffy, have illusions of 5 years and $50 million, similar to those of Anderson Varejao. Five for $40 would be a more realistic value, still too pricey for the Wiz. Varejao ended up having to settle for a 3-year, $17.4 million offer sheet from the Bobcats, trying to save face as he overestimated his value, and the Cavs gladly matched.

Although his free-throw shooting horrendous, Biedrins is still a much better offensive player than Varejao, and his value over the Brazilian Spaz is a fair bit higher. The Warriors have retaining the services of Biedrins high on their list of priorities. Chris Mullin will let the market set the price and match any offer, else Biedrins will sign the 1-year qualifying offer of $3,609,636 so he can be an unrestricted FA after next season.

Kurt Thomas

(Unrestricted, San Antonio Spurs) 6-9, 235, 36 in October

TS% - 51.4
Reb-R - 18.9
Ast-R - 12.3
PER - 15.25

I immediately have these three thoughts….even though I’d love to have Thomas on the Wizards for a year:

1. He's too old, turning 36 before next season starts. (of course, this isn't really a concern as Thomas is still pulling down 6.6 boards, along with 5.0 PPG in 21.9 minutes of action for the Spurs in this year's playoffs)
2. Kurt Thomas wants a championship…..would the Wizards be first on his list to fulfill this need?
3. The most the Wizards could offer him is the MLE, and there might be contenders with better chances willing to offer him that.

Ronny Turiaf

(Restricted, LA Lakers) 6-10, 249, 25 years

TS% - 53.9
Reb-R - 11.6
Ast-R - 18.9
PER -  15.19

Any team would love to have Turiaf's energy. His role has bench hype man also would surely be contagious among this Wizards bunch. Unfortunately, the Lakers love Turiaf for all these reasons as well. Dr. Buss has proven that he doesn't mind being in luxury tax land, so I'd anticipate that the Lakers will match most any offer for Turiaf.

• Plus: He can block shots, getting 1.4 per game in 18.7 minutes, Turiaf uses his natural hustle swag to hit the boards hard, He has the highest assist rate of those on this list by far.
  
• Minus: Not the best shooter, foul prone, lacks lateral quickness.
  

Francisco Elson

(Unrestricted, Seattle Sonics) 7-0, 235, 32 years old

TS% - 41.6
Reb-R - 13.4
Ast-R - 7.4
PER - 6.57

This guy was brought up on the Bullets Forever player suggestions post , looks like the minuses have it won:

• Plus: Long, athletic, can run and block shots.
• Minus: He's older than Antawn Jamison, He's not a rugged rebounder and has a frail frame, Elson's career averages are 3.8 boards in 16.6 minutes, and his single block per 40 minutes this year is not desirable. The Wizard don't need that kind of softy.

Eduardo Najera

(Unrestricted, Denver Nuggets) 6-8, 235, 32 in July

TS% - 57.0
Reb-R - 11.0
Ast-R - 16.9
PER - 12.19

Najera is pretty much the Mexican Darius Songaila. Unlike Darius, he can shoot the trey ball, and he rebounds a little bit better….at least that's what the stats say (Songaila's Reb-R is 10.2). Eduardo definitely has some dirty in him and I would not mind his presence on our team, but I think the Wizards need someone a tad taller and a bit more athletic.

Najera is one of the more intriguing free agents, but I just don't see the Wizards affording him. Eduardo will be looking to make at least $9 million per (Nenê's numbers)….but who knows what the market will dictate. The Nuggets certainly have the free-agency concerns of Iverson, JR Smith, and Anthony Carter as well, so Eduardo may hit the road. Would he walk to a team in the Wizards where he'd have to fight with five other big men for minutes? I doubt it.

DeSagana Diop

(Unrestricted, NJ Nets) 7-0, 280, 26 years

TS% - 53.6
Reb-R - 17.5
Ast-R - 13.0
PER - 12.31

He's coming off a year in which he made $2,146,000. Will he want more? Of course. Does he deserve it? Ehhh….maybe a little, he's young. Does New Jersey want him back? The Nets will worry about re-signing Nenad Krstic first, Stromile Swift is not about to turn down a $6.2 million paycheck (player option), and the Nets also have Sean Williams and Josh Boone in the fold….not much room for DeSagana (then again, the Wizards have Blatche, Songaila, Haywood, and Etan).

Diop is a great defensive player….shot blocking, timing, rebounding, smarts, strength. On the flip side, his offense is nonexistent. But would the Wizards need offense from him? I suppose not. I think Michael Ruffin would be on the team today if he was DeSagana's size (and not 6-8). But is Diop worth the full mid-level exception? That's iffy.

Joel Przybilla

(Not a Free Agent) 7-1, 255, 29 in October

TS% - 61.1
Reb-R - 21.0
Ast-R - 6.3
PER - 12.44

The Pradamaster seems to think the Wiz can get Przy on the cheap. Hmm….interesting. I guess it depends on how much Portland likes Przybilla and if he fits into their future plans. Consider this: Przybilla has 3-years and $20,573,175 left on his contract. Etan Thomas has 2-years and $14,218,700 left. Would the Blazers take Etan and his one less year, along with the Wizards 18th pick, for Joel Przybilla?

Not so fast my friend....two years from now, after the 2009-2010 season, Portland will have to worry about retaining Travis Outlaw, along with Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack and Channing Frye (that's if those three don’t sign extensions after next season). That being said, could the Wiz steal Pryz for Etan and a 2nd rounder, or even that Euro Stash, Vladimir Veremeenko. Ehh…when you think about Etan's heart and that fact that Portland can wait another year before dealing Przybilla, maybe the 18th pick will suffice.

A 1-for-1 on the ESPN NBA Trade Machine worked…but I think it’s using last year's salary information. The Trade Checker on Real GM worked as well.

I won't even get into Przybilla's pluses or minuses because the Wizards undoubtedly could use someone with his height, bulk, rebounding and shot-blocking coming off the bench….even if he is a FT bricker and a clog on offense.

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Final Thoughts

In my opinion, the most reasonable option is DeSagana Diop. However, I have a feeling that he will command most of the MLE, if not all of it. That would leave the Wizards depending on the draft or the meager bi-annual exception to get someone to fill Roger Mason's role.

What do I want to happen? Joel Przybilla and the MLE for a perimeter defensive stopper doesn't sound like the worst idea in the world.

As a general note, posting is going to be a bit light today and tomorrow because I have Finals, and I imagine Jake does as well (though I might be wrong about that).  Each day, I'll try to come up with a question for discussion to mitigate the lack of heavy posting. 

Today's question is as follows.

Considering our salary-cap situation, our best chance to get someone in free agency would be to use our mid-level exception, which amount to somewhere between 5-6 million dollars annually.  I haven't crunched our salary number to know exactly how much of that we have to spend this year, so let's assume we can use it all.

Now, assume every player on every other team in the league would suddenly become a free agent, allowing us theoretically to sign anyone we wanted with that money.  Obviously, most of the best players in the league would never sign for that little, so we can throw those players out of the discussion.  Of the players in the league who either make mid-level money or less, or who would conceivably be worth mid-level money next year (because they're getting older, or they're improving from being a fringe player), who would help the Wizards the most? 

For the purpose of this exercise, I'm asking you guys to list one player only.  If you think he will sign for less than the full mid-level exception, that's fine, but list just one player.

Have at it!

[UPDATE] A couple clarifications.  First, players on rookie contracts count, but again, give a compelling reason why they're worth mid-level money or less.  Second, unless you note otherwise, assume that our main core (Big 3, all others under contract) would still remain.  Finally, I'll post all the answers tomorrow and decide which one I personally like best.

John N. Mitchell reports (and scoops Ivan Carter in the process).

This shouldn't be much of a surprise, considering the Rocky Mountain News report from three weeks ago, where Wilks said the Wizards had expressed interest in him.  Like VG stated, I'm glad we got a point guard who at least plays like AD, instead of getting a combo-guard type like Donnell Taylor.  

Truthfully, for our price range, Wilks probably fit best, so that's a good thing.

It was nice knowing you, Donnell Taylor, but I don't think any of us are surprised to see you go.

Tony Massenberg is also gone as well, meaning he won't break the record of playing for the most teams in NBA history.

As for Donnell, Ivan Carter sez he'll miss him.

Oh well.  At least we'll always have this.

Roger Mason, current and future teammate of Antonio Daniels.
(Noah Graham-NBAE via Getty Images)

Taking a short break from ADAW to tell everyone that FOX Sports is reporting that the Wizards have re-signed Roger Mason to a one year deal.  Not much of a shock after Calvin Booth and Michael Ruffin signed elsewhere.  Feel free to express your thoughts in the comments.

UPDATE: Agent Steinz has an entry up about Mason re-signing where he calls him the "friendliest professional athlete I have ever covered, in any sport."

Michael Ruffin is off to Milwaukee.  So make sure to circle any games that involve the Bucks and the Hornets (Mo Pete's new team) to see if lightning strikes twice.

Who will be the last 1? Furthermore, why are they stealing Nick Mature Young's jersey?

As the season grows closer every day, it appears more and more evident that there won't be any more roster shakeups before the end of the season. If that indeed does hold true and Ernie Grunfeld doesn't make a move out of left field that no one sees coming, then it looks like the final roster spot will be a battle between Roger Mason and Calvin Booth. As the fight ensues, let's take a look at the options and the pros and cons with each decision.

Continue reading this post »

(If you understand the title reference, you are unquestionably the bomb.)

Well, it looks like any chance to further upgrade the bench is gone.  Ruben Patterson signed a deal with the Clippers last night taking him off the market.  No word on what the terms of the deal were, apparently it's team policy not to announce contract deals so I guess we won't know for a while if the Wizards had the money to really go after him.  For more coverage on the Patterson signing, make sure to head over to Clips Nation.

So with Patterson off the market, it looks like that 15th spot is almost definitely going to either Mason or Booth, barring some third party comes into discussions from out of nowhere.  On the bright side, at least we won't have to worry about Ruben guarding Lebron or making passes.

UPDATE: According to the aforementioned Clips Nation, it looks like Patterson signed a one year deal. Still no word on how much money was involved.

According to the official site, Calvin Booth and Roger Mason recently participated in the Basketball Ireland Federation Summer Jam, along with Assistant Director of Player Personnel (that's not redundant at all...) Tim Connelly.  Obviously, this is a classic example of professional athletes making a positive impact on our communities, when all we really hear about are the negative stories.

There's only one issue.  Neither of them are under contract for the Wizards.

More accurately, neither of them are under contract for anyone.  I imagine the Wizards wouldn't mind having them back, but with little salary cap and roster space left, I didn't think we could count on it.  But if that's the case, why feature them on your official site?  It seems a little odd.

Am I making something out of nothing?  Of course.  It's just interesting to me.