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NBA Draft lottery 2013: Wizards move up to No. 3

2013-05-21T22:09:41Z

The Wizards didn't get the No. 1 pick, but they did get lucky, moving up to the No. 3 selection despite a 12.4 percent chance to do so.

The 2013 NBA Draft lottery is tonight, and chances are, the Washington Wizards will land exactly where they started the night. The Wizards finished in a tie for the seventh-worst record in the league and lost a tiebreaker with the Detroit Pistons, so they'll enter the night with the eighth-most ping-pong combinations.

But there is still a chance that something better happens. Two years ago, the Cleveland Cavaliers were armed with the Los Angeles Clippers' unprotected No. 1 pick thanks to taking on Baron Davis' gargantuan contract. The Clippers finished with the league's eighth-worst record that season. A month later, the Cavaliers had won Kyrie Irving from that Clippers pick.

Of course, given the Wizards' lottery luck outside of the two years they won the No. 1 pick, there's always a chance things end up worse than expected. Even last year, they finished lower than their draft position to select Bradley Beal. We don't need to go through all the other times things ended up even worse than that.

To get you ready for tonight, here are the numbers you should keep in mind:

35: That's the number of ping-pong combinations, out of 1,000, that the Wizards have. The machine has 14 balls numbered 1-14, which are drawn one-by-one. Once four are taken out, the combination is read to determine who gets the No. 1 pick. After that, the same process repeats itself for the No. 2 and No. 3 pick. (If a combination assigned to a team is drawn for the second time, it is tossed out and the drawing occurs again). Intrepid mathematical minds would note that gives Washington a 3.5 percent chance to win the No. 1 overall selection.
12.4: That's the percentage chance the Wizards end up with a top-three pick. Normally, the chances would be a bit slimmer, but because the Wizards tied with the Pistons for seventh, they essentially get the same odds. The Pistons have a slightly higher chance (12.7 percent) at moving up.
70.2: That's the percentage chance the Wizards stay at No. 8. Like I said, chances are the Wizards will stay right where they are.
17.4: This is the chance something bad happens and the Wizards move down in the draft order. This would require 1-3 of the following teams to move up: Minnesota, Portland, Philadelphia, Toronto, Dallas and/or Utah. There's less than a one percent chance that more than one of those teams gets into the top three, so realistically, the worst-case scenario for the Wizards is ninth.
2: That's the number of times, based on my research, that a team that had a current player as their representative won the lottery. The Blazers sent Brandon Roy in 2007 when they won the Greg Oden sweepstakes, and the Rockets sent Steve Francis when they won Yao Ming in 2002. (I couldn't figure out who the Kings sent in 1989 or the Hornets sent in 1991). The Wizards will be sending Bradley Beal, so hopefully they can buck the trend.
58: The number of times it took me playing ESPN's draft lottery simulator to get the above screenshot. Hopefully the Wizards have better luck tomorrow.

All this will be decided at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Good luck,

More BF draft coverage:

2013 NBA Draft Lottery time, TV schedule and open thread

2013-05-21T22:07:26Z

OK folks, it's time. Time to see if the same lucky charms that have consistently eluded the Washington Wizards in the NBA Draft lottery will grant them an unlikely top-three pick. This is your open thread for the 2013 NBA Draft lottery.

Here is everything you need to know about tonight's festivities:

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET. The coverage window begins at 7:30.
Channel: ESPN.
Odds: The Wizards have a 3.5-percent chance at the No. 1 pick and a 12.4-percent chance to sneak into the top three. The most likely scenario (70.2 percent) is that they stay at No. 8. Here's our breakdown that details their chances in full.
History: The Wizards have been in the lottery a whopping 16 times since it began in 1985. They have outperformed their expected finish just twice, when they won the lottery in 2001 (Kwame Brown) and 2010 (John Wall). They have finished according to expectations five times: 1989 (ninth), 1991 (eighth), 1994 (fifth), 2002 (11th) and 2003 (10th). They have finished below expectations nine times. Of those nine times, only once (last year) did they remain in the top three.
Representative: The Wizards are sending Bradley Beal this time. Their representatives in the last four years: Zach Leonsis, Ted's son (2012), John Wall (2011), Irene Pollin (2010, the year they won) and Flip Saunders (2009).
Conspiracy theory? Tom Ziller has one for all 14 teams.
Other picks: The Wizards will also have the No. 37 and No. 54 picks in the second round, the latter of which came from the 2012 trade with the Knicks for Ronny Turiaf. Ernie Grunfeld has indicated that the team doesn't want to have three rookies on next year's roster.

OK guys, let's do this.

NBA Draft 2013: Thoughts on the Wizards possibly trading their pick

2013-05-21T16:32:22Z

So, here's the thing about the idea that the Washington Wizards should trade their draft pick to receive some immediate help, an idea promoted by several of their players ...

King said it was difficult to give up the pick, but "in meeting with our scouts, we felt the player that we may draft beyond the protection would be somebody that would probably take a couple years (to develop), and at this point, we're trying to speed the process up a bit and start winning (more).

"I can understand the fanbase (wanting us to keep the pick), but I'd rather try to balance the roster, add a piece and still have cap flexibility," King said.

A team source told ESPN.com's Chad Ford the Nets were willing to part with their top-3 protected pick because there are only three players in the upcoming draft the Nets covet -- Kentucky'sAnthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Kansas' Thomas Robinson.

That's ESPN.com on the now-Brooklyn Nets' decision to trade a top draft pick for Gerald Wallace. That pick could have become Damian Lillard, Harrison Barnes or Andre Drummond.

And, of course, there was the Wizards' transparent desire to trade the No. 5 pick in 2009 for veteran help, which landed them Randy Foye and Mke Miller.

I bring these up not to rule out trading the pick. If I were Ernie Grunfeld, I'd be open to pretty much any means to improve the team. I bring these up because those are the kinds of decisions that get made when a team makes an assumption about a draft class and seeks out trading the pick.

The default position for any team should be to keep their draft pick and use any other scenarios as alternatives, not the other way around. No matter how deep the draft class may be, it still offers clubs their best chance to receive cheap talent with upside that can be molded into core players. Prospects have a clean slate and rookie contracts. Players already in the league often don't. More importantly, every time someone telegraphs their interest in a trade, it devalues the pick as an asset.

To be fair, based on Grunfeld's appropriately-vague comments to Michael Lee of the Washington Post, that appears to be how the Wizards are handling things this time around:

When asked whether he feels as compelled to keep the pick as in past seasons, Grunfeld said: "Everything is on the table. We're going to explore our options and prepare for any scenario. I think it's a little bit different [this year]. We'll see what's out there for us. But at the same time, regardless of where we end up, we'll be prepared to make a pick."

Grunfeld also said that while you can never "depend" on a rookie having an immediate impact, the Wizards will "try" to get a player that can "help us down the road, if not next year." Back in 2009, Grunfeld was using that rhetoric as a reason not to make a pick. Here, it does seem a little different.

Nevertheless, I do hope the Wizards continue to assume they will be using whatever pick they get unless something better comes along. There are a lot of reasons why more young talent is needed on this roster. Namely:

Outside of John Wall and Bradley Beal, the Wizards lack any building blocks for the future. The 2011 draft appears to have been a disaster, and the frontcourt is getting older. When the Wizards think about their future by the time Wall and Beal both are on their second contracts, who else will be joining them? There isn't anyone on the roster that can stand side-by-side with them as an additional core piece.
Draft picks are cheaper, which matters because the Wizards are right at the level of the salary cap, likely need to save a big chunk of their mid-level exception if they want to keep Martell Webster and have an owner that has publicly stated he has "no intention" of going over the luxury tax.
While this draft is weak in high-level talent, there isn't a huge difference between picks 3 and 8. A lot depends on development, finding the right fit and the like, but there's no reason the No. 8 guy can't prosper with proper training. There are a lot of complimentary pieces available.
"Weak drafts" often turn out to be strong drafts. See: 2011 and 2009.

Of course, the Wizards should be open to a trade within this framework. I just wouldn't make it the first option. Figuring out the kind of player that would reasonably be available and help the Wizards in exchange for their first-round pick is very difficult. You're essentially looking at one of these three types of players.

Veteran, near-all star: Positives: an upgrade in immediate talent as the Wizards try to get serious, another veteran to help provide an example for the youngsters. Negatives: likely will cost a lot of money, may not be around in the team's future, unlikely to be available unless a team has a good reason for dumping them.
Youngster that hasn't worked out with another team: Positive: you still get a player with upside even if you don't draft them. Negatives: teams rarely give up on rookie-contract players unless there's a good reason, and any hope of rehabilitating said player involves washing away whatever development stink caused them to be a disappointing for their old team.
Role player: Positives: you know what you're going to get with this person/people and you can attach other considerations (move down rather than move out of the draft; dump a bad contract) to the deal. Negatives: you're trading a lottery pick for a caliber of player available cheaply in free agency every year.

There may be a player that comes up within these frameworks that makes sense, but I'm having a hard time coming up with a good option that's potentially available. As it happens, I reserve the right to change my mind, but there's a reason teams don't usually trade out of lottery picks.

My preferred course of action, then? Keep an open mind, but assume using the pick is always Option 1. And I'd say that no matter what happens in tonight's draft lottery.

More BF draft coverage:

• Chances the Wizards get lucky?

NBA Draft 2013 scouting report: Trey Burke

2013-05-21T14:54:26Z

Our prospect profiles on the top players in the 2013 NBA Draft continue with Michigan's Trey Burke.

***

Team: Michigan

Class: Sophomore

Position: PG

Expected draft position: Top 6

Year	GP	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%
2012-13	39	18.6	3.2	6.7	1.6	0.5	46%	38%	80%

College career: There was plenty of reason for optimism in Ann Arbor two years ago following the gloomy departure of dynamic Big Ten assists leader Darius Morris. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jordan Morgan were coming off excellent freshman campaigns, and much of the team was entrenched with solid upperclassmen that were viewed as stabilizing forces in the locker room and in practices.

But after years of solid recruiting classes, coach John Belien would bring in a relatively unheralded class devoid of high profile players. Except one. Trey Burke.

Trey Burke scouting report

Burke would do what his predecessor could not. He quickly picked up the nuances of Belien's complex offensive system, so much so that he was entrusted an unusual amount of leeway in the offense for a freshman point guard. Belien would later employ a more pro style, spread pick and roll attack to the Wolverines offense, which Burke grabbed by the horns, elevating the school to the No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament before being upset in the round of 64 by Ohio. Projected to be a late first-round pick with concerns about his size, defensive shortcomings and ability to distribute, Burke tested the NBA waters but eventually made the decision to return to school for his sophomore season.

Burke came out the gates red hot with a pair of efficient 20-point games to tip off his sophomore campaign. He had no problem feasting on a fairly weak Michigan schedule that faced just nine ranked teams all season, and he seemingly improved in every facet of the game as the season progressed. After a memorable tournament run that featured several big time clutch performances, Burke went on to collect a series of awards, including AP National Player of the Year and he Naismith award.

After seeing the draft hoopla surrounding him fade as he crumbled in the tournament as a freshman, a strong showing this time around proved to be an excellent catapult into the top half of the lottery. He is now considered the best point guard in the draft and a real darkhorse to be top-three selection come June.

Offense: Burke doesn't possess the breathtaking measurables or the jaw-dropping athleticism that we've been accustomed to seeing in top point guard prospects. He isn't ultra quick, he isn't explosive and he won't wow you as he finishes a fastbreak. But he does have a keen sense of running an offense, a rarefied ability to manipulate a defense, and a surgeon-like approach to running pick and rolls. He knows when to pass, when to get his teammates involved and understands his personnel well. He acts as both a scorer and a playmaker, he can push the ball in transition, slow it down and run halfcourt sets and shoot off the dribble.

He didn't see many spot up opportunities on account of all the playmaking he had to create, but showed great form on his jumper off the dribble and off screens. He has a high release point while getting good lift, and while he doesn't have a tremendous first step, he uses his dribble well to elude defenders in order to compensate for his lack of size.

Burke's knack for keeping his head on a swivel and reading defenses will make him a top selection in this draft. He fortifies this skill with elite ball handling and patience. He's very good in the open court, using an array of crossover and hesitation dribbles to get by defenders. In halfcourt sets, he makes good use of space by either getting defenders in the air with shot fakes. He's also an expert at his crafty dribble to get around defenders, only to use his butt as a means to keep defenders on his back while he surveys the floor, a la Chris Paul.

He didn't look to score at the rim nearly as much, often choosing to dump the ball off to his bigs to finish. When he did (just 24 percent of his shots were at the rim), he converted 63 percent of the time. It's not an outrageously-bad rate given his stature, but it's troubling that he got to the free-throw line just four times a contest while shooting the ball 14 times a game. His shot selection could improve, as he gets trigger happy from three (five attempted per game with the majority being off the dribble), and he should look to develop more touch around the basket.

Defense: Burke should continue to add strength to an already solid frame in order to fight over screens and prevent bigger guards from posting him up. He's improved markedly since coming to Michigan as a defender, understanding angles better and funneling his man into help. He's a little slow laterally and isn't a great athlete, but makes up for it with his competitiveness, leadership qualities and 6'5'' wingspan. He's also a plus rebounder due to his tough nature and tireless motor.

Trey Burke Draft Combine Interview (via DraftExpress)

Pro potential/Wizards fit: When evaluating point guards, it's essential to brood over one's ability to control the tempo, run the pick and roll effectively, change speeds, and shoot threes when defenders go under screens. The latter may not be as important, but it's an invaluable attribute to any offense. Point guards should not disappear in games and should be the rock of your team. Trey Burke has all of that. He has no glaring weakness and is smart enough to adjust to the professional ranks.

However, the Wizards obviously don't need what Burke brings to the table as much because they already have John Wall. While the Wizards have holes everywhere on the team, and while it would be great to bring in another pick and roll player off the bench that you could ensconce in small-ball fourth-quarter lineups, it's merely a luxury over a pressing need at this point. Once drafted, Burke would immediately lose his value as teams begin to position themselves for next year's point guard class. Moreover, drafting Burke would mean passing on players such as Otto Porter and Victor Oladipo, which the front office cannot afford.

More BF draft coverage:

• The Wizards' lottery odds.

NBA Draft lottery 2013 odds, time, TV schedule: What's at stake for the Washington Wizards

2013-05-21T12:00:13Z

To get you ready for tonight, here are the numbers you should keep in mind:

35: That's the number of ping-pong combinations, out of 1,000, that the Wizards have. The machine has 14 balls numbered 1-14, which are drawn one-by-one. Once four are taken out, the combination is read to determine who gets the No. 1 pick. After that, the same process repeats itself for the No. 2 and No. 3 pick. (If a combination assigned to a team is drawn for the second time, it is tossed out and the drawing occurs again). Intrepid mathematical minds would note that gives Washington a 3.5 percent chance to win the No. 1 overall selection.
12.4: That's the percentage chance the Wizards end up with a top-three pick. Normally, the chances would be a bit slimmer, but because the Wizards tied with the Pistons for seventh, they essentially get the same odds. The Pistons have a slightly higher chance (12.7 percent) at moving up.
70.2: That's the percentage chance the Wizards stay at No. 8. Like I said, chances are the Wizards will stay right where they are.
17.4: This is the chance something bad happens and the Wizards move down in the draft order. This would require 1-3 of the following teams to move up: Minnesota, Portland, Philadelphia, Toronto, Dallas and/or Utah. There's less than a one percent chance that more than one of those teams gets into the top three, so realistically, the worst-case scenario for the Wizards is ninth.
2: That's the number of times, based on my research, that a team that had a current player as their representative won the lottery. The Blazers sent Brandon Roy in 2007 when they won the Greg Oden sweepstakes, and the Rockets sent Steve Francis when they won Yao Ming in 2002. (I couldn't figure out who the Kings sent in 1989 or the Hornets sent in 1991). The Wizards will be sending Bradley Beal, so hopefully they can buck the trend.
58: The number of times it took me playing ESPN's draft lottery simulator to get the above screenshot. Hopefully the Wizards have better luck tomorrow.

All this will be decided at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Good luck,

More BF draft coverage:

Bradley Beal still not cleared after stress injury, according to report

2013-05-20T23:54:48Z

Here's a report that could concern some people. Bradley Beal, who was shut down for the season due to a stress injury in his right fibula about seven weeks ago, has yet to be cleared to resume basketball-related activities, according to CSN Washington's J Michael.

He is supposed to abstain from activities for six weeks (42 days). Monday marks the 48th. The Wizards' athletic trainers must clear him first but they have not, a team official told CSN Washington.

You'll recall that Beal was dealing with injuries on both ankles prior to being shut down, both of which reportedly contributed to the fibula injury.

It's not the end of the world that Beal is past his timetable, of course. He has a whole offseason left, every player's body heals differently and it behooves the Wizards to make absolute sure his fibula is sound before letting him put pressure on it again. But it's still always a concern that an athlete is still injured past his initial timetable. The longer this lingers, the more it could potentially cut into Beal's offseason program.

Hopefully, this will be resolved soon.

NBA Draft 2013 scouting report: Anthony Bennett

2013-05-20T18:39:57Z

Our prospect profiles on the top players in the 2013 NBA Draft continue with UNLV's Anthony Bennett.

Team: UNLV

Class: Freshman

Position: Power forward

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2012 - Anthony Bennett	35	27.1	5.8	10.8	53.3	1.0	2.7	37.5	3.5	5.1	70.1	2.5	5.7	8.1	1.0	1.9	0.7	1.2	2.3	16.1

College career: Bennett arrived at UNLV with incredible fanfare. The latest in a line of well-known basketball recruits at prestigious Las Vegas school Findlay Prep, Bennett ultimately decided to stay in the area. He warded off offers from Florida and Kentucky and finally settled on UNLV over Oregon after getting a push from former AAU teammate Khem Birch, who was about to transfer into the program.

UNLV had signed kids from Findlay Prep before -- the school's founder was a former UNLV player and is a longtime booster -- but Bennett was the symbol of their return to national prominence. UNLV had been in the NCAA Tournament for the previous three years under Lon Kruger and Dave Rice, but Bennett was their top recruit since ... Stacey Augmon? Larry Johnson? It had been a long time since UNLV had reeled in a top-10 guy. With Mike Moser returning to school, UNLV was poised to ride their two forwards to glorious places.

Things started off well. Bennett dropped 22 and 10 in a 83-79 loss to the Ducks in November, showing them a glimpse of what they missed. A couple weeks later, he had his true national breakdown, scoring 25 points and grabbing 13 rebounds in a tight win over California on the road. Bennett became a fixture on the national highlights when he slammed down this thunderous right-handed dunk with the game in the balance.

Unfortunately for the Rebels, Moser suffered a gruesome elbow injury in this game. He rushed back a few weeks later, but was not the same player. Dreams of pairing Moser and Bennett never materialized, with the two often playing separately rather than together.

Bennett-mania faded a bit after that December game, as the freshman was more inconsistent in Mountain West play. He had some fantastic games, dropping 17 and 12 in a home upset win over New Mexico and 21 and 12 in a victory over fellow draft prospect Jamaal Franklin and San Diego State. But he also struggled at times, particularly in road losses to Colorado State and Fresno State. A shoulder injury suffered in late February against Wyoming -- the same one he had surgery to repair -- inhibited him late in the year, and his season ended meekly in the NCAA Tournament at the hands of the same California zone defense he dominated in December.

Other reports: Ben McLemore Nerlens Noel Alex Len Otto Porter Shabazz Muhammad

Offense: Bennett is an explosive two-foot jumper with an array of perimeter and post skills that should make scouts drool. His broad, wide shoulders allow him to power through contact, and his soft hands allow him to catch and finish almost any pass around the rim. Watching him, it's immediately clear why he evoked comparisons to LJ from UNLV faithful.

Bennett is most devastating when turning and facing on a slower big man. His perimeter game and footwork are extremely advanced for someone his age. When he's isolated on a player 17 feet from the hoop with a live dribble, he's incredibly tough to stop. He has an excellent turnaround and pull-up jumper that keeps defenses honest and is really good at using his jab steps to get separation. His long strides lunging to the rim ensure that he'll get past his defender if they are off-balanced, and he can elevate over defenders or power through them. His signature move against Cal was a wing isolation in this manner. He used a shot fake to get the defender off-balanced, then took a long stride with his right foot out of the triple threat position to get to the rim for the one-handed finish.

Bennett is also a really good finisher around the basket. When used in the pick and roll, he can dive to the rim and handle almost any pass. (This proved important because UNLV's guards weren't exactly the best at throwing clean passes). His explosive leaping ability also makes him a major threat on the offensive glass. Scouts talk a lot about "rejumpability," i.e. being able to get off the ground a second time before everyone else leaps for the first time. Bennett has the ability to do that.

Bennett also has an advanced perimeter game that will allow him to play well out on the floor at the next level. He shot just 33 percent on threes in college, but that was more due to his shot selection than his stroke. With more space and a defined role, Bennett should see his percentages rise. He's also got excellent mechanics on pull-up jumpers and shot fakes, so he should be a threat to drive past closing-out defenders.

Bennett's biggest weaknesses are his court vision and shot selection. He averaged just 1.3 assists per 40 minutes last year, which is down there with noted non-passers like Shabazz Muhammad, Jeff Withey and Christian Watford. One has to wonder how Bennett will respond to the elaborate double-teams and weakside zones that he'll see in the NBA. His shot selection also left something to be desired, though that can be cured with experience and a more defined role. Nevertheless, these two shortcomings help explain why Cal's zone defense took him out of the game in the NCAA Tournament.

Overall, though, there's a ton to like. Few prospects in this draft has Bennett's scoring polish and upside.

Bennett might be the single most unaware defensive prospect I've ever seen.

Defense: It's hard to avoid hyperbole here: Bennett might be the single most unaware defensive prospect I've ever seen. There is nothing he does well on this end, and those shortcomings are due entirely to his effort.

Simply put, Bennett does not compete on the defensive end. He spends most possessions standing upright, unconcerned with what's happening around him. It's a miracle when he actually shows on a pick and roll. It's even more of one when he anticipates a team's play and helps a teammate recover by briefly switching onto his man off the ball. Like some young bigs, he has little concept of defensive responsibility besides checking his man. The simplest off-ball movement confuses him, which is potentially a huge problem if he's asked to check the stretch 4s at the next level.

Bennett's post defense is OK when he tries, but that doesn't always happen. He can get bullied inside, and while many would attribute that to him being undersized, his wingspan and length should theoretically allow him to compensate. The real issue is that he's either unable or unwilling to use his strength to leverage position. He also will sometimes give up offensive rebounds because he doesn't do his work early.

In Bennett's defense, he wasn't exactly subject to much accountability at UNLV. As the program's highest-rated recruit in three decades, Bennett couldn't exactly be benched for inferior players. The injury to Moser also hurt UNLV's frontcourt depth and forced Bennett to play out of position at center for a stretch until Birch became eligible. Bennett has probably never had a coach who demanded effort out of him defensively. The hope for the NBA team that drafts him is that the intensity of the NBA game will force him to shape up to get playing time.

That could potentially come, which would make Bennett an even better prospect. He certainly has the length and athleticism to be an OK defender. But he has a long, long, long, long way to go to get to that point.

Draft Express' scouting report

Pro potential/Wizards fit: The Wizards desperately need a big man that can stretch the floor and score, and nobody available in the lottery can do that better than Bennett. In the most basic sense, that makes him a tantalizing player that may be impossible to pass up if available. Bennett is supremely talented, and with the right kind of coaching and development, he could turn into a potential star.

But he will require enough coaching to at least be passable defensively, and that's going to be tough. The only way for him to learn to give proper effort is for him to sit when he doesn't. Randy Wittman will get fed up with the kind of defensive effort he showed in college. It's going to require a solid plan, a lot of hard work and a ton of sticks and carrots for the Wizards to cultivate some defensive intelligence in Bennett's brain.

Nevertheless, Bennett has an incredible amount of upside, and in a draft not known to be top-heavy, the Wizards should take an awfully close look.

Reminds me most of: Brandon Bass, Corliss Williamson, Jason Maxiell.

More BF draft coverage: