So remember how the Wizards were going to use any leftover money from the Gilbert Arenas contract to sign another small forward for cheap to back up the fragile Caron Butler?  Yeah, what happened to that?

I suppose I'm on the fence as to whether it really matters that we didn't sign some backup small forward off the scrap heap for the minimum.  It's not like we're talking about someone who will play a lot of minutes in the first place, after all.  Also, if such player is a veteran, there's always the threat of Eddie Jordan playing him instead of the youngsters who offer far more production on the court. 

Even so, there are players out there to sign, and Caron Butler could use all the reserve help possible to limit the workload he's carried in the past three seasons.  In his three seasons with the Wizards, Butler has played in 36.1, 39.3 and 39.9 minutes per contest (the latter two being career-highs).  In those same three years, Butler has played in 75, 63 and 58 games.  I don't think that inverse proportionality is a coincidence.  Yes, he's had some freak injuries like the broken hand, but Butler has also worn down considerably in the second halves of the last two seasons.  His nagging hip problem, I think, could have been prevented if he played fewer minutes, though the team probably couldn't afford that without Gilbert Arenas around.

Who's out there?  We've talked and debated Bonzi Wells, but I'm thinking the team is looking for someone who's less likely to rock the boat, as much as I wish otherwise.  Quinton Ross is around; he has no offensive game, but he's a good defender and the Princeton combined with Dave Hopla tends to enhance offensive production for poor-shooting wings (see here).  Kirk Snyder is another option and he could also push Nick Young a bit.  Ditto for Fred Jones.  Any one of those guys would be good to fill the final roster spot.  Even if they barely play, it's another warm body that can be fully integrated into the Princeton from the start of the season.

I understand the front office's edict of not signing a 15th player, but I also think it's a little misguided.  The worry is that they won't have the right roster flexibility if someone goes down to sign a replacement.  To that, I say, hogwash.  If the injury occurs before January, for example, the Wizards could just cut Dee Brown and his ungaranteed contract to free up the roster space.  They could also just wave whatever small forward they pick up and eat the cost; it won't matter because the salary would put them under the luxury tax anyway.  Lots of teams keep 15 on the roster and find a way to make things work just fine.

I'm not going to be that guy who makes the definitive connection between last year's injuries and the fact that we only carried 13 players, but I also think it makes no sense to leave a roster spot open just for "flexibility."  That last roster spot could fill a definite need; a backup for Butler that could preserve his health for later in the season.  It's not going to break our season, but it's still somewhat disappointing.

As mentioned in this FanPost, the salary cap and luxury tax figures became official last night.  For our purposes, the only number that matters is the luxury tax.  It will be at 71.15 million next year.

To review: In theory, the luxury tax does not serve as a hard cap.  Teams are allowed to pass the threshold, but if they do, they must pay an additional dollar to the league for every dollar over the tax.  That money then gets redistributed to the teams that are under the threshold.  Essentially, if a team was right at the tax level, then signed another player for five million dollars next season, it would be as if they are signing him for 10 million dollars, since the team must pay five million dollars to the league.  That's why, in practice, many teams treat it like a hard cap.  They don't want to pay money to the league and lose out on the chance to benefit from those teams that do.

Here's how the Wizards stand for next season.  I got most of the salaries from ShamSports.  Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison's salaries are their reported first-year numbers.  JaVale McGee's salary is based on this rookie scale. 

As you can see, we don't have enough space to offer someone the full mid-level exception (5.585 million).  Even if we were to make this proposed salary dump, we still wouldn't be able to use the whole thing without going over the luxury tax. 

That essentially takes us out of the James Posey sweepstakes, unless Abe Pollin decides to go over the luxury tax.  Even if he did, I don't think Posey is a big enough prize to do it.  He was great in the playoffs, but he's also 31 and is looking for a four- or five-year contract.  For a team that's really close to contending, he'd be a great fit, but I'm not sure we're close enough yet.  Maybe we will be in 2010, but not yet.

From the looks of things, management wants to carry 14 players next season, which is smart because it allows the team to add a non-guaranteed salary during the season without having to cut anyone.  That leaves one roster slot open for a potential addition, assuming nobody gets traded or cut.

So who can we get without going over the luxury tax?  One option, of course, is to just re-sign Roger Mason.  Even though he's getting a decent amount of interest around the league, I'm pretty sure he'd agree to come back to the Wizards for less than three million dollars a season.  But re-signing Mason, as good as he was last year, doesn't make much sense to me.  We'd be paying Mason to be a fifth guard down the road even though we don't have a true backup to the notoriously fragile Caron Butler.  Dominic McGuire isn't quite there yet, and Andray Blatche seems better suited to playing power forward than small forward.

So if we're going to use the money, I'd like it to be on a small forward who can play behind Butler.  Who's out there that we can get while still staying under the luxury tax?  Here's a comprehensive list of all free agent small forwards out there

• Josh Childress (Restricted, last year's salary: 3.6 million): A great fit, but will surely command someone's full mid-level exception, if not more.
• Posey (last year: 3.2 million): Again, out of our price range
• Mickael Pietrus (last year: 3.47 million): Gone to Orlando for the full mid-level exception, aka more than we could pay.
• Ricky Davis(last year: 6.81 million): No thanks. 
  
• Ryan Gomes (last year: 770,000): Gomes would be really nice.  He's young, can play the 3 or the 4, and put up really strong numbers across the board last year.  Unfortunately, he's probably out of our price range.
• Kelenna Azubuike (Restricted, last year: 687,000): Again, someone who would be a great addition, but probably played his way out of our price range.  I see him getting someone's mid-level (maybe the Spurs)
  
• Bonzi Wells (last year: 2.28 million): Too much baggage, but I have to say, he intrigues me because he can score in the paint.  Only for less than 1.5 million, though.
  
• James Jones (last year: 2.9 million): Just signed a five-year, 22 million dollar deal with Miami.  I wouldn't have wanted him anyway, since he's not much of a defender.
  
• Bostjan Nachbar (last year: 2.5 million): Intriguing.  New Jersey appears to be his first choice, but they're worried about signing him for more than 2 years.  He might command too much, but for 3 million a year, he works for me.
  
• Trevor Ariza (last year: 3.1 million): Already exercised his player option to remain with the Lakers. 
  
• Matt Barnes (last year: 3 million): He's the name tossed around a lot, but his production really took a dive last year, and he hadn't done much prior to 2007.  I worry that his reputation is mostly due to the Warriors' system and his playoff exploits two years ago.  One thing's for sure: Golden State definitely isn't keeping him, and his market value is pretty low.  I suppose he works fine.  He apparently has an interesting connection to Gilbert Arenas, for what it's worth. 
  
• Devin Brown (last year: 1.2 million): We nearly signed him instead of DeShawn Stevenson last summer.  Instead, he went to Cleveland late and was decent until being benched in the playoffs.  He's a good option to me.  Always been underrated and should come pretty cheap.
  
• Michael Finley: Too old.  His game fell off a cliff last year.
  
• Maurice Evans (last year: 1.74 million): Another decent option who is definitely available now that Orlando signed Pietrus. 
  
• Tony Allen (last year: last year: 1.86 million): Boston didn't pick up his qualifying option, so he's definitely available.  I actually like him a lot.  He can't shoot, but he can defend like crazy and is athletic.  He'll come cheaply, and he's young enough to become something more than a simple reserve.  Remember, he's one more year removed from ACL surgery.
  
• Quinton Ross (last year: 826,000): Good defender, but literally has no offensive game.
  
• Dorell Wright (Restricted, last year: 2.04 million): Another intriguing option like Allen.  Not a great defender or shooter, but has lots of room to grow.
  
• Kirk Snyder (last year: 2.35 million): Minnesota didn't pick up his qualifying offer.  Doesn't really do anything for me.
  
• Devean George (last year: 2.37 million): Too old.
  
• Jarvis Hayes (last year: 1.2 million): Yeah right.  Just making sure you were paying attention

I'm actually pretty optimistic here.  A lot of those names are pretty intriguing and can provide about as much as Posey or Pietrus could for half the price.  Maybe they don't have the entire package those guys bring, but they also have room to improve.  Besides, we're looking for a backup, not somebody who will play a ton of minutes. 

The key, though, is to sign someone on a short-term deal.  I don't want any of these guys tying up cap space for the next five years.  They're all pretty similar anyway, so if one guy wants five years, we can just move on and sign another who'll take two or three years.

My top choices are probably Devin Brown, Tony Allen, Maurice Evans or Matt Barnes.  If we get one of those four guys, I think our backup small forward position is secure.

Who do you guys like?  Do any of these guys do anything for you?

This is the part 4b of a four part series assessing the future of the Washington Wizards. Part 4a focused on free agent big men and a trade possibility for Blazer big man, Joel Pryzbilla (our SB Nation colleague from BlazersEdge has since stopped by and nixed the deal......and probably rightfully so).

A couple of readers expressed that a greater need is for a wing man/guard....someone who can serve as a backup for Caron Butler. I agree, and that's one of the reasons I listed a lock-down perimeter defender as need #1 in part 3 of the series. Earlier parts were hosted on Truth About It Dot Net and you will find those links below.

The Washington Wizards Future
Part I: The Situation Room, Part II: The Assumptions, Part III: Needful Things

Like last time, I'm going to list select statistical ratings which are most in tune with team needs. Each player will be rated using True Shooting Percentage (TS%) from KnickerBlogger.net. I'm also going to use the John Hollinger numbers of Rebound Rate (Reb-R) for obvious reasons, Assist Rate (Ast-R) because passing skills are always wanted, and the famed PER as a general evaluation. Finally, I'm adding each player's 3-point percentage for their career.

Tony Allen

(Restricted, Boston Celtics) 6-4, 213, 26 years

TS% - 52.7
3P % - .316
Reb-R - 7.3
Ast-R - 16.5
PER - 10.83

I’ll always remember Tony Allen for blowing out his knee while going for a dunk well after the whistle blew.

• Plus: Allen is a slashing athletic monster who uses his ability to create turnovers. His on-ball D is solid when he is not gambling. He has the strength to hit the boards on both ends. Allen seems like a "slasher"….meaning I've seen his ability to get to the FT line.
• Minus: D'oh….can't shoot….can't dribble…turnover city. This year's FG% was by far the worst of his 4-year career. And the Wizards definitely don't need another guy with a history of knee injuries and guns.

Mickaël Piétrus

(Unrestricted, Golden State Warriors) 6-6, 215, 26 years

TS% - 54.9
3P % - .353
Reb-R - 9.8
Ast-R - 9.3
PER - 12.88

Piétrus has always been an intriguing player, but hasn't lived up to his potential as a former 11th overall pick in 2003…..and hasn't turned out much better than the guy picked right before him, Jarvis Hayes.

• Plus: Lengthy athleticism…sounds good to me as he uses that to defend (steals, blocks, boards). Pietrus can also shoot from the outside, making 1 trey a game, attempting 2.8 per. Hollinger says that he likes to shoot from the corners attempting 82.6% of his threes from those spots (of course, that was in 06-07)....but I think that attracting defensive attention to the corners would really help drivers like Arenas and Young.
• Minus: Can't guard guys bigger than him and is less than adequate at ball handling (passing and dribbling). He was in the Warriors 8-man rotation this past season, but didn't show as much improvement as hoped for (especially in a contract year…Piétrus signed a 1-year $3.47 million qualifier last year). His PER actually went down as offense was a struggle in 07-08.

Kirk Snyder

(Restricted, Minnesota Timberwolves) 6-6, 225, 24 years

TS% - 57.3
3P % - .327
Reb-R - 9.6
Ast-R - 18.6
PER - 13.50

From his days with Nevada making Sweet 16 runs in the NCAA tournament, Snyder seemed like an all around baller.

• Plus: Can play defense against multiple positions, In 27 games with Minnesota, he showed his best rebounding and passing skills averaging 4.2 and 2.1. He has the ability to get high% shots.
• Minus: Won't extend the floor with long distance shooting, Doesn't seem to have the quick and hustling D to get many steals, Not an ideal replacement for Roger Mason.

Devin Brown

(Unrestricted, Cleveland Cavaliers) 6-5, 220, 30 in December

TS% - 49.4
3P % - .341
Reb-R - 8.5
Ast-R - 20.2
PER - 11.45

I used to love watching this guy with the Spurs in 04-05 when he was averaging 7.4, 2.7 boards and 37% from three. He balled with the Hornets in 06-07 before signing with Cleveland for a year….but that was also when New Orleans was depleted by injuries leading to signing Brown in mid-season and garbage time minutes.

• Plus: Rebounds well as he is the same height as Roger Mason, but bulkier; Hits the trey ball; Before the season, our friend Hollinger compared Brown to Ledell Eackles….normally I'd say this is a good sign….but that might fall under the Hollinger Jinx: not sure if the comparison is to the good or bad side of Eackles….whatever it may be, Grunfeld needs to do the opposite.
• Minus: Defense is not a strong point….he's never seemed quick. Our need is for more of a stopper.

Keith Bogans

(Unrestricted, Orlando Magic) 6-5, 215, 26 (tomorrow, May 12)

TS% - 55.9
3P % - .353
Reb-R -  7.0
Ast-R -  13.1
PER -  10.99

I've seen Bogans play in person many times as he starred at DC area's DeMatha High and went on to play at the University of Kentucky. He's always struck me as a utility player.....does a lot of things well, but nothing great. He holds a player option on $2.55 million for next year.

Bogans' teammate, Keyon Dooling is also an interesting prospect. Dooling is smaller, a better mid-range shooter, a better distributor, and quicker than Bogans. However, Dooling can be a gunner and I'd rather have the strength and rebounding of Bogans.

• Plus: He's got size to defend three positions; His 3-point shooting has improved as he got the green light to shoot more this season (averaging 5.0 attempts per game (a career high by 1.9), and 1.8 makes (a career high by 0.8).
• Minus: Scouting reports say that his arms aren't very long; His time in Orlando has been spotty as he's received fair chances to solidify himself in the lineup, but played less as the season progressed (averaging over 32 minutes per game the first two months of the season, and less than 24 minutes the final four months). Bogans has averaged 7.0 points and 29 minutes in the playoffs so far.
  

Quentin Ross

(Unrestricted, LA Clippers) 6-6, 193, 27 years

TS% - 43.0
3P % - .286
Reb-R - 6.6
Ast-R - 18.4
PER - 7.72

He's been billed as a defensive stopper, so you know I wouldn't mind him on the team…Ross might be a desperate BAE gamble ($1.91 million).

• Plus: Mid-range game, Decent rebounder for thin frame, Bothersome defender.
• Minus: The knock on his game going into 07-08 was lack of offense, and his stats got worse. He's a bad FT shooter. Seems like the Michael Ruffin of guards.

Chris Duhon

(Unrestricted, Chicago Bulls ) 6-1, 185, 26 in August

TS% - 50.8
3P % - .356
Reb-R - 4.4
Ast-R - 36.9
PER - 11.28  

Would I want this guy over Roger Mason?

• Yes: He's a comparable 3-point shooter, better ball handling and passing skills, better defender than MaseOn.
• No: Not as good a scorer as Mason, Duhon is 4 inches shorter, Duhon went to Duke and he is not from Washington, DC.

And evidently, Duhon is known for partying….not sure on whether that's a 'yes' or a 'no'.

Trevor Ariza

(Player Option, LA Lakers) 6-8, 210, 23 in June

TS% - 56.8
3P % - .209
Reb-R - 11.0
Ast-R - 18.6
PER - 16.18  

I'm with Prada here….well, I wouldn't call Ariza a personal favorite, but I do like the guy's game. Ariza can board, run the floor and is a great, quick defender. Unfortunately, he can't shoot, can't really drive, and his FT shooting is crap. That being said, I'm not sure how much Ariza would give us over Dominic McGuire and why we would want to pay him a ton to do that….as I don't exactly see him declining $3.1 million to play with the Lakers next year.

Royal Ivey

(Unrestricted, Milwaukee Bucks) 6-4, 215, 26 years

TS% -  48.7
3P % - .331
Reb-R -  4.8
Ast-R -  24.1
PER -  8.96

• Plus: Ivey has decent size and can push the ball in transition. I remember him being able to penetrate and distribute into the Wizards zone this season. Defense is Ivey's strong point.
• Minus: He's not the worst three point shooter, but he doesn't take many...making only 35 on the year.

Even though Hollinger compares Ivey to LaBradford Smith in being most similar at age, I'd rather him be a last ditch option. I'd like to have him as a defender, but his youth, inexperience at the point and lack of perimeter game would keep him at the end of the bench.

Yakhouba Diawara

(Restricted, Denver Nuggets) 6-7, 225, 26 in August

TS% - 51.8
3P % - .297
Reb-R - 6.2
Ast-R - 18.4
PER - 8.25

Defensive stopper? Maybe…that's what "they" say. But Diawara leaves a lot to be desired on offense…..a lot. He's more of a training camp invitee than a free agent signee. In fact, I'm not even sure why he's on this list.

Others? C.J. Miles, Jazz (too young), Kevin Ollie, 76ers (too old), Maurice Evans, Magic (I think Orlando would rather keep Evans than Bogans), Tyronn Lue, Mavericks (too small), James Posey, Celtics (I'm betting he takes his $3.462 million player option for next year).

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Final Thoughts

Guys like Pietrus and Bogans stand out to me. They are decent defenders, have some size, a touch of shooting ability, and they can help the team on the boards (something the Wizards need more of at the backup wing position).

If you have Gilbert Arenas and his renewed distribution capabilities along with Antonio Daniels at the point, and Stevenson and Nick Young at the 2 spot, then an addition with the ability to play the 3-spot might fit in very well with this team.