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Jarvis Hayes

#12 / Forward / New Jersey Nets

6-8

220

Aug 09, 1981

Georgia

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The fallacy of "status quo" and the Washington Wizards

Few things grind my gears more than when I hear the criticism that the Wizards have committed to the same core rotation that has never won more than 45 games and advanced deep into the playoffs.  In the first place, it's lazy analysis, but worse yet, it's wrong. 

Yes, there have been mainstays in key spots.  Gilbert Arenas has always been on the roster, though not necessarily in the main rotation because of injuries.  Eddie Jordan has always been the coach.  We have always run the Princeton offense.  Antawn Jamison has always been the glue guy. 

But that doesn't mean the roster has always been the same. Anyone want to guess how many members of that 2005 team are still on the roster only four years later? The answer is four.  The only guys left are Arenas, Jamison, Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas.  Otherwise, the entire roster is guys acquired after 2005.  That hardly strikes me as long-term roster stability.

But fine, let's say that we're talking about a shorter time period.  Instead of measuring the names on the roster, though, wouldn't it make more sense to see whether the rotation itself has stayed the same over a certain time period?  

Continue reading this post »

5 comments | 3 recs | Digg!

Pollin': Detroit goes Brown

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Flickr/Cave Canem

So it appears that Washington's prodigal son has found himself a new home in Detroit.  At first, I have to admit that I was really surprised that Kwame could still net a 2 year/$8 million deal on the open market, but there aren't a lot of young centers left on the market, so I suppose it isn't the worst deal in the world.   Plus, it's short so if it doesn't work out, it's not the biggest loss in the world for the Pistons.

But of course, those are just the ramblings of someone who assumes the worst whenever a former Wizard joins up with another team.  Before you make your voices heard on how well you think Salty Georgia Brown will fare in Detroit, consider the following pros and cons.

Pros:

  • Kwame's become a decent low-post defender who will be able to hold down the fort when older players like Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess need a breather.
  • The Pistons have made it their business to take Wizard castoffs and turn them into Detroit success stories.
  • He still has six fouls to give, right?
  • Kwame always seems to be traded for great players.

Cons:

So how do we feel about the Anti-Pau Gasol heading to Detroit?  Is this going to be the move that wins Joe Dumars GM of the year?  Or is Detroit just the next city on Kwame's hit list?

Poll
Will Kwame be a success in Detroit?
  • Yes
  • No
  • Where's the cake?

  91 votes | Results

0 comments | 0 recs

So whadda we have to spend?

As mentioned in this FanPost, the salary cap and luxury tax figures became official last night.  For our purposes, the only number that matters is the luxury tax.  It will be at 71.15 million next year.

To review: In theory, the luxury tax does not serve as a hard cap.  Teams are allowed to pass the threshold, but if they do, they must pay an additional dollar to the league for every dollar over the tax.  That money then gets redistributed to the teams that are under the threshold.  Essentially, if a team was right at the tax level, then signed another player for five million dollars next season, it would be as if they are signing him for 10 million dollars, since the team must pay five million dollars to the league.  That's why, in practice, many teams treat it like a hard cap.  They don't want to pay money to the league and lose out on the chance to benefit from those teams that do.

Here's how the Wizards stand for next season.  I got most of the salaries from ShamSports.  Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison's salaries are their reported first-year numbers.  JaVale McGee's salary is based on this rookie scale


Salaries_medium

As you can see, we don't have enough space to offer someone the full mid-level exception (5.585 million).  Even if we were to make this proposed salary dump, we still wouldn't be able to use the whole thing without going over the luxury tax. 

That essentially takes us out of the James Posey sweepstakes, unless Abe Pollin decides to go over the luxury tax.  Even if he did, I don't think Posey is a big enough prize to do it.  He was great in the playoffs, but he's also 31 and is looking for a four- or five-year contract.  For a team that's really close to contending, he'd be a great fit, but I'm not sure we're close enough yet.  Maybe we will be in 2010, but not yet.

From the looks of things, management wants to carry 14 players next season, which is smart because it allows the team to add a non-guaranteed salary during the season without having to cut anyone.  That leaves one roster slot open for a potential addition, assuming nobody gets traded or cut.

So who can we get without going over the luxury tax?  One option, of course, is to just re-sign Roger Mason.  Even though he's getting a decent amount of interest around the league, I'm pretty sure he'd agree to come back to the Wizards for less than three million dollars a season.  But re-signing Mason, as good as he was last year, doesn't make much sense to me.  We'd be paying Mason to be a fifth guard down the road even though we don't have a true backup to the notoriously fragile Caron Butler.  Dominic McGuire isn't quite there yet, and Andray Blatche seems better suited to playing power forward than small forward.

So if we're going to use the money, I'd like it to be on a small forward who can play behind Butler.  Who's out there that we can get while still staying under the luxury tax?  Here's a comprehensive list of all free agent small forwards out there

  • Josh Childress (Restricted, last year's salary: 3.6 million): A great fit, but will surely command someone's full mid-level exception, if not more.
  • Posey (last year: 3.2 million): Again, out of our price range
  • Mickael Pietrus (last year: 3.47 million): Gone to Orlando for the full mid-level exception, aka more than we could pay.
  • Ricky Davis(last year: 6.81 million): No thanks. 
  • Ryan Gomes (last year: 770,000): Gomes would be really nice.  He's young, can play the 3 or the 4, and put up really strong numbers across the board last year.  Unfortunately, he's probably out of our price range.
  • Kelenna Azubuike (Restricted, last year: 687,000): Again, someone who would be a great addition, but probably played his way out of our price range.  I see him getting someone's mid-level (maybe the Spurs)
  • Bonzi Wells (last year: 2.28 million): Too much baggage, but I have to say, he intrigues me because he can score in the paint.  Only for less than 1.5 million, though.
  • James Jones (last year: 2.9 million): Just signed a five-year, 22 million dollar deal with Miami.  I wouldn't have wanted him anyway, since he's not much of a defender.
  • Bostjan Nachbar (last year: 2.5 million): Intriguing.  New Jersey appears to be his first choice, but they're worried about signing him for more than 2 years.  He might command too much, but for 3 million a year, he works for me.
  • Trevor Ariza (last year: 3.1 million): Already exercised his player option to remain with the Lakers. 
  • Matt Barnes (last year: 3 million): He's the name tossed around a lot, but his production really took a dive last year, and he hadn't done much prior to 2007.  I worry that his reputation is mostly due to the Warriors' system and his playoff exploits two years ago.  One thing's for sure: Golden State definitely isn't keeping him, and his market value is pretty low.  I suppose he works fine.  He apparently has an interesting connection to Gilbert Arenas, for what it's worth. 
  • Devin Brown (last year: 1.2 million): We nearly signed him instead of DeShawn Stevenson last summer.  Instead, he went to Cleveland late and was decent until being benched in the playoffs.  He's a good option to me.  Always been underrated and should come pretty cheap.
  • Michael Finley: Too old.  His game fell off a cliff last year.
  • Maurice Evans (last year: 1.74 million): Another decent option who is definitely available now that Orlando signed Pietrus. 
  • Tony Allen (last year: last year: 1.86 million): Boston didn't pick up his qualifying option, so he's definitely available.  I actually like him a lot.  He can't shoot, but he can defend like crazy and is athletic.  He'll come cheaply, and he's young enough to become something more than a simple reserve.  Remember, he's one more year removed from ACL surgery.
  • Quinton Ross (last year: 826,000): Good defender, but literally has no offensive game.
  • Dorell Wright (Restricted, last year: 2.04 million): Another intriguing option like Allen.  Not a great defender or shooter, but has lots of room to grow.
  • Kirk Snyder (last year: 2.35 million): Minnesota didn't pick up his qualifying offer.  Doesn't really do anything for me.
  • Devean George (last year: 2.37 million): Too old.
  • Jarvis Hayes (last year: 1.2 million): Yeah right.  Just making sure you were paying attention

I'm actually pretty optimistic here.  A lot of those names are pretty intriguing and can provide about as much as Posey or Pietrus could for half the price.  Maybe they don't have the entire package those guys bring, but they also have room to improve.  Besides, we're looking for a backup, not somebody who will play a ton of minutes. 

The key, though, is to sign someone on a short-term deal.  I don't want any of these guys tying up cap space for the next five years.  They're all pretty similar anyway, so if one guy wants five years, we can just move on and sign another who'll take two or three years.

My top choices are probably Devin Brown, Tony Allen, Maurice Evans or Matt Barnes.  If we get one of those four guys, I think our backup small forward position is secure.

Who do you guys like?  Do any of these guys do anything for you?

 

69 comments | 1 recs

Go Pistons?

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Now were down to the final four in the NBA Playoffs, and there are 4 former Bullet/Wizards left in the playoff chase.  As you can probably deduce from the title of the post as well as the logo right above the paragraph, all four players are members of the Pistons.  Rasheed Wallace, Juan Dixon, Jarvis Hayes, and Richard Hamilton were all drafted by Detroit's AAA affiliate Washington, but eventually found greener pastures in the Motor City.  How come Detroit always get our treasures while we always get their trash?

If rooting for former players isn't the way you like to decide who to root for, or if you just don't want to root for the Pistons, here some other ways to pick a team to root for.

  • The "root for the the team that beat the team that beat us" method.  Team to root for: Boston.
  • The "root for the team with best uniforms" method.  Team to root for: Los Angeles or Boston, depending on your tastes.
  • The "Let's ride the anti-bandwagon!" method.  Team to root for: San Antonio.
  • The "Hey, if they win, then we can say that we beat them three times!" method.  Team to root for: Boston.
  • The "I'm rooting for the team with the team with the player that looks the most like Fabio" method.  Team to root for: Detroit.  Just look at a photo of Walter Hermann, seriously.
  • The "Let's root for them because they gave us Caron Butler for practically nothing!" method.  Team to root for: Los Angeles.  Thanks again Mitch!
  • The "Thanks for taking Tony Parker with the last pick of the first round, ensuring that Gilbert Arenas would be drafted in the second round, opening the door for him to sign a new deal after only two seasons in the NBA" method.  Team to root for: San Antonio.
  • The "Let's go with whatever teams Jake doesn't pick, because he can't predict anything right" method.  Teams to root for: Los Angeles, Detroit, or San Antonio.

3 comments | 0 recs

All-Rookie Teams: Some old, Not enough Young

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Yesterday the All-Rookie teams were announced and (again) Dominic McGuire was blackballed out of any votes.  That's the bad news, the good is that Nick Young was much closer to make the All-Rookie team than anyone on the team was to making the All-Defensive team.  Had he made it, he would've been the first Wizards to make it since Jarvis Hayes back in 2004.  Bonus points to whoever knows who was the last Wizard to make the team before Jarvis.  No cheating!

Nick didn't end up making either team, but he's still looking like a good pick from Ernie Grunfeld.  Just going on simple fact that the player taken 16th in the draft ended up 13th in the rookie voting speaks to the value of the pick.  It gets better when you realize that three of the rookies that got more votes (Jamario Moon, Luis Scola, and JC Navarro) weren't even taken in this year's draft, so you could say that the Wizards wound up with the 10th best rookie from the '07 class, based on the voting. However, I would be quick to mention that Greg Oden was out all season, so 11th would probably be a little more fair.

It'll still take a few more years before we can really evaluate whether taking Young was the best move, but the early returns are looking pretty good for the high-flyer.  Now if only we could get him in the dunk contest...

11 comments | 0 recs

No Your FanShots & FanPosts: 5/12/08

The future is the future. I want to be back in Washington, but weird things happen in free agency. If Antawn is not back, then there’s no point in me coming back because he’s part of my success, too. When you’re doing pick and roll with a player like him, they can’t double you, they can’t trap you because you have a pick and pop guy who can shoot the three at your four position. My success is because of him too. If he doesn’t come back, I’m not coming back.

I know everybody is focusing on whether I’m coming back, but I’m focusing on what he’s doing. If he doesn’t come back, then I’m not coming back.

  • You'll notice that Gilbert doesn't make the same request for Jarvis Hayes.  From the looks of it, it doesn't seem like Detroit will be either.  At least Jarvis can pass the time with the NBA nickname generator.
  • If yesterday's OT thriller turned you into a Jazz bandwagoner, make sure you check out the new SB Nation site for the team, SLC Dunk.
  • The Wizards' website is counting down the top 10 moments of the season.  Here's moments ten through six.
  • If Bullets nostalgia is your thing, this video of a double OT thriller versus the Celtics should hit the spot.
  • If watching a DJ mispronounce DeShawn Stevenson's name is more up your alley, this video should do the trick.
  • Finally, NY1 poses the question of "What do we trade the 18th pick for?"  This will be a point of discussion all the way up to the draft, since it seems extremely likely that Grunfeld will look to move that picks, so check it out.

0 comments | 0 recs


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