In the coming weeks, I'm going to try (emphasis on try) and analyze our competitors in the Southeast Division and take a look at what makes them dangerous in the coming season, and what helps us sleep easier at night.  This is kind of like the community projections except that:

A) No predictions on records will be made.

B) This series will be conducted in bullet point form as opposed to paragraph form.

C) These only pertain to the Southeast Division.

D) These will generally be much more poorly written than the Community Projections.

But other than that, they're kind of the same...but not really.

Why I'm scared:

The Heat's top draft pick, sporting the always in style Fresh Prince look.

• Dwyane Wade is back.  I'm not just talking about recovering from injury, either.  I mean, Dwyane Wade is back.  If you saw his performance at the Olympics, then you know what I'm talking about.  I know there's some weaknesses on that team, but guys like him can cover a multitude of weaknesses.
  
• I know that there were differing views on Michael Beasley going into the draft, but there's no doubt in my mind that he's going to produce.  How he's going to produce and in what ways are up for debate, but he can't be any worse than Luke Jackson.
• Not only is Wade back, but he's back and he's angry.  Lovely.
• I'm not sure if the Heat plan on using Marion as a small forward or a power forward, an offensive focal point or a defensive stopper, as a cornerstone for their franchise or trade bait.  And quite frankly, not knowing how the Matrix is going to be used this year scares me.

Why I'm not scared:

• Of the 13 players on the Heat's roster, 6 of them have one year or less playing experience.  That scares me down the road, but not so much right now.
  
• The Fringe Festival!
• Miami's new coach, Eric Spoelsta, is younger than Alonzo Mourning.  I mean, Zo is a classy enough guy that it shouldn't be a problem, but it's got to be a little awkward at least, right?
  
• Super Mario has been on the hunt for mushrooms, and I'm not talking about the 1 UP kind.
• The inevitable "Nobody likes me" poutfest from Shawn Marion.
• We all know that if D-Wade falls down seven times, he'll stand up eight times.  But if he's reaching for a steal...

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Right now, I see the Heat finishing in the 7-10 range in the East.  They've got three very talented players, but too many holes to make a serious run right now.  Of course, people had similar criticisms of Boston last year, and we saw what happened there.  Granted, there's significant talent gap between Boston's Big 3 and Miami's Big 3, but if this team can come together like Boston did, they could return to the elite a lot quicker than anyone is expecting.

I hate to disappoint many of you, but I don't see the Wizards making any major changes to their roster this season.  Other than potentially signing someone like Bonzi Wells for a one-year minimum contract, what you see is what you'll probably get for the duration of this season.  

Considering their payroll structure, a major move this season doesn't make sense.  Their projected 2009/10 payroll is likely going to place them above the luxury tax threshold even if they do nothing.  They also don't really have any assets that are valuable this season.  Unless you count Dominic McGuire and Dee Brown, the Wizards have no players whose contracts expire in the offseason.  Additionally, with the possible exception of Andray Blatche, the Wizards don't really have any youngsters who have shown much, unless Nick Young's rookie season or Dominic McGuire's Summer League campaigns count.

Many see this as a bad thing, but not me.  Truthfully, we're not close enough to be making that final move to put us over the top.  We haven't laid much of a foundation, having won 45, 42, 41 and 43 games in the past four years.  One could argue that necessitates making a big move, but as indicated above, we simply don't have the assets right now.  Any move will likely involve a key member of our team, and that's not something we should be doing.

The picture changes, however, after the end of next season.  Suddenly, we're armed with three players (Brendan Haywood, Antonio Daniels and Etan Thomas) who give us a combined 20 million dollars in expiring contracts.  We're also likely armed with youngsters like Young, McGuire and maybe Pecherov, McGee and a potential 2009 first-rounder who have shown enough to be used as legitimate sweetners in a trade.  Finally, if we stay healthy this year, we'll likely win more than 45 games and create a more solid foundation for which to take that next step. 

That, combined with the allure of the 2010 free agent class, should allow us to make a trade for a strong player on a team looking to the future.  It's very difficult to say exactly which players will fit the bill, but this post will try to target some guys who could provide us with missing ingredients (perimeter defense, rebounding, versatility, etc.) that can turn us into legitimate contenders. 

The key, though, is to not trade any of our core guys.  That's why the Lakers' trade for Pau Gasol was successful and the Mavericks' trade for Jason Kidd wasn't.  By "core guys," I'm talking about players who are essential for their respective teams, not necessarily the best players on the club. 

So who is part of the Wizards' core?  Here's how I'd break it down.

• Gilbert Arenas: Pretty self-explanatory
• Caron Butler: Ditto.
• Antawn Jamison: It's mostly because of his contract.  Still, every time Jamison gets hurt, this team suffers tremendously.  I imagine he's going to start a slow decline next year, but even so, his value is extremely important both on and off the court.
• Brendan Haywood: This is a tough one for me.  On the one hand, Haywood represents six million of the Wizards' 20-million dollars of expiring contracts in 2010, but on the other hand, Haywood's the only real center on the team and the only strong interior defender.  He also doesn't really need to score a ton to be effective on the other end, so in this respect, he blends well with the Big 3.  The only way I'd trade him is if a real superstar (e.g. Amare Stoudamire, Yao Ming, etc.) is out there.  For these second-tier guys that will be discussed, it's not worth trading Haywood.
• Andray Blatche: I'm also going to put Blatche in this group because his contract is too small to account for his upside.  He's not only our best prospect, but he's also locked up to a long-term deal for only three million dollars a season.  Like Haywood, if a megastar was available, I'd consider trading Blatche, but for these second-tier guys, I'm hoping our other young guys are good enough to be sweetners.

Outside of those five guys, I'd trade anybody. 

So who do I have in mind?  Make the jump for some possibilities.

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