Hindsight is 20/20, especially when it scores 28 points

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 25, 2007 1:35 AM EST in Recaps

(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

A recap is coming later, until then this is the place to argue it out over whether or not trading #2 was the right move. I'm still leaning to yes, but I'm a somewhat more open to no after tonight's game.

If you want to argue about whether or not trading #42 was the right move, you have a much tougher task ahead of you.

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#42

First, I thought you meant Mike Hall, and couldn't figure out where you were going with that. Maybe that's how quick I was to block out the Stackhouse era.

On to #2...yeesh. Navarro has looked really, really efficient the few times I've seen his box score/caught his higlights. His three-point shooting and capable handling would've been a nice asset on this team...especially w/o Gilbert.

Besides everything else, though, the Wizards have awesome chemistry and DeShawn is clearly part of that; Navarro, meanwhile, isn't going to find a place where he's more welcome than next to BFF Gasol in Memphis. Plus, even when his offense is off, DeShawn helps the team defensively, too, as Prada just pointed out...you've gotta think his scoring will come around before 2007's over.

Still, locker room dynamics can be a bit overrated...they tend to be good when a team's winning, and vice-versa. As a foreigner taking Steve Smith's starting spot, Ginobili was frozen out when he first got to San Antonio, and I think everyone's gotten over that quite nicely. Plus, I still wonder if DeShawn was resigned as a sop to Gilbert...the Wiz will come out ahead if Stevenson returns to last year's form, but otherwise, this may hurt for the next 10 years.

by Doctor Dribbles on Nov 25, 2007 2:00 AM EST reply actions

He's old

Agree with you up until the "next ten years" part. JCN will be, what, like 36 or 38 then or something?

Long term, we're looking to Nick Young to be this team's shooting guard who can fill it up. Even with tonight's game, I think the kid has got more upside than JCN (who, if he isn't pretty polished by now, probably was never going to be).

And again, it's not like the Wizards are having any trouble scoring buckets with Gilbert out. Apparently it's all about Gilbert-as-defensive ace (?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!)

by sierradave on Nov 25, 2007 3:11 AM EST up reply actions

Reggie Miller could still fill it up

Points taken, on polish and age. I thought JCN was a bit older, but not 27...although, shooters can retain value well into their late 30s.

by Doctor Dribbles on Nov 25, 2007 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

It's more complex than this

Consider the following:

-The Wizards had already drafted Nick Young and Dominic McGuire before JCN announced he wanted to play in the NBA.

-Negotiations with DeShawn were already well underway. Do you think it would have been wise to simply stop those, even if you now weren't sure you'd sign DeShawn?

-JCN asked for three million a year here, and then once he got traded to Memphis, he took the vets minimum. Huh?

In light of all that, it's really tough to lean one way or the other. It would have been nice to have him, but again, his skill set is similar to a lot of players we have here. Not to mention that it was clear he never really wanted to play here, from the silly deadline to the backhanded compliments and the contract snafus.

It's kind of like Vancouver saying "If only we had Steve Francis." Well, sure, it would have been nice, but it's kind of inconceivable.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 25, 2007 9:41 AM EST reply actions

Good points, but allow me to spout off

The Wiz never really tried to make JCN a part of their team. If they wanted him, there was nothing stopping them from dropping Deshawn like a rock and offering JCN the money instead. What would you rather take: Starter's minutes and a key spot next to Gilbert, Caron, and Antawn or another year in Spain? In my mind, if the Wiz had played their hand more aggressively, they could've landed this Spanish assassin.

I think Ernie thought of some of your points and also considered the team's (read Gilbert Arenas') possibly negative reaction and decided to get what he could for the commodity.

What he didn't consider was the following:

Deshawn sank like a stone after Gilbert went down last year. And even when GA was playing, DS was an average SG at best.
If Gilbert were to go down again, we'd have no lethal scorer in our backcourt (save for Nick Young, whose lethality is just now becoming apparent).
Despite Deshawn's supposed reputation for defense, the Wiz will always stink defensively.

Fast forward to present-day Wizardry, and we find ourselves in a pretty dire situation, relying on NY to assume a huge scoring load because nobody else in the backcourt can do so.

Sure it's a hypothetical, but just imagine if Ernie had played to win JCN and won him. Yes, the team would have grumbled. GA may have even come out and voiced displeasure with the move. But then training camp would have started, and they would have seen how good JCN could turn out to be. Maybe GA wouldn't have had to play so many minutes in those first few games? Maybe a shooting guard who could actually shoot could have shortened that 5-game out-of-the-gate losing streak?

Granted, this is all conjecture. If you want facts, ask yourself this: Would you rather have a guard averaging 6 pg on 37%, 3 rbs, 2 assts, and .2 stls or one averaging 9.7 on 47%, 1.5 rbs, 2 assts, and .6 stls in less minutes?

p.s. The Steve Francis comparison is interesting, but a bit unfair to the Wiz. Vancouver was a backwater back then w/ no shot at the playoffs. Also, Vancouver couldn't have afforded to waste their #2 pick, and were therefore forced to trade him. The Wiz, on the other hand, could've sent him back to Madrid faster than JCN could have said "No es bueno."

by jvflail on Nov 25, 2007 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

I will agree

That I wish Ernie was more decisive with JCN. I'm willing to concede that perhaps the threat of going back to Spain could have been made more clear, and generally, I'm surprised Ernie let JCN's people gain the leverage.

But in the end, I really do support his decision. If DeShawn was going to leave, the Wizards should have signed a big guard like Devin Brown, not a small guy like JCN. If we had JCN, our backcourt would have been Gilbert, AD, Mason, Young, and JCN. Tell me, where's the big guard in that spot? Where's the defender?

And defense is part of the game, which is why, even after all of this, I'd still rather have Stevenson. DeShawn's adjusted plus/minus is 2.3, Navarro's is -0.6. When DeShawn is in the game, the Wizards' defensive rating is nearly 15 points better than when he is out. When Navarro is in the game, the Grizzlies' defense is nearly 12 points worse. Point being, I wouldn't look too much into per-game boxscore stats.

My criticism of Grunfeld is that he didn't get enough for Navarro, not that Navarro didn't come here. And I'm not sure how your Francis points helps you -- if he was the #2 pick, wouldn't it have been more important to retain him, as the Bucks did this year with Yi Jianlian? With a role player like JCN, it simply wasn't worth the hassle.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 25, 2007 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

Embrace small ball

There is no answer to your big guard question, but the Spurs do pretty well w/ Ginobli (he's not 6-6) and Parker. The Suns do pretty well with Nash and Bell. The Mavs do pretty well with Terry and Harris. True, we'd be a sivve on D, but we're a sivve anyway.

+- stats are telling (although I'm not sure what an "adjusted +-" is), and I agree it would have been a gigantic gamble to go with JCN. However, no defensive ratings can convince me that this team is solid on D. We may be "less bad" when Stevenson's out there, but we're still bad. And while it's true you can contribute plenty w/out having your efforts show up in a box score, at some point in the NBA, you're gonna have to show up in a box score. I guess my point is that DS is no Bruce Bowen and he won't really help this team until he gets to that level. As for Navarro, he reminds me of Ginobli.

p.s. The Francis stuff was more of an aside. I just can't let any comparison btwn the Wiz and the Grizz stand w/out arguement.
p.p.s I was really hoping that posting on this blog instead of watching the Pats/Birds game would add just the right karma to push the Birds to victory. It almost worked.
p.p.p.s. For the record, I'm not a Birds fan. I just can't stand the Pats.

by jvflail on Nov 25, 2007 11:29 PM EST up reply actions

On adjusted plus/minus

Here's a good description of it.

The point is not that the team is solid defensively (we're talking about a very small sample), but that Stevenson undoubtedly makes them better on that end, and since the offense is already great anyway, why get another offensive player? Harris and Bell are top-notch defenders, which is why the Suns and Mavericks' approach works.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 25, 2007 11:56 PM EST up reply actions

Also

the Spurs have Duncan. Give the Wizards Duncan, KG, even Emeka Okafor, and I'd be a lot more comfortable going small with the guards.

That said, I'll agree on one big point: shooting guards who don't shoot all that well? Not exactly a hot commodity.

by sierradave on Nov 26, 2007 3:25 AM EST up reply actions

p.p.p.p.p.s

I'm still mad about the Skins today.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 25, 2007 11:57 PM EST up reply actions

Hey,

...if you didn't realize JCN was gonna be a Wizards killer, you haven't been a fan of this team for very long. I'm waiting (dreading) for the day when Jarvis drops 30 on us.

That being said, long term, letting JCN go was the smart move. Now, I kinda wish we kept him in Europe (for obvious reasons, now), but I'm glad we got something for him (or did we?).

Yes, he's a polished player, but having him would eat into Nick Young's minutes, and I'm sure everyone here would agree that's a bad thing. It would have been nice to have him - especially now that Gil's out for three months, he'd take care of that "Roger Mason" problem we have, but he's pretty bad defensively (he couldn't guard DeShawn) and that's one thing we're trying to turn around.

The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Nov 25, 2007 10:08 AM EST reply actions

Getting nothing

I'm not especially concerned that JCN torched us last night (it's much more bothersome to me that we let teams light us up from 3-point range). That said, when it became apparent that we weren't going to get him ourselves, I was much more inclined to let him rot in Spain rather than bring him here for virtually no compensation. Think about it: JCN got what he wanted out of the whole deal -- a spot in the NBA playing with his best friend. The Grizz made out even better -- they got a ready-to-play rookie for pretty much no cost to themselves -- the veteran's minimum in salary and a meaningless draft pick that can be deferred to year 3299 unless it's pick #3,456,678, at which point the Wizards are welcome to it. Who got hosed? Us. Seriously, is anyone's imagination captured thinking what stud we're gonna land with that pick?

All that considered, I would have been happier leaving him in Europe. We wasted a not-very-meaningful #2 a half a decade ago -- it was already written off. Wouldn't have hurt any worse to keep getting nothing for it, rather than give a another team something for free.

"Now, obviously individual production does not unilaterally equal better team production, but there's a high level of causation."

by Vanilla Gorilla on Nov 25, 2007 10:47 AM EST reply actions

the problem isn't trading JCN

The problem was signing the unremarkable DS for $15 million. Were there any bidders offering even $12? $9? Shooting guards who don't shoot are not usually hot properties.

by billyjoe on Nov 25, 2007 7:02 PM EST reply actions

Let Us Hope...

... that Memphis uses this impressive win as inspiration to go on a big winning streak and make the playoffs in the West. If that happens, the Wizards might actually see a first round draft pick in next year's draft.

As for the whole "should we have traded JCN?" debate, I think the answer is obvious. The Wizards scored 118 points on 49.5% shooting, including 52.6% from the arc. We don't need a guy who can shoot like JCN, we need a guy who can guard a guy who can shoot like JCN. The Wizards 3-point defense has got to be the worst in the league. I didn't check the numbers, but that is the impression that I get from watching.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Nov 26, 2007 12:09 PM EST reply actions