FanPost

What does the 24-19 stretch mean? (now with season projection poll)

A lot is made of the fact that, over the stretch where the team was relatively healthy (both Wall and Nene on the floor) the Zard's record was 24-19 (55.8%). Projected out over an 82 game season, that would translate to about 46 wins (45.78, to be precise). Does it mean anything?

The standard deviation for this sample is 3.25 games. The 95% confidence interval (two standard deviations above and below the mean of 45.78) is therefore 38 to 52 games. So, if the Zards stay healthy all year, they can be reasonably (95%) sure they'll win between 38 and 52 games.

What's the minimum number of games they can expect to win? Slightly different calculation -- they have a 95% chance of winning at least 40 games.

So it looks like the Zards have a pretty good chance at making the playoffs next year, if they stay healthy, and perhaps a shot at home court advantage. Personally, I have Nene missing 30 games to plantar fasciitis and the Zards only winning 40.

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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