Sorry, the formatting of my previous post was extremely weird, this should look better
This is my list of Ariza trade proposals, listed in the order of my preference. A couple caveats here, first, I wouldn't offer anything more than Ariza + a 2014 2nd rounder for any of these potential deals because I want to preserve our 2014 1st round pick. I think the Wiz should make the playoffs next year so I don't expect the 2014 first rounder to be a lottery pick, but I still believe it has value, and if something terrible happens to the Wiz this year I want the 2014 1st rounder as insurance. The second caveat is that I don't think all of these trades are likely to happen, only that I would offer them at some point. Some of them are long shots, but so what, you never know what can happen.
The timing of when to offer these trades, or any deals for that matter, is another issue entirely. I would love to see someone post on the timing of potential deals and why. I lean towards offering these trades closer to the deadline, for a variety of reasons I won’t get into here.
1a) Ariza + 2014 2nd rounder for Omer Asik
I think this is as close to a no-brainer as there is. A bigs rotation of Asik/Nene/Okafor/Seraphin virtually assures a playoff birth this year and protects the Wiz against an injury to Nene/Okafor. I think the Wiz would retain Asik's Bird rights after the 2014/2015 season and hopefully be able to resign him to a legitimate contending team at that point. He could become a core piece going forward.
Daryl Morey probably wouldn't go for this one but it does offer the Rockets some cap relief next summer that they will not have if they keep Asik. Morey is said to value 2nd rounders, so that might entice him a little. Additionally, the Rockets could play some interesting small-ball lineups this year featuring Lin/Harden/Ariza/Parsons/Howard, a lineup which reminds me a little of the Howard-Orlando team that went to the finals.
1b) Ariza + 2014 2nd rounder for Martin Gortat
Much like the Asik trade I think a bigs rotation of Gortat/Nene/Okafor/Seraphin virtually assures us of a playoff birth this season. Gortat and Ariza's contracts match and Gortat's contract expires after this season. I really like Gortat's contract because we wouldn't be sacrificing any salary cap space going forward. After this season the Wiz could re-sign Okafor or Gortat, whichever one appears to the better option after seeing them play for a whole season. Alternatively, we could let Okafor and Gortat expire along with Vesely/Sing/Booker and carve out some decent cap room for 2014/2015. The reason I'm so high on this deal is because of the flexibility it offers the team going forward. It gives us a lot of ways to make the team better.
Unfortunately this one might also be unlikely. The suns will probably try to shoot for a 2014 1st rounder if they decide to move Gortat. I’m unwilling to do that, but if they shop Gortat at the deadline and can’t get a 1st rounder, this deal isn’t bad for them. They would have the same amount of salary coming off the books next summer and they would gain an asset (2nd rounder in 2014).
2) Ariza for Derrick Williams straight up
I’ve seen this one floating around a few threads. I haven’t seen any reporting indicating that Williams could become available but that doesn’t mean it’s not true.
Williams contract is a not a multiyear deal like Ilyasova’s (see below) Williams is owed $5.3M next year with a team option for $6.7M the following year. In case you haven’t noticed flexibility and aversion to multi-year deals will be a running theme in this post. In case Williams doesn’t work out next year, the Wiz could let him go next summer for cap room. I view Williams as a tweener SF/PF but he is big enough to play the 4 at 6’8" 240. The Wiz would probably ask him to do that next year with Web, Porter and possibly Rice Jr at the 3. His role next year would be to come off the bench and score, something he probably feels comfortable with. Williams is not your prototypical "stretch" 4 because he doesn’t shoot the three that well (33% last year and 30% for his career). He is still young though and could conceivably improve his shooting. The main reason to trade for Williams is potential, he’s only 22 and a former 2nd overall pick in 2011. He is very athletic and still has a fair amount of upside. If the T-Wolves are willing to dump him for an expiring contract, we should pounce.
It’s hard to determine how likely this deal is. It’s not very likely right now because the T-Wolves just singed Budinger and Brewer who will constitute their probable SF rotation next year. If at the deadline however, the T-Wolves are looking to save cap room next summer, they might consider this move, but the difference between Ariza’s $7.8M contract coming off the books in 2014/2015 and declining Williams $6.7M team option for 2014/2015 isn’t that great. You could probably convince me to include a 2014 2nd rounder in this deal but would that be enough of an asset to get Williams? Maybe not.
Finally, I’m not sure if the money works for this potential deal, could the Wiz trade Ariza and his $7.8M cap figure for Williams and his $5.3M cap figure? Does anyone know the answer to this?
3) Ariza for Patrick Patterson + ____?
I was hesitant to include this one because I can’t think of an acceptable way to make it work. Lots of people have suggested Ariza for Patrick Patterson + Chuck Hayes in order to make the money work, but Hayes has a $5.9M cap figure in 2014/2015. No thank you. I don’t want to have to take any salary past this season for an asset like Patterson who I see as a marginal upgrade at best. Yes, Patterson fits the "stretch" 4 mold but I’m not convinced he’s that much better than Seraphin. In fact, I could see Seraphin possibly beating Patterson out for the minutes at the backup four spot. I’m very luke warm on this deal. If there was a way to make this work without taking salary past this season, I’d be open to it. However, I wouldn’t contact the Kings until the deadline and only after we’ve done our due diligence on all the trades listed above and hopefully other deals that I haven’t even thought of. I would shelve this deal for now and put it in the Plan D folder for later.
Unranked: Ariza +2014 2nd rounder for Irsan Ilyasova
This one might be the most popular and most mentioned trade on BF. I decided not to rank it, meaning I wouldn’t make the offer because of Irsan’s contract (3 more years at $7.9M with a team option in the 4th year). I like Irsan’s fit with the team, it makes a lot of sense from that perspective, but as I see it his contract would lock us into a core of Wall/Beal/Web/Porter/Irsan/Nene/Maynor and possibly Oak for at least the next couple of years. I’m not sure if that core is good enough for us to get off the "treadmill of mediocrity", meaning a perennial playoff team with no real chance to contend. Essentially what I’m saying is that I don’t think Irsan is good enough to elevate us to the next level and his contract would hamper us from getting much better in 2014/2015 and beyond. But just so people don’t think I’m being totally dismissive, I did a quick pro and cons list below:
Prototypical stretch 4, great shooter from three, his shooting along with Web, Beal and others would space the floor incredibly well for Wall and our bigs to operate in the lane, Wall and others would get him lots of open looks, rebounds the ball very well he is more than just a shooter, his rebounding skills demonstrate he isn’t a soft outside player like Novak or Frye, there is tangible physicality to his game, his skill set would be a nearly ideal fit with the current roster, only 26 years old
Hasn’t demonstrated the ability to create his own shot, dependent on others to get looks, disappears for stretches or games at a time, does not have a strong defensive reputation, potential to be a one way player, he was the 4th best player on a fringe playoff team last year, Bucks seem to regret his contract which is one reason he might be available, he is overpaid and his contract is a multi-year commitment.
Unranked: Ariza + almost anything it would take for Aldridge
This one is extremely hypothetical and speculative so I didn’t think it should be ranked. It’s essentially dependent on POR being bad next year (which I don’t think they will be) and then deciding to move LMA around the deadline. Both of those possibilities are unlikely so I won’t waste any more words on this one.
Feel free to call me an idiot and tell me why I'm wrong!