Sports books tend to know what they're doing (they're in business to make money off others' sports ignorance), so the lines they set are generally worthy of consideration.
The online sports book Bovada offers some interesting insights in the odds it has established for prop bets regarding Thursday's NBA draft. Bovada has Nerlens Noel as the most likely #1 pick, at 4/7 odds. Somewhat surprisingly, Alex Len is next at 3/2 odds. The site considers Ben McLemore (7/1), Victor Oladipo (10/1) and Otto Porter (12/1) much less likely top picks.
Oddly, Len isn't even listed in their odds for the second and third pick. He reappears in their odds as the second-most likely #4 pick.
Many folks here may take comfort in that Bovada considers Porter to be the most likely #3 pick.