With the recent hype surrounding the Wizards, I, like others, began to wonder what it would take for the Wizards to actually make the playoffs. I wanted to see the Wizard's likelihood of winning each of the remaining games, and thus played with some numbers. I will explain the numbers and methods I used, but I want to first let everyone reading this post know that the numbers calculated and used is more for a general guess than an accurate one.
Originally I was thinking of adding a lot of different things into the equation, like last 10 game point differentials and last 5 game match up record, but I realized a lot of these are flawed (depending on team style and situation), so I took them out. Attempting to mathematically predict sports outcome is outrageous from the first place anyway, and this is after all just to give a general idea.
Equation: (.35*Wizards last 10 Home/Away winning%)+(.15*Wizards overall Home/Away winning%)+(1-Opponent last 10 Home/Away winning% *.35)+(1-Opponent overall Home/Away winning% *.15)
Since the purpose was to just get a general idea, I simply looked at the records. I tried to incorporate a team's hotness by putting more emphasis on the last 10 game records. Below is the remaining schedule for the Wizards, and the percentage calculated by the equation above.
|vs New York||0.55|
|vs New Orleans||0.65|
|@ LA Lakers||0.36|
|@ Golden State||0.27|
|@ New York||0.38|
Wizards expected record from now on: 16-16
Chance Wizards win 26 games
(number of games needed to win to reach .500) <1%
That would put the Wizards at 31-51. Comparing that record to the last full regular season (2010-2011 NBA season), it would put us at 8th on the lottery. That would likely be out of reach for Alex Len, Anthony Bennett, basically most of the prospects that's been discussed. Wizard's 2013 draft pick Otto Porter??