FanPost

Zards countdown to .500 update (2/12/13)

After starting out February with two road losses to Memphis and San Antonio, the Zards have won four in a row. Their chances at reaching the playoffs are now, let's say, mathematically slim. But I'm a glass is half full kinda guy...

The good news is that the zards are not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The bad news is that they need to win more than 80% of their remaining 32 games (26-6, winning five games for every one they lose) to reach .500. With a little help from their friends they might squeak into the playoffs with 39 or even 38 wins -- at 38 wins they'd have to go 23-9, a 72% pace (in other words, be one of the top four teams in the league). The zard's record with Wall in the lineup is 10-7, so that doesn't seem terribly likely, although Beal was injured for 11 of those games (and six of the losses). Suppose Beal's health contributed to two of those losses (if Beal makes just one of the three three pointers he missed and two of the four free throws he missed against Utah; if Beal had made JUST ONE MORE FRIGGIN' BASKET against Sacto...), then the team's record could have been 12-5, good for 70%. Maybe this is a 70% team (at least for the short stretches of the season where everyone is healthy!).

Half of their next 32 games are on the road. This is where things get really dicey. Winning on the road is really, really hard, even for the best teams (the four best teams right now - Miami, SA, OKC, and the Clips - have a combined 64-42 road record, good for only 60%!). The best possible scenario is that they win out at home, only needing to go 10-6 on the road to get to .500 ( or 7-9 to get to 38 wins).

What they really need to do now is go on a ten game winning streak, which is a little more believable, although requiring them to win the next four straight road games -- at Detroit (currently 20-33), Toronto (19-32), Minnesota (19-30), and Brooklyn (30-22), plus they'd have to beat Denver and New York at home. That would put them at 25-35 with 22 games left to play, only needing to go 16-6 the rest of the way to get to .500 (and only 13-9 to get to 38 wins). They'd have 12 road games left at that point and could get to .500 by winning out at home and winning half of their remaining road games.

Do I think this is going to happen? Let me put it this way -- if they lose again at home, especially in the next ten games, I would say their chances go from slim to wishful thinking. Check in with me again on March 9...

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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