Disappointingly, there's been much doom and gloom around these parts. Despite picking up what looks like a bonafide second star; despite adding pieces that should make us competitive on a nightly basis while making us a legitimate playoff contender for the first time in several years.
But nevermind all that, because the focus here is exclusively on Kevin Seraphin, who has the chance to become the genuine "3rd Star" many clamor for and believe we will not/cannot acquire. It is of the opinion of this poster that Seraphin can become the next Nene - a borderline All-Star - though tougher and better defensively. A statistical comparison, after the jump.
Looking at Seraphin's and Nene's 2nd seasons in the league. All stats courtesy basketball-reference.com.
PER 36 -- Nene -- Seraphin
PPG -- 13.1 -- 13.9
TRB -- 7.2 -- 8.6
AST -- 2.4 -- 1.0
STL -- 1.7 -- 0.6
BLK -- 0.6 -- 2.3
FG% -- .530 -- .531
FT% -- .682 -- .671
FGA -- 9.1 -- 11.7
ADVANCED STATS -- Nene -- Seraphin
PER -- 14.8 -- 15.8
True Shooting Percentage -- .578 -- .549
Offensive Rebounding% -- 6.8 -- 9.8
Defensive Rebounding% -- 16.0 -- 17.1
Total Rebounding% -- 11.3 -- 13.4
Assist % -- 10.7 -- 4.8
Usage% -- 17.0 -- 18.2
Block % - 1.2 -- 5.0
Turnover% - 18.9 -- 13.8
WS/48 - .117 -- .094
Offensive Rating (estimate of points produced per 100 possessions)
Nene - 106
Seraphin - 105
Nene - 102
Seraphin - 105
Seraphin, it's worth noting, had a +10 improvement in offensive rating, and -5 improvement defensively between his 1st and 2nd years, both greater than Nene's (+6, +3 respectively).
It's also worth noting that Seraphin shot the 2nd highest percentage on hook shots this season.
Across the board, Seraphin's numbers compare favorably to Nene's in their respective 2nd seasons. It's true Nene had more responsibility in his second year (averaging more than 10 more minutes per game), though his development was later stunted by only starting 61 games over his next 4 years. It's unlikely that Seraphin will suffer the same health misfortune.
Seraphin gets to continue to grow as the first big off the bench, gain confidence and develop on both ends of the court. I don't think it's unlikely that Seraphin matures into a highly effective, starting-caliber big in the league; his PER is already above-average.
There's been much lamentation, at least before the draft, that Grunfeld has put us in a position where we might only have "1 star" - I submit that Seraphin could develop into a worthy 3rd or 4th best player on a championship team, if we continue to be patient. Which is one of the benefits of having Nene and Okafor on the team. Really, we couldn't find much better bigs for him to learn from.
Seraphin looks like he will be a tougher, better rebounding and shotblocking forward than Nene, though likely not as adept a playmaker for others on the offensive end. Better defensively while being comparably as efficient on offense -- Seraphin met yet blossom into a genuine star.
Simply something to keep in mind as trade scenarios are discussed and Seraphin is casually included among the Crawford/Singleton/Booker-type level of young players that we have. That ESPN didn't even include Seraphin in the "key backups" graphic on draft night is asinine. Perhaps Seraphin is even the key young player that nets us a Superstar in a trade in a couple of years, our Al Jefferson. Or maybe he develops into a core piece of a contending team. In any case, the future remains bright for ManBearPig.