Jordan Crawford's Bad Season, By The Numbers
When we last talked extensively about Jordan Crawford, it was in the summer, and it was in this matter.
Crawford is capable of scoring in bunches. He can shoot open shots. He can handle the ball and make plays. He can fight on defense. He can exhibit a sort of fearlessness that wakes up the whole team. But at this point, does he do any of those things especially well within a team setting? Will he ever specialize enough to do any of those things at an elite level? At this point, the jury is still out.
More generally, the obvious critique was this: sure, he has skills, but can he play off others, or can he only succeed when he's given free reign to dribble around and shoot? One third of a way through his second season, and it doesn't look good.
Wiz of Awes, a fledging Wizards site like ours, did a fine post today pointing out just how absurd it is that Crawford takes so many bad shots. Here are some sobering numbers to keep things in perspective.
Since the advent of the three-point line, only 21 other players have shot the ball over 11 times a game while playing less than 23 minutes a game. Basically, Jordan Crawford is a chucking machine. Only 22 players since then have shot that often in that little amount of time (chart below). Crawford is having the worst success of all of them.
The only player period to shoot as frequently and as poorly in as few minutes in NBA history is the immortal Woody Sauldsberry in 1961. So yeah, it's bad.
Strangely enough, due to the Wizards' lack of offensive options, Crawford doesn't kill them offensively. (That's not to defend Crawford's ways, of course). Defensively, though, is a mess, if his plus/minus numbers are any indication (via Basketball Value).
In layman's terms:
- The Wizards' defensive efficiency when Crawford is in the game is 111.57. Their defensive efficiency when Crawford is out of the game is 100.45. That's a difference of 11.2 points per 100 possessions. That's a lot.
- Though Crawford isn't a net negative offensively, the Wizards are only 3.21 points/100 possessions better with him on the court.
- Therefore, the Wizards are overall about eight points worse/100 possessions with Crawford on the court this season.
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I was going to look today to pull some shots per minute numbers on Crawford...
thanks for saving me the time! Pretty much exactly how I thought it would look…
by Maroon and Black on Feb 14, 2012 2:10 PM EST reply actions
That list of chuckers isn't really fair to Crawford
It’s so tailored to Crawford’s stats (22.9 minutes and 11.1 shots) that it says more about the preconditions of the study than Crawford’s play. It would be much better to use parameters that make Crawford the midpoint rather than the extreme edge of the group. Plus, it’s only 24 games into the season and he’s being compared to people who played a whole season.
Basically, my argument is that Crawford has been awful this season, but unless you use some statistical slight of hand, he can’t rival Toney Douglas’s 2012 season (21.3 min, 9.6 FGA, 32%!!! shooting) in historical awfulness.
by Scizzy on Feb 14, 2012 2:14 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
And despite my criticism
thanks for linking Wiz of Awes. I hadn’t heard of the site, but after glancing at the recent posts it looks very promising.
This is true
Only thing I’d say is I doubt Crawford’s season looks that much better if you extend the parameters out a bit.
It doesn't really make me feel better when the argument is
that he isn’t having THE worst season ever, more like top-5 worst, or whever the numbers may be. And really, we wouldn’t want Toney Douglas on the team either.
Let Crawford have his small victories
He is better than Toney Douglas! And probably Mike Bibby! And maybe Rasual Butler and Wesley Johnson! Obviously he’d never play a minute on a decent team, but Crawford is just a very bad player right now, not historically awful or anything. Mack should probably be getting half his minutes.
Of the Wizard players he would of benefited the most from being assigned to the D-League.
But since that didn’t happen I’m hoping he finds another home by next season.
See I dont think so,
I think in the D-League his Chuckford mentality would get hammered in even further. He needs remedial level coaching against NBA level talent IMO
by Maroon and Black on Feb 14, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but
I think in the D-League he could go all green-light chuck machine and probably actually help the team. You could provide the same teaching while also teaching him to do it against real NBA talent if you just coached him correctly w/ the real team
by Maroon and Black on Feb 14, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
You are assuming that there are D-League Coaches that allow unfettered selfish play
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
The best thing Crawford has going for him is...
Nick Young. If only this team had a legitimate team player at the 2-spot, it would make a big difference. I think Crawford is horrible. I would HATE playing with him and feel bad for guys like Shelvin Mack and Chris Singleton who should be getting all of Crawford’s minutes
Which brings me to the question of why is Whitman continuing to play Crawford so much?
You think Ted is telling Whitman who should get playing time?
If that is happening, then I will cease to be a wizards fan immediately.
Ted has definitely told him to play the young guys
Given the roster, that means Crawford has to get at least five or ten minutes a game.
The best thing JC has going for him is EG traded for him. And EG does not admit mistakes easily or often
ironic as the long standing GM of a perennially shitty franchise, i know
by les boulez bomber on Feb 14, 2012 8:25 PM EST up reply actions
Signed for next year too
Ernie extended him.
by ReturnofBillyJOe on Feb 14, 2012 2:31 PM EST reply actions
ernie didn't extend him
he’s still on his rookie contract. in any case, he only makes $1.1M next year which is not really a factor
He extended him
In that picking up a contract option is an “extension”. The contract didn’t HAVE to be in effect next year, EG made it be in effect next year. To be fair, if EG didn’t do that, most folk would have gone bonkers over the summer.
He was a first-round pick (27th by the Hawks) in 2010
By trading for him, we took on his rookie contract (which is a 3-year deal). there is no team option until year 4
First 2 years are guaranteed
Several players from that class will be UFAs next year – Daniel Orton, James Anderson, and Damion James( I think).
however, there is little EG can do about it now...
on the other hand, Whitman can leave him at the end of the bench.
When Mo was talking about players who aren't rotation players on any other team
He was talking about Chuckford.
by ReturnofBillyJOe on Feb 14, 2012 2:33 PM EST reply actions
I wondered last season whether part of Crawford's success
was the fact that he started getting minutes in the middle of the season and was just fresher than the rest of the league’s players, who were run down by having played 40+ games at that point. (I wonder the same thing now about Jeremy Lin.)
This season Crawford didn’t have that advantage.
I hope not
It’s a great story for a good kid
Who won? Who lost? Who cares?! The NBA is Back! - David Aldridge
What seems to be the officer, problem? - Randy Marsh
by Dutch Hoopfan on Feb 14, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
why is he a "good kid"?
Unless everyone in the NBA is a “good kid.”
by Kenny Sky Walker on Feb 14, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
he is very humble, thankful, helpful and people like him. that is what makes him a good kid
by les boulez bomber on Feb 14, 2012 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and I believe that we don't know any of that, but...
He mentioned god a few times, so everyone thinks he’s a saint. And humble sounds like a stereotype. Plus people “like him” as you said because he’s smaller than most of the other guys on the court (David vs. Goliath), and he does those shoulder bumps and wags his tongue. There’s no reason to assume he’s any more of a “good kid” than any of the rest of the NBA players. A lot of “not good kids” mention god a lot too.
by Kenny Sky Walker on Feb 14, 2012 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I don't know him so I can't tell for sure
But he comes across as a nice, friendly, humble dude who took a long, long road to the NBA without giving up.
As a player he is exciting to watch and comes across as sympathetic guy
Who won? Who lost? Who cares?! The NBA is Back! - David Aldridge
What seems to be the officer, problem? - Randy Marsh
by Dutch Hoopfan on Feb 15, 2012 5:35 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I dont think its fresher legs
I think if anything it was the fear of being out of the league, I mean this is a guy who got traded to the Wizards….if it doesnt work out here it might not work out anywhere. And he played those games last year maybe almost like a contract year, played very well and within himself, the way NY should play. Jury is still out on he guy, i like his potential, gritty disposition (scarred by his sense of own personal greatness), but he also just makes 1.1 mil, which is a bargain and if he doesnt play well, he can sit its as simple as that
And personally i think Cartier Martin should be the 2 guard option atm.
Im just saying he would be a breathe of fresh air at 2 atm
Cuz he does all the things that are currently the bane of Wiz fans, like he wont take bad shots, and he plays hard all the time, and he’s also a great defensive communicator
by KurisuDevil on Feb 14, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not necessarily
Wizards can’t make a move on him right now even if they wanted to because he’s still under contract in China.
Bullets Forever: Waiting for the Fat Lady to sing since 2006. | @jakewhitacre
by Jake Whitacre on Feb 14, 2012 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
The only player period to shoot as frequently and as poorly in as few minutes in NBA history is the immortal Woody Sauldsberry in 1961. So yeah, it’s bad.
Someone asked if anybody could name 1 Wizard in team history with a worse shot selection than Crawford, earlier today in one of the other threads. Now we know.
The awnser is: No one. There’s only 1 player in the entire history of the NBA.
Who won? Who lost? Who cares?! The NBA is Back! - David Aldridge
What seems to be the officer, problem? - Randy Marsh
one BACKUP player
Not a big difference just pulling your chain :)
by Maroon and Black on Feb 14, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
What's ledell?
Who won? Who lost? Who cares?! The NBA is Back! - David Aldridge
What seems to be the officer, problem? - Randy Marsh
by Dutch Hoopfan on Feb 14, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
2nd round pick of the Bullets in 1988 with a bit of a portly physique
Ledell Eakles
He provided instant offense off of the bench but makes Nick Young look like Ricky Rubio in terms of assists.
My former screen name
and the biggest chucker in Wizards history
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
definitely the 'biggest'
"hindsight is 50-50" - Steve Spurrier
by little stevie colter on Feb 14, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Ledell was a much better player and personality than Crawford
I was really hopeful after his cameo last season that Crawford would wind up being a keeper, but he has regressed to the point that his entry into the game is a groan inducer.
I suppose there is still a chance that Crawford will come around, but right now things just do not look good for him… which is why I think the team is in a real bind vis-a-vis Nick because by the end of last season management was clearly working under the assumption that Crawford was going to surpass him.
management was clearly working under the assumption that Crawford was going to surpass him.
Another epic fail by Grunfeld and Company…
And let’s be fair, it wouldn’t take much this year to surpass Young… and Crawford has not only NOT surpassed Young, but he’s tanked so badly that he makes Young look like an All-Star by comparison.
Crawford is a terribly inefficient shooter. So bad last year (45% True Shooting Percentage) that I thought there was no way to go but up… and then JC proved me wrong (again) with a 44% TSP this year…
He shouldn’t be taking ANY three point shots per game when he’s only shooting 27% … (He’s shooting 3 per game)… Opposing teams should just let him have those shots… it helps their team when he shoots them. And he shouldn’t be taking more than 11 shots per game (at 36% from the field)… that just means he’s taking shots away from more efficient scorers (McGee at 52%, Booker at 57%, – and even John Wall, 45% over his last 10 games)…
I swear, if he EVER gets to the point that he understands the difference between a good shot and a bad shot, he could become a pretty good 6th man
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Come on
Ledell played for the team, like, yesterday. We need some sense of Bullets history.
by Kenny Sky Walker on Feb 14, 2012 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Back in the day, for about 15 minutes
Ledell was a reason to be excited about the bullets. Last season was Jordan’s 15 minutes for the wiz. Don’t think he is a keeper.
Ledell could hit some crazy shots, especially for ahem an almost portly player.
Sorry Kenny
I only started following the Wiz when MJ joined. I live in the Netherlands you know. Plus I was just done wetting my diaper when he got drafted.
Who won? Who lost? Who cares?! The NBA is Back! - David Aldridge
What seems to be the officer, problem? - Randy Marsh
by Dutch Hoopfan on Feb 15, 2012 5:39 AM EST up reply actions
Look on the bright side
Jordan Crawford is shooting 35.9%. In the history of the franchise, only one player has played more than 7 games in a season, had more than 8 field goal attempts a game, and shot worse. That was Josh Howard last year at 35.8%. Crawford is now getting Howard’s minutes. IMPROVEMENT!!!
by Scizzy on Feb 14, 2012 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What happened to the moves to the hoop?
Last year, it was apparent that he did not have 3-point range but kept heaving them up from out there, and while he showed an OK mid-range jumper that was not the heart of his game. What turned heads were his wonderful moves around the basket that had Steve and Phil several times mention Earl Monroe. What I can’t understand this season is where that went. (Nor why he has the green light to shoot the 3.)
the stat geeking can twist things all sorts of ways
what my eyes tell me are simple. Crawford and Nick Young have been terrible. Just dreadful.
Crawford has no concept of what sorta shots he’s good at or should be taking sort of like Nick Young till Flip focused him on the sorta shots he needed to be taking.
its still funny though that Crawford gets almost 3 times the amount of assists that Nick Young gets in almost 10 less minutes of pt per game.
so if Crawford is having a horrendous year Nick’s is as bad or worse because he still refuses to pass and is shooting worse than last season.
these 2 are a big reason for the Wizards struggles.
its still funny though that Crawford gets almost 3 times the amount of assists that Nick Young gets in almost 10 less minutes of pt per game.
You do realize you’re saying the above post is stat-geeking, then citing a stat, right?
by Mike Prada on Feb 14, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not saying it as a diss of the breakdown
just saying it in the sense that some super indepth numbers analysis an distort whts really happening with a player thats why I;m not sold on +- .
and yeah I did sorta stat geek myself there lol but a nominally held stat thats always used relative to player production is noteworthy percentage of this and that per 100 possesions is super in depth.
but yeah you got me.
They're all tools that can help provide a full picture of what's happened
It’s just as valid as anything one would say, all part of evaluating the big picture.
well I agree if thats your thing
but to me the big picture can be seen quite plainly with the naked eye Crawford is a talented player playing very poorly and most of the time out of control with no real sense of how to affect the game without doing everything very inefficiently.
3 times the amount of assists that Nick Young
And looking solely at assists as a positive without looking at Crawford’s turn overs – 47th in the League for Shooting Guards (Young is 10th best)….
True shooting percentage – Crawford is one of the worst SG’s in the entire League (67th)…
Great, he gets 3 assists a game while giving the ball BACK to the opposition double that because of his turn overs, and terrible shot selection.
Young has not been good this year, but Crawford (despite his HUGE 3 assists per game) has been absolutely horrible.
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
I'm really just disappointed in Craw
the only thing that makes me not upset is the fact that he is isnt eating up cap space and he isnt being lethargic, but thats as far as the patience goes. Where is the guy that had the Hawks fans calling for their GM’s head for trading him. I see glimpses that he still exists.
This season of his almost reminds of a friend who’s new to a group, so at first all he does is try to fit in and make everyone happy, but then after some time goes by and he’s been accepted in the group, then you see him emerge as a selfish guy who goes out for his own a lot.
Im not convinced all is lost, benching and maturity with time might shore up most the issues and a new coaching staff thats gonna get on his case for bad play, but…the word is disappointed, thats really all that comes to mind
not ready to give up on crawford (quite yet)
I agree he’s been terrible, although until the Detroit relapse, he seemed to me to be playing better, and taking fewer bad shots, in the past couple of weeks.
I’m not unhappy he’s under contract (for a low number) for one more year. Let’s remember that the guy sat on the bench with ATL for most of his rookie year — he’s really only been on the floor for significant minutes for half a season or so. And unlike NY, he doesn’t look like a one-trick pony — he’s capable of doing a lot of things well.
David Thorpe, who I respect, recently wrote a column ranking the NBA sophomores, and had Crawford 13th, just behind Landry Fields. Here’s what he said:
“Crawford is a blur on the court, slowing down only long enough to shoot the ball, which he does lot. He may not be making many shots now, but he’s someone to keep an eye on. As the Wizards mature, his efficiency should grow, because when he learns to slow down and read, the game will become much easier for him.”
Maybe it will; maybe it won’t. Again, no denying he’s been mostly awful this year. But I don’t yet think he’s hopeless.
by Newjamarcus on Feb 14, 2012 4:16 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
This is how I feel.
Crawford frustrates the hell out of me, no doubt, but the kid has skills. He actually has pretty good court vision – when he chooses to use it.
I personally think his upside is a Jason Terry type, provided he works on his 3-point shot and chooses his spots (a lot) better.
The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.
by mamemimo on Feb 14, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Looked up both of their predraft measurements at DraftExpress
Obviously Nick’s lost some athleticism this year but still.
Nick: 3/4 court sprint-3.25 sec Lane agility-11 sec
Jordan: 3/4 court sprint-3.37 sec Lane agility-11.03 sec
Here’s some info about the lane agility test
Its simple
Crawford has talent can with his skills can do anything but it is ALL mental with him right now. He will not last long in this league if he doesnt get his head on straight
He get's put in when down 15
every time, all the time after it’s clear Nick’s not hitting.
The stats don’t lie- he’s been pretty bad but this weird season so far is tough to call statistically a decent cross section.
i really dont like when coaches do that, but there is no other choice really
But when you have a young player, and you sub him in for a starter who’s struggling; Its so very easy for that subbed in player to say to himself “OK, i got subbed in cuz X-Player is doing badly, im only in right now cuz coach wants to me to turn this around, so its on ME, and I need to fix this”
I love a steady rotation of mins where guys know when they are gonna come in, kinda like Odom in LA. But even still, its important for Craw to understand that just b/c u get subbed in cuz of bad play, that doesnt mean u get the green light to try and do w/e u can to fix it
I think what I'm really wondering is?
What happened? Normally players improve on their rookie season. Crawford seems to be going backwards.
1) Did the system change?
2) Did he develop bad habits this offseason?
3) Can he be salvaged?
Looking at those numbers, it seems he needs to put dramatic effort in improving his defense numbers. If he could get his defensive numbers up, I could see him warranting more playing time to work through his offensive troubles. Right now, I think he needs to play sparingly till he works his way out of the funk.
Last year he didn't just have a green light, he had like a long street with 4 or 5 green lights in a row
Because we had nobody who could score. This year while trying to run a real offense, his playing time has decreased, and its almost like he is trying to prove his worth by scoring as much as he can, as fast as he can. He is just not, at all, playing within the flow of the game, with the game not running through him as much maybe he just doesn’t feel it. Like he is trying to audition for some awesome starting job here next year when NY leaves instead of just adjusting and trying to learn the scoring-sub role.
This is not a good sign for a person who projects as a good “sixth man” type player. More alarming, frankly, is the defensive information. 11 pts per 100 possessions is magnificently awful. You could be LeBron offensively and adding 11 points per 100 would almost negate you.
I think he can be salvaged, or maybe just want to believe he can. But watching him at this point is downright painful. Some of that regression just HAS to be coaching though.
by Maroon and Black on Feb 14, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
When he's hot he's hot
When he’s not he’s not.
I think he needs to sit for 2 or 3 games and slow his game down when he gets back in.
He seems to be going twice as fast as he’s thinking.
He did show some promise last season.
Everyone of his recent shots give me the shivers when it leaves his hand.
C’mon Jordon.
by VBfan on Feb 14, 2012 5:11 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
give him a break...he's talented but over confident...
he’ll come back down to earth as he matures…
we got a whole team of selfish players…
"Horse" Crawford
Probably the best court vision on the franchise since Strickland.
He clearly has basketball IQ. It’s baffling that he so often chooses to ignore common sense.
He needs some real tough love and a short leash from his coach. Everything that is wrong with him is correctable. Although being in a locker room with so many similar under-thinkers won’t help.
by MR on Feb 14, 2012 8:16 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Last season, I had a lot of hope for Crawford
But this season he has been absolutely painful to watch. His shot selection is just dreadful. I am not saying we should trade him right now but I can’t see him playing here that long if he doesn’t show any significant improvement soon.
Interesting that this is written
Interesting that Mike wrote this on a day when Crawford shot 9 for 16 and had 4 assists and 3 steals. Maybe all Jordan needs is for BF to post critical articles about him before every game.
By the way, I have to take issue with Mike’s statement that “what’s become clear is that Crawford, like many of the other players on the roster, has not been able to build on his rookie season.” What other second year players are we talking about? Wall? Booker? Seraphin? And if Mike didn’t mean our second year players, who is he referring to? I can’t imagine he believes that McGee or Young haven’t improved since their rookie seasons. In fact, the only player on a roster who has clearly regressed since his rookie season is Lewis and it took him about 10 years to start regressing. Odd comment by Mike.
Well have 5 sophomore's and only 1 has 'build on his rookie season'
.
Jimmy Franchise: His numbers are down and his play is as well. One could say he is getting better lately but I would argue that his is merely getting back to his rookie level.
Chuckford: Prada said it all
Grown Ass Man: He is the 1 who seems to improve on his already solid rookie season.
ManBearPig: Abysmal rookie season, abysmal sophomore season
H: got cut
Who won? Who lost? Who cares?! The NBA is Back! - David Aldridge
What seems to be the officer, problem? - Randy Marsh
by Dutch Hoopfan on Feb 15, 2012 7:14 AM EST up reply actions
Can't Agree
Wall is playing at a level right now that exceeds what he did last season. Yes, he started slowly. But over the last 15-20 games, he’s taken a marked leap in almost every aspect of his game, particularly his floor generalship. His numbers may be down overall this season because of his slow start (although I bet not by much) but his play is absolutely at a higher level these past few weeks.
Seraphin is far from an accomplished player but he’s shown more effectiveness and control this season and has, consequently, is making a greater contribution to the team.
Hamedy was never given a chance either season so it’s hard to say.
And then there’s Booker who we both agree has made major strides this season.
So, by my measure, three of our four second year players who actually played for us have shown improvement in their games this season. And even Crawford has shown potential for growth, as indicated by his controlled play last night.

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