While I'm not a huge fan of Dave Berri's "Wins Produced" metric, I must say the Wizards current numbers line up pretty well with what I've seen so far this year. Here's a link :http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/was
For those unfamiliar, Berri uses some fancy math to create "Wins per 48 minutes" statistic, a handy-dandy number designed to show how much each player contributes toward victory in a full game. The average W48 is 0.1 (meaning that five average players, per 48 minutes, would create half a win, or a 41-41 record over the course of the season).
The Wizards stats conform with what we've all been seeing: Booker has been really good; Singleton is off to a promising start as a rookie; JaVale's brings a lot of good things with him, despite his lapses; and as for everyone else, ugh. Wall is actually just into negative territory -- oof.
Anyway, stipulating that these numbers are meaningful (and that's an open question), there are a couple of very interesting results, in my opinion.
1. While starting Singleton over Lewis would help the Wizards, starting Booker over Blatche would help VASTLY more. Booker's number is actually at an All-Star level (granted, that's in limited minutes, and it's not clear he could sustain that); Blatche has been as unspeakably awful as our eyes tell us.
2. Indeed, the best thing we can do is to keep Blatche and Crawford off the court at all costs. They are doing enormous damage to our prospects for winning (unlike, say, Lewis, who is more or less a warm body who contributes nothing but doesn't actively screw up).
3. Turiaf's injury really hurts. He brings a lot in limited minutes; needless to say, Seraphim doesn't.
Anyway, I thought this was at least interesting food for thought -- take a look and see what you think.


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