Pumping the Brakes On Javale McGee's Improvement
by TheSecretWeapon on Jan 18, 2012 2:13 PM EST
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PrintEditor's Note: Kevin Broom has written for Real GM and the Washington Post's Box Seats blog, as well as occasionally commenting and contributing to Bullets Forever. He sent me this piece on JaVale McGee that follows. Thanks to Kevin for providing the insight. -Mike
Many Wizards fans are excited about the play of Javale McGee. The general sentiment is this: McGee has improved and he's still young. The action they want: The Wizards need to lock him up now rather than risk seeing him leave in free agency.
Evidence to support the "he's improved" claim usually includes:
- an expanded offensive repertoire -- specifically the hook and the post-up series
- better rebounding, and
- leading the league in blocked shots.
I am not here to terminate all talk of a McGee extension. He has otherworldly physical ability, and I've seen signs of development when I watch the games. I think he's getting better.
But, there's enough evidence to suggest that pumping the brakes on contract talks would be a wise course of action for the Wizards.
While he is doing more offensively, he's never been less efficient at the offensive end. His offensive rating (points produced per 100 individual possessions) stands at 98 -- one of the better marks on the team, but well below the league average (about 102.6). Part of this is turnovers (the highest turnover rate of his career), but the bigger part is awful free throw shooting (45.7% from the line so far this season).
The free throw shooting is cause for concern because both his percentage and his per minute free throw attempts have dropped every season of his career so far.
While his overall percentage from the floor is adequate thus far, the numbers at Hoopdata show that he still hasn't developed an effective shot at any range beyond point-blank. This season, McGee is shooting 68% at the rim -- but from 3 feet or more, just 31.7%. At that conversion rate, there's no reason for him to take a shot unless he's at the rim.
So, that's offense. On the defensive end, folks have been getting excited about the blocked shots. And they are spectacular. The problem: in his zeal to block shots, McGee too often fails to make basic plays that good centers manage routinely. For example, on dribble penetration McGee often crouches in the background and attempts to spring out to get the block. The right play -- the one Tim Duncan makes -- is to step over quickly and impede the penetrator's path to the basket. Force a tough shot or a pass and let the blocked shot come as a result of presence and positioning, not just athleticism.
In addition, McGee's lust for blocks leads to excessive goaltending calls. McGee has eight so far this season -- about one goaltend for every five blocks. Next on the list is Dwight Howard with five -- about one goaltend for nine blocks.
And, the possession-by-possession data compiled by Synergy rates McGee as the team's WORST man defender -- despite all the blocked shots.
Finally, the on/off data is worrisome. Despite McGee's much-ballyhooed improvement, the team has been far worse when he's been on the floor. The data at Basketball Value shows the team being outscored by 20 points per 100 possessions when McGee is on the floor vs. being outscored by 3.5 points when he's on the bench. That's a whopping 16.5-point differential.
When McGee has been on the floor, the on/off data suggests the team has been much worse at both ends of the court.
Are these signs definitive? No, of course not. It's still early in the season, and I'd expect those on/off numbers to moderate as more games are recorded. Maybe he's just on a cold streak from the free throw line. Maybe he'll start "getting it" on defense. Maybe the offensive efficiency and shooting percentage will climb as he continues implementing his still-developing offensive repertoire.
But, maybe he's a human highlight reel that just won't make enough of the "routine" plays to anchor a winning team. Maybe he's the definition of "empty stats" -- a guy who posts some gaudy numbers that get attention, but always for a loser.
My point here is not to say McGee will or won't "get it." My point is that there's evidence to suggest he hasn't "gotten it" yet. So, there's no reason to rush into a contract extension with him. The Wizards have plenty of cap and roster space, plus the right to match any contract offer he receives. The smart move is to wait, watch and evaluate. There's little to gain -- and potentially much to lose -- by making a decision now.
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This is what I been trying to explain, but people here are enamored by inflated personal stats……
by WAAAAALL-E on Jan 18, 2012 2:21 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Who is the recommended replacement?
In any event, he isn’t going to accept an extension here so it is kind of moot…
why do you say that??
Only when guys off the rookie deals are completely lowballed (eg, NY or BGordon) does that happen, and even then they sign the one year QO.
by Kenny Sky Walker on Jan 18, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
Very well-written
I agree with everything. Dude is too enamored with blocks and highlight dunks over defensive footwork and rebounding positioning
by jsuh0 on Jan 18, 2012 2:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Well said. I agree with all of the points made
"I wear tinted visor not to trick other players, but so hot girls in stands don't see me looking at them" - Alex Ovechkin
by sami426 on Jan 18, 2012 2:26 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Kevin should also compare the Crappy Forwards JaVale has to play with, compared to the rest of the league
When your the only low post player because the PF is playing 18’ away it kills JaVale.
by jmpalomo on Jan 18, 2012 2:44 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Isn't that what
Dwight Howard was when they went to the finals?
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
by CJHutch on Jan 18, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
As a matter of fact
When you’re a dominant post player, that’s what you need. Gives you space.
I don’t know if that’s what Javale needs or not. But if you’re going to argue he does need another great post player beside him, then you might be arguing he’s not as good as some people say he is.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
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by returnofswagger on Jan 18, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ding ding ding
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
The value of JaVale's post game
A great, great, great post player is obviously a foundational piece to a dynasty, and it’s pretty easy to build a team around a building block like that. But how great is great enough to be such a piece, and what are JaVale’s chances of reaching that level? In my opinion, only the really, really, really great post players are good enough to build a championship-winning team around in this fashion. Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem, maybe Yao if he could have stayed healthy. Not David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, or Dwight Howard. Multiple championship winners like Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol aren’t good enough. (Hold on. We’ll get to them in the next paragraph.) I don’t see JaVale ever getting close to making the cut.
Integrating a merely excellent or very good post game into a varied offensive attack isn’t easy either. When a player posts up, it clogs things up for the rest of the offense. Slashers and inside-outside players can easily morph into jump shooters (and usually crappy ones at that). Your post player needs to be really good at picking his spots, and he needs to be able to make his teammates better from the post. You need great basketball IQ, court vision, and passing ability. Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol were key cogs in championship teams thanks to their combination of post moves and passing ability. Vlade Divac obviously wasn’t as good in the post as those two, but his passing ability allowed him to also be an essential piece on a contender. Current players who might have the necessary combination of post moves and bball IQ to contribute to a title are Marc Gasol and Andrew Bogut, but maybe not Dwight, and, unfortunately, almost certainly not JaVale.
So how can we make use JaVale’s improved post game? The main issue is to not let JaVale clog up the paint for too long. As long as he can establish deep inside position almost instantly, he can post up and not impede our other players. In other words, he needs to beat his man to the spot. Run down the floor in transition and set up. Most of all, pick and post. In the half court, he should be setting tons of picks and then beating the opponent’s C to the low block. Then let himself get pushed off the block and go set another pick and return to the block. Repeat.
Of course, if he has a great matchup, he can go to a traditional slow-developing post game. Philly rolls out Spencer Hawes. Injury troubled Boston starts Greg Stiemsma. Sure, post those guys up. But that will usually be the exception to the rule (especially when it really counts, in the playoffs) unless we can force the opponent to pull their starting C. The best way to make that happen? An unstoppable 1-5 pick and roll. If their starting C is too slow to hedge or gets into foul trouble, they could try going small. JaVale can use his post game to counter that move.
But the post game is just the final course. The meat and potatoes needs to be the pick and roll/post. I’ll be much more excited about JaVale’s improvement when we start seeing improvement in his picks.
by yop32 on Jan 18, 2012 2:55 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
good stuff
The value of a great post-up player is a) efficient scoring, and b) the effect he has on defenses.
Re: a) — McGee isn’t an efficient post-up scorer…yet. He misses too many free throws and he turns the ball over too much. He also hasn’t shown an ability to consistently hit a shot outside of 3 feet.
Re: b) — A great post-up scorer causes defenses to do stuff coaches prefer not to do — double-team, trap, rotate. That creates openings for others…BUT only if that post-up player can also pass to the open man. That’s something we have yet to see from McGee.
But, all of the forgoing is a bit premature, because McGee isn’t a “great” post-up scorer. He’s still at the “learning and trying stuff out” stage. Long ways to go.
by TheSecretWeapon on Jan 18, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
This is sad
Mcgee isnt complete but how can you decide whether he can anchor a team when he is only 23??? Giving up on a young talented player is a terrible mistake.
Don’t you guys remember when the bullets made smart moves like getting rid or R. Wallace, Rip Hamilton, C. Webber, and Ben Wallce. The core of the piston championship team was built from old bullets players
Now here we go again. Obviously since Mcgee has holes in his game at 23 we should get rid of him and watch him flourish on another team. I’m sick of this.
by samoka10 on Jan 18, 2012 2:56 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Please show me...
…where I suggested giving up on McGee.
by TheSecretWeapon on Jan 18, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Like it or not...
…the Wizards have to make some kind of decision regarding McGee after the season. My point is addressed to those who want McGee signed to an extension during the season. There’s just no reason to do that — especially given some of the warning signs about his game.
by TheSecretWeapon on Jan 18, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
I have no problem with them waiting
The clippers did it with DeAndre Jordan and the Hawks did it with Josh Smith. That’s a common practice. I just think its a mistake to give up on a guy who is getting better, especially when he plays next to a terrible power forward and a coach who has lost the locker room and can’t develop John Wall.
This is why Javale is so frustrating
He does some things extraordinarily well, and some things not so well. The things he doesn’t do well are all things that can be improved with work (weak side help, defensive positioning, boxing out, free throws), but he continues to show inconsistency. I grant that he has improved in some areas noticeably this year.
I like the idea of waiting to pay him rather than nailing him down early. If another team is going to make him a strong offer this summer, we should consider matching it. But he has too many holes in his game at the moment to bet the farm on his improvement and I’d be willing to let him go if someone offers him crazy money.
by Elvin_is_my_Elvis on Jan 18, 2012 2:57 PM EST reply actions
lol javale is no cwebb, rip hamilton, r. wallace….thats an insult to those players. If you ask any fan of other nba teams who know basketball what their opinion about javale is…
Im sure Ernie agrees with you
And when Javale is averaging 19 and 13 with 3 blocks on a playoff team and we’re headed to the lottery for like the 5th straigh time we’ll come back to this conversation
Next time make an article like this about Andray Blatche, or Nick Young, Jordan Crawford or dare I say it.....John Wall
Wall (except against Houston), Crawford, Blatche and Young have regressed, Mcgee has improved.
Because.....
its become way to popular to pick on mcgee this year even though hes playing better than anyone else on this team. He makes too many terrible mistakes but a coach who is a true leader or a veteran who is true could get him under control.
look javale
Im with you on young and blatche and crawford, this team needs a change, and to think the coaches have told him over and over and over again about his decision he makes just look on the sideline at flip and cassell….
I couldnt agree with you more
I just think you need to rid this team Young and Blatche and bring a coach who is a leader. If Javale still make these boneheaded moves then, then he has to go. IMHO
That’s just the issue. McGee has apparently improved, but has he really? His rebounding is better. He’s blocking more shots. He’s scoring more points. But, he’s scoring more by using more possessions less efficiently, he shows up in possession-by-possession tracking as the team’s worst defender, and the team has been far worse when he’s been on the floor. All that is worth keeping in mind moving forward.
by TheSecretWeapon on Jan 18, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
I understand that......
…….but did you see Blatche in the paint against Dalembert in the Houston game? Also is the offense is better and we don’t play soooo much 1 on 1 basket ball , Mcgee will get easier shots and his efficiency will go up .I’m not saying he Hakeem. But hes a 23 year old 7 footer with amazing athleticism, a decent jump hook and he clearly is try to get better.
Btw, do you think DeAndre Jordan is a better player?
Why are you so intent on changing the subjecct?
We’re not talking about Blatche or Young or Wall. Javale is a much more pressing issue than the likes of Young or Blatche because 1.)his contract is about to expire and 2.)because he is financially worth more than Blatche or Young by a ton.
It annoys me that you can’t criticize one player without five people dragging another player through the mud, around here. It doesn’t prove a point at all.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
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by returnofswagger on Jan 18, 2012 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I say extend him
If D..Jordan is worth big money than so is Mcgee. Trade Blatche away, trade Nick before the deadline and build around Wall and Mcgee.
Or trade everyone away and start over 2 years after you start over. I don’t there is a chance Wall resigns with us if let Mcgee go. Just my opinion though.
I don't think that's close to a universal opinion - at all
DeAndre Jordan is considered pretty one-dimensional, and has no low post offense responsibility with Griffin.
by Kenny Sky Walker on Jan 18, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
He doesn't need it
He is a complementary player. Griffin is the star. Now, use that model here. Do you really see McGee as the star, a la Griffin, or the complement? Personally, I see him as a complementary piece, without the benefit of a star player next to him. Hopefully, if we do extend him, we will add that player in the draft, so that we lessen McGee’s responsibilities. I’d like to see him fashion his game more around Tyson Chandler than Dwight Howard. I think that’s more realistic.
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
by CJHutch on Jan 18, 2012 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Dalembert abused McGee as well
Not just Blatche. He had McGee frustrated on both ends, which just led to McGee trying to go one on one more than he should.
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
Just by the eye test
I have seen him make improvement.
And I feel like this is the sub-idea of the article. Has he actually gotten better? I just think he has gotten much, much better. And the steps I see him taking lead me to believe he will keep taking strides. That’s why I’m ready to sign him. Because I am assuming he will keep getting smarter and better.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Jan 18, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It was a good article
If you don’t agree with it refute it with facts or respectfully disagree. It’s not like this article is the final word. No need to be so hostile to the writer or to engage in strawman arguments like above.
by BayAreaBullet on Jan 18, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec and agree
And thank you BAB.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Jan 18, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
i think because javale is the only entertaining player to watch
(wall can be but not really this year) on the team, his value and potential gets over-rated.
"hindsight is 50-50" - Steve Spurrier
by little stevie colter on Jan 18, 2012 3:07 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
entertaining...
does not win basketball games……high IQ players does
by WAAAAALL-E on Jan 18, 2012 3:12 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I like Javale
but when your 1-12 and losing games by twenty , you have to play the game the right way, that includes..ny, blatche and crawford
Good analysis, but I'd like a decision made relatively soon.
To often the front office is swayed by end of season production. They should know by now if McGee is a keeper, and cost shouldn’t be much of a factor.
All this is true
But the problem is, the author is not noticing the strides we have seen this season.
I know as well as anybody, the danger with a player like Javale is looking at the box score, and thinking he made a positive impact on the game. Thinking his four blocks means he played good D. Or seeing his 10 rebounds means he controlled the boards. When really he gave up a ton of points on easy layups because he was too anxious to get those blocks and really, the opposing starting center whether its Spencer Hawes or Dwight Howard grabbed 16 rebounds against him. Javale isn’t exactly dominant every night, even if he is statistically solid.
Furthermore, another problem on a team that is starting Javale McGee, is that they really are missing some of the substance that they need out of a starting C. Javale does still fail to box out. He doesn’t defend the P&R well. And even worse, he doesn’t play the P&R well offensively. And in a league driven by this simple play, and with a star at a position that makes up half of a P&R, in John Wall, it hurts that Javale can not set a proper screen. It hurts that he still doesn’t wait to deter the PG’s man, or roll to the hoop properly.
I spell out all of the negatives to clarify, I am definitely aware of the guy’s major deficiencies. But here’s the thing that has me ready to sign Javale McGee. Simply his improvement on those little things, this season.
Javale’s statistical improvement does serve as a little bit of a smokescreen to the things that he just does not do on the court. But he is improving on those little things as well. The boxing out, and recognizing rebounding as his responsibility has definitely improved. The biggest one is, I see him recognize much more often that lunging for the block is not the right play. He’s been staying at home better on D. Just showing a better understanding of where to be on defense and how to be more of a shot changing presence, rather than a low technology shot blocking missile often thrown off by a simple pump fake. So basically, I am comfortable with all of the improvement I have seen so far. I don’t think he is the same player he was last year. I think he is going to keep maturing and improving. One thing I am surprised by, is the -20 per 100 possessions. I’m interested to see if that corrects itself over the season, or if it does prove me wrong about the improvement I think I am watching.
I’m also fine with not paying Javale at all this summer, if the bidding gets too extreme. But I think you should show him interest now. Let him know you are looking to extend him. Because I see a bidding war getting out of hand this summer.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Jan 18, 2012 3:18 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
But the problem is, the author is not noticing the strides we have seen this season.
Sorry TheSecretWeapon, I meant to rephrase and delete that. Wanted to clarify since the rest of this crowd is so touchy today.
My point was, watching Javale’s play, there is noticeable improvement. Statistically, you covered those explanations pretty well. But he is getting better at the things that don’t directly show up on the stat sheet too.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Jan 18, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
Agree
I said yesterday I commend him for his improvement even if I don’t think he has come quite as far as others. He has definitely improved even if he still has a long, long ways to go in alot of areas that don’t show up in the box score. To be honest I have no idea what to make of him right now but thats not a real problem as I enjoy the process and seeing guys develop and don’t really have an agenda.
by BayAreaBullet on Jan 18, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
this is why Math geeks should stay outta sports
1 the Tim Duncan effect is overblown in the way he cuts off penetation. that part of the defense involves team defense there is a collective component to it the defense of a team has to operate on a string.If the guard is being lazy and doesn’t recover to his man and the big has to stay on the guard too long its gonna destroy the defense,
Goal tending is bad but there is no stat availabe to geek from to account for intimidation It was laughable in the Sixers game watching some of their forwards pump fake and pass the ball back out simply because he intimidates guys from coming down the lane on him has happened every game this season. Mcgee had Noah so frustrated it chased him outta the game.
I believe Mcgee’s plus minus is poor sometimes because he’s always viewed by lazy teammates as the no worries Mcgee will block their shot if my man gets by me how many times this season has someone penetrated the lane Mcgee comes over they kick it out to the perimeter as Wall and Young stand and watch a guy fire up a 3 pt shot because they simply quit too prematurely on defense assuming Mcgee would cover for them and allowed a guy to move into a wide open shooting area,
Good teams simply don’t defend that way.
Mcgee has not one other defensive stopper on the floor with him at all its either smaller pf’s like Booker or a lazy one in Blatche so he’s the interior defense,
free throw shooting is problematic his form is terrible its also whats bothering his jumper he pushes the ball he doesn;t use the one hand to extend on the shot which causes the shot to be erratic as he releases it so he probably works hard on it but he’s practicing the same poor form over and over again.
thats coaching,
Post moves he’s gotten better has a rolling hook I don’t really like but it works and has a good jump hook his right shoulder turn move is his best one he extends nicely on it and outquicks his man most times.
Turnovers are his fault but its a by product of the offense the Wizards run being a total mess there is no spacing no cutters so when he gets it if a team digs back he gets off balance and forces a shot again this is team related not just on him.
Mcgee is a blackhole offensively because he plays with a team full of them as Shaq says feed the big dog and he’ll protect the yard Mcgee does everything better when his selfish teammates give him touches alot of times as Flip says when Mcgee starts seeking out plays is when he gets into trouble gets it too far from the basket and goes on those swooping off balance layups and ill fated jumpers.
Teammates should give him the damn ball when he gets position and stop looking him off.
To me Mcgee’s main negative are
free throw shooting
unwillingness to pass out of the post or period
lack of focus rebounding he plays too straight up at times and get pushed under the basket and gives up offensive rebounds.
Mcgee is gonna get paid and gonna get paid big the market for active bigmen who block shots is tremendous.
The Wizards might save themselves money by signing Mcgee to an extension early the open market drives the price of bigmen pretty high.
there is no downside to it he’s active and productive he’ll always have trade value.
by jazzy1 on Jan 18, 2012 3:24 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Reading all this
Make me want to say don’t try and extend him.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Jan 18, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I'll take the math geek GM (say, Daryl Morey) over the sports jock GM (say, Michael Jordan)
Jazzy, you make some interesting points. In response to your point about team defense, are you saying that the rest of the team (specifically, the guards), play way way better defense when McGee is out of the game because they know that they don’t have him covering their backsides. That’s an interesting interpretation of the 16.5 point differential.
I think the very last team we need on this team
is the players taking advice for Shaquille O’Neal and demanding more touches. This is what landed us in this mess in the first place.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
by Sean Fagan on Jan 18, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Tim Duncan’s defense has been underrated if anything during his career. Of course team defense is important — good defense in the NBA requires teamwork. The point is that EVERY perimeter defender is going to get beat sometimes. Until he started slowing down the past couple seasons, Duncan was almost always in the right spot. Now, Popovich’s scheme helped in the sense that the perimeter defenders were asked to funnel penetration to certain spots where Duncan would be able to help. But, most teams run schemes based on similar principles, and the Spurs were the best for a decade.
As for the intimidation factor, there is a stat that gets at it. It’s opponent shooting percentage. If McGee’s shot-blocking intimidation is of value, then opponents should shoot worse when he’s in the game. I would also expect to see opponent turnovers rise because of players passing when they otherwise would shoot. According to data at 82games.com, opponents shoot an efg of 50.5% this season when McGee is on the floor vs. 47.7% when he’s sitting. There’s virtually no change in opponent turnovers (15 per 48 minutes when McGee is on the floor; 16 per 48 when he’s sitting).
Interestingly, Wizards TEAM blocks aren’t up much when McGee is in the game. When he’s on the floor, they’ve blocked 9% of opponent FGA; when he sits: 8%.
Last season, opponents shot slightly worse when McGee was on the floor. The season before that, there was no difference. Same for his rookie season.
I’m not saying McGee doesn’t intimidate opponents with his shot blocking. But there’s no evidence to support the notion that this intimidation does anything to help the team defense.
by TheSecretWeapon on Jan 19, 2012 9:35 AM EST up reply actions
javale..
has a year, I love his potential because what he can do, that being said I would love for him to pass out tof the post if he is being defended well, catch a offensive rebound and kick it back out. Free throws…is practice, practice, practice ask any shooter that
100% right
I hate that about Mcgee’s game too. He never passes out when he’s well defended or if he gets and offensive rebound. His basketball IQ is clearly low at this point. I wish the wiz would bring in someone like Kareem or Ewing to work with him.
also agree
Though I also think part of that is certain players on this team need to get him the ball in the post more. He doesn’t get fed enough, especially after a good play on the other end. If that starts happening regularly and he is still the black hole then you really need to come down on him. I wish him and some of our perimeter players would watch tape of Memphis’s run last year. Zach Randolph is a technician who knows how to get the ball in good spots but sometimes even he gets pushed out too far before he gets the ball. When he does he uses a power dribble or 2 to back his guy down to where you would ideally want to get the ball in the post and passes it out and gets it right back. Now you have the ball exactly where you want it and still have your dribble. This happened so many times during the playoffs. Right now McGee and alot of our perimeter players are not capable of that mentally. It’s especially important for McGee cuz too often(though not as much as last year) he jogs down the court and makes no effort to establish position close enough to the basket, allowing his defender to dictate where he catches the ball.
by BayAreaBullet on Jan 18, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
The best ability is availability
You never see McGee sitting out with sore knees quitting on his team. In fact he hasn’t missed a game due to injury in over 2 years.
Think of it this way, he is the only player in the Association averaging at least 12 pts, 10 rebs and 3 blocks and there is STILL much more he can do to improve. Why wouldn’t you extend this guy. True bullets/wizards fans have endured:
Pervis Ellison
Kevin Ducworth
Lorenzo WIlliams
Gitza
Ike Austin
Jahadi White
Brendan Haywood
Etan Thomas
Calvin Booth
Michael Ruffin
Now the franchise finally has a young center who isn’t overweight, disinterested or injury prone and it’s time to pump the brakes…YOU ARE TRIPPIN!!!
by el freako on Jan 18, 2012 3:46 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Because its still very debateable if he even produces positive results for his team.
If you don’t think he does, of course you argue not to jump the gun on resigning him.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Jan 18, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
I think you help
Make the man’s point for him. He isn’t saying NOT to resign McGee. He is saying look at ALL the variables, no just what shows up on Sportcenter, and make an intelligent decision. Your (awful) list shows how desperate we are for a top notch center. What he’s saying is don’t let that desperation cloud our judgement.
Personally, I think McGee is over rated around here. That doesn’t mean I’m saying get rid of him. I’m just tired of hearing about his “potential”. He’s been in the league for four years, and he still makes rookie mistakes. I’d like to see it coached out of him, yeah. But I wouldn’t be heartbroken if we traded him for a more solid post player.
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
by CJHutch on Jan 18, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
don't forget
Muresan and Popeye
Vinny & Zorn....Boudreau....Riggleman....Addition By Subtraction.
by FireFLIP on Jan 18, 2012 4:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Muresan could play some...
His ankles were not going to hold up indeifinitely (thank you Billy Crystal for hastening their collapse) but his numbers and game changing ability at center between Webber and Howard were really impressive.
I will grant you that the Bullets have only had one truly great center, and it is doubtful that we will ever see a man with better rebound positioning and outlet passing skills than Wes Unseld, but McGee is a damn sight better than anyone we have seen at the 5 since the 1993-94 version of Georghe Muresan. You cannot tell me his potential upside is not greater than Brendan Haywood’s, and we went with ’Wood for a LONG time.
I agree with Kevin’s analysis that there is no reason to rush to resign him, and supect we will go the DeAndre Jordan route and let us see how the market defines his value before deciding whether to make the commitment to JaVale.
But this franchise owes it itself, to say nothing of JaVale, to provide him the coaching he needs to get back his early FT touch (I don’t see anything horrrifically wrong or uncorrectable in his technique), learn some pick-roll fundmentals and be given the type and freqeuncy of touches that will make him more consistently successful in game situations. Right now he is getting negative feedback and incentive to grow here, and I think that this goes back to the type of cultural issues raised in other posts.
by khrabb on Jan 18, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I'm so glad there is a game in almost 3 hours
I’m getting kinda tired of the Javale talk. Tonight will bring something new to talk about like Young going for 40 or 4-17, or Blatche going shooting at his own basket to get a double-double. Or (my real pipe dream) Flip’s last game as a Wizards coach.
by SkinsWizStangs on Jan 18, 2012 3:55 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Two words
Fire Flil
Vinny & Zorn....Boudreau....Riggleman....Addition By Subtraction.
by FireFLIP on Jan 18, 2012 4:09 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Fire Flip
Vinny & Zorn....Boudreau....Riggleman....Addition By Subtraction.
by FireFLIP on Jan 18, 2012 4:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Thanks for the clarification because we all had no idea where you stand on the issue.
by MR on Jan 18, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
oh I'm sorry
Ernie too
Vinny & Zorn....Boudreau....Riggleman....Addition By Subtraction.
by FireFLIP on Jan 18, 2012 4:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, I think we've gotten your schtick
Either contribute or stop.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
ooooooookkkkkkkk
Got it Pops.
Vinny & Zorn....Boudreau....Riggleman....Addition By Subtraction.
by FireFLIP on Jan 18, 2012 4:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't get it - what should we do?
by Kenny Sky Walker on Jan 18, 2012 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
I guess we should probably fire Flip for starters...
Maybe the demoralizing pasting we are about to get from OKC will hasten this decision, who knows?
I think all of this points to a problem in the system.
Players turning pro SO much earlier than they should take SO long to develop that teams don’t even know what they have when it’s time for the second contract.
If the Golden State Warriors are willing to pay $7 million
for the services of Kwame Brown for a one-year rental surely the Wizards should qualify McGee for half that price.
by el freako on Jan 18, 2012 4:12 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Where was anyone implying that they shouldn't qualify McGee?
by BayAreaBullet on Jan 18, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
I realize this is simply a cautionary write up
But chew on this…how bad would this team be if McGee were out 5 weeks with a broken hand. The paint would basically need a red carpet for all the glamour guards slashing to the hole.
by el freako on Jan 18, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Well, they're 1-12 with him
So if he’s out for 25 games, my guess is 3-37.
by Elvin_is_my_Elvis on Jan 18, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Had a similar conversation...
…with a guy over at RealGM when Blatche was out. With Blatche, the Wiz were the worst offensive team in the league, lowest shooting percentage, fewest assists, worst defensive rebounding. What’s worse than worst? Worstest?
With McGee, the Wizards have earned the 22nd ranked defense. And the team defense has actually been better when he’s been on the bench (which may not be caused by him — it could be that he’s been part of bad lineups, and it could be that he’s faced tougher competition since he usually faces starters).
by TheSecretWeapon on Jan 19, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
We are where we are
To make a decision on McGee or any other player, the Wiz need to take stock where they are and where they are going.
In short, without having an improved Javale McGee on the roster in two to three years, the Wiz will be next to nowhere. The reason I say that is because they will need to fill in all four starters (other than the PG) with quality players, which is a near impossibility for any GM let alone one who hasn’t delivered much of anything. Moreover, without quality players, they will lose Wall.
Hence, I would counsel Mr. Ted to shake some sense into his management team and get somebody who can coach Javale and get him to sign a contract.
It would be easier to replace Young at SG than McGee at center, but even that will be difficult because the higher priorities should be a shooter at the 3 and a banger at the 4. In fact, even if they keep Wall, McGee and Young, it will be difficult for the Wiz to get stars at the 3 and 4. However, if they start to lock down the pieces, the end result will become more attainable.
Every human has flaws and needs coaching. Great coaches see the potential in people and know how to get it out of them. Similarly, they see where the star potential is lacking such as with Seraphin and move onto other priorities.
Ted needs a GM and coach that have a sound vision for success and can take the team there.
What often seems overlooked in these discussions....
Is why would McGee even think of signing anything right now unless it was an offer for more money than any other team could afford? It’s gotta be in his best interest to take it to the open market unless given an astronomically huge offer. I would bet serious money the Warriors will offer him the most they possibly can. You gotta think his agent is thinking the same thing with so many teams(Bos, Dal, others) purposely structuring their rosters to have an abundance of cap space this summer.
There seems to be the belief out there that if we act now we can sign him to below market value. I’m skeptical he would sign anything that wasn’t clearly more than what he could possibly find on the market.
The open market is not available - he's a RFA
by Kenny Sky Walker on Jan 18, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
RFA allows you to accept offers from all teams
and with the new CBA is much more viable than in the past. RFA didn’t stop D. Jordan from getting a huge offer from the Warriors. So many teams have cap space this summer it’s tough for me to see any legit agent advising McGee to accept below market deal before this summer. For a guy to accept early he has to be getting the max or getting as much as more than they think they can get in the summer.
by BayAreaBullet on Jan 18, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Get rid of him!
We always get rid of players who develop into extremely valuable talented players. Why not keep the trend going! Matter fact let all our good players go, that’s what the Wizards are good for recruiting great players and instilling hope that they may walk away from the miserable Wizards one day to help a championship team.
by Unxpekted on Jan 18, 2012 4:28 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I dont agree with this article at all. Javale is obviously improving. it seems as if we are just trying to find dumb excuses to say hes not. Come on now we are tracking his goaltending rate now lol? he may need to mature and bulk up a bit but i believe hes been playing excellent defense. We should give our players more praise. Why would he want to play for a team where the fans dont support? If we dont watch out we are gonna lose wall and mcgee
by digital88s on Jan 18, 2012 4:29 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I seriously don't understand how anyone who actually watches the games
can say that McGee is playing “excellent defense”. I also still find it hilarious that people seriously think Javale is the best player on this team.
Well, if it's about numbers, there's one you're missing.
That’s PER. McGee’s this year is 20. That’s highest on the team. It puts him as the #10 C in rank, ahead of Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Horford and Duncan, among others.
His PER is significantly up from last year, too. If 15 is an average player, as Hollinger says, JaVale, by that metric, is clearly an above-average player.
Does he still do boneheaded things? You bet. I’m frustrated, too, by his incremental improvement. But maybe that’s who he is. As long as he’s improving, and not going backwards — as PER seems to suggest — I say resign him ASAP. Don’t break the bank, but don’t lose a solid C for nothing, either.
you make a good point
And I personally think he has improved but in fairness to the writer PER doesn’t even attempt to quantify defense which is something the writer is trying to address. I.E. his box score production(what PER measures) has increased but there are some red flags that should be taken into consideration when analyzing his improvement.
by BayAreaBullet on Jan 18, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
PER doesn't distinguish between legit stats and selfish stats
Most fans and probably JaVale himself can’t distinguish the difference either.
Selfishness isn’t an issue when comparing, say, KG vs Tim Duncan, so it does a pretty decent job there.
by yop32 on Jan 18, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So we're going to pick and choose stats, highlighting the ones that support...
Our argument and dismissing those that don’t? The stats, taken as a whole, show that McGee is progressing, while still struggling mightily in some areas.
But stats, combined with the evidence of my eyes, show a player that stays at home more on defense, doesn’t go for pump fakes like he used to, and has a better awareness of where he needs to be.
by YellaFella on Jan 18, 2012 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think you are distorting the writers argument a bit.
Off the bat he acknowledges the box score improvement(PER) and even states “He has otherworldly physical ability, and I’ve seen signs of development when I watch the games. I think he’s getting better.” He starts from your same position and then notes there are some troubling signs when analyzing things beyond PER that raise some serious question marks. I think he might not be the one who is really picking and choosing stats.
by BayAreaBullet on Jan 18, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Wrong. His argument is exclusively stats-based.
My argument is that cherry-picking stats can lead to any conclusion you want.
So to counteract his argument
you simply cherry pick stats to lead to your conclusion….?
by ElixCash on Jan 18, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree with your argument about cherry picking
I just feel that your the one cherry picking. His point seems to be that there are signs and stats that point to him being improved and signs and stats undermining that improvement so be cautious. Yours seems to be PER shows improvement therefore that is the truth and dismiss the other stats out of hand while impugning(unfairly in my mind) his objectivity and credibility.
It’s funny to me because this article has so many qualifiers and acknowledges other points of view quite alot for anything written on this site. Yet even while bending over backward to present facts in a balanced and open minded view he still gets savaged, mostly with strawman arguments. Not a good sign for those who value the content put out on this site. We will just have to respectfully disagree on this Yella with an emphasis on respectfully.
by BayAreaBullet on Jan 18, 2012 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Then you're not reading carefully enough.
I have all kinds of qualifiers, too. I said (unlike the original post) that some stats showed improvement, while others showed regression. And I never impugned anyone’s objectivity or credibility. I disagreed with his argument in this case. Nothing more, nothing less.
Yeah
PER is the exact thing Javale’s supporters can run too, and the exact thing this article suggests caution of. But it just doesn’t tell the whole story with this type of player.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Jan 18, 2012 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
PER is okay...
…as an approximate value measure. I use it sometimes when I want a broad-brush overall measure. But, as Mike points out, it does a poor job with defense. And, the way it’s designed, a player can boost his PER by shooting more frequently — whether the ball goes in or not. I forget where the break-even point is for shooting more, but if I recall correctly it’s just south of 30%. In other words, a player can increase his PER by shooting more often if he shoots ~30% or better.
So, when you look at the numbers that go into PER, McGee’s rebounds and blocks are up. He’s also shooting more frequently and committing more turnovers. His offensive rating is now at 97 points per 100 possessions — which is awful.
by TheSecretWeapon on Jan 19, 2012 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
Mcgee
I really think people have to face the cold hard truth, a player like Mcgee needs a strong group of veterans around him to reach his full potential.(On a side not this is really key. Javale Mcgee is worth much more to a team like the Celtics who have the veteran’s to keep him in line.) The Wizards instead of having a strong group of veterans to help Mcgee, have a bunch of veteran’s who probably hurt his growth and coach who acts like his baby sitter.
To do a rebuild like the Wizards are attempting, you need strong character mentally tough guys to create the mental foundation of the team. OKC went through the same thing were going through. They started a season 3-29, except OKC had Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Russell Westbrook. They also had veterans like Nick Collison to keep the young guys on the right path.
Mcgee will not reach his full potential on a team like this. We are probably better off trading Mcgee getting some value back in return, and going after a guy like Roy Hibbert in the off-season.
I’ve been an advocate of trading McGee for a while now, because I think we could get some value for him. He’s a freak athlete, and puts up some good numbers (the debatable numbers aside), which means he will require a decent return. Even better value if he would agree to a sign and trade. I think we could get a good young player out of it — maybe Cousins, maybe a 2012 lotto pick, someone not even in the discussion but could come available for a veteran team that could use a shot-blocking center. If we could get a strong, less mobile, rebounding center in return, he might match up very well with Vesely in the future, for example. There are a lot of other possibilities I would think.
The subtext of all of it is that I don’t think Vale really wants to stay here. He and Nick are cinnamon-snorting friends, fer crying out loud, and I think most of us know Nick hates this team. Trade ’em both!
by Tbonebullets on Jan 18, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
Trades
Webber for Mitch Ritchmond
Rasheed Wallace for Rod Strickland
Rip Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse
Ben Wallace for Ike Austin
I’m tired of us trading our young talent because we get impatient. We always get swindled. Atleast half this board is ready to get swindled again. I’m going to predict the future.
Javale will sign a contract with Golden State like DeAndre Jordan did, the Wizards won’t match it. Then we will all be on the boards crying next year when Mcgee is tearing it up over there and someone will write “why didn’t he do that here?” like they always do.
Flawed logic
If your swami-like prediction is correct that JaVale bolts next year, then it is better to trade him now for something rather than nothing. Secondly, our demonstrably poor trade record does not mean that our next trade will definitely suck. Plus, even if our trade record is relevant, at least one was pretty good (and that was before Ted’s arrival).
You may also believe that we SHOULD sign him for $11M per year. I would disagree, but that’s another subject.
by Tbonebullets on Jan 18, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Vesely is pretty big
and he is a doing a pretty good job of defending for a player who just started to play in the NBA. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wiz balked on giving McGee money because Vesely can play center. How much are they paying him? Give McGee the qualifier and groom Vesely one more season and its goodbye McGee.
by hambonejackson on Jan 18, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You trust our scouts more than I do....Plus i forgot 1.....
5th pick (Ricky Rubio) for Randy Foye and Mike Miller
You trust people who make decision like this? I don’t
I disagree
but first let me say, great article. No place better than BF for this kind of information.
I like and agree with the advance stats. They will no doubt be critical to the Wizards getting leverage in a contract negotiations with McGee.
But sometimes keeping it simple is good enough. McGee has improved his points, rebounds, and blocks (I think) for three straight years. Hard to see how that does not qualify as improvement.
stats
The stats provided are necessarily a function of how Javelle isn’t incorporated into the offense. Building a case with such numbers is OK, but the writer should watch the game once in a while to see where Mr Flip positions him.
Regardless of what happens the rest of the year, i.e. “try to lock him up” I believe he will leave in order to get away from Flip.
Umm....
…as it turns out, the writer has watched every minute of every game this season.
by TheSecretWeapon on Jan 19, 2012 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
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