On Ernie's Drafts, Grotesques, and Overvaluing Talent

Ernie G took the reins of the Wizards on 30 June 2003. The goal of this piece is to dispel a myth about Ernie---that his drafts have sucked---while examining some truths about his tenure.

Myth: Ernie has drafted like a dolt

Let's start with last year's first round pick, John Wall. This was a no-brainer: everyone in the NBA would have picked Wall, and he was the best 2010 draftee in the 2010-2011 season. No credit or blame for Ernie on this one.

Now let's split Ernie's other picks into groups:

• High 1st Round Picks: Vesely (6-2011)
• Intermediate 1st Round Picks: Singleton (18-2011), Seraphin (17-2010), Booker (23-2010), McGee (18-2008), Young (16-2007), Pecherov (18-2006).
• Second Round Picks: Mack (34-2011), McGuire (47-2007), Veremeenko (48-2006), Blatche (49-2005), Ramos (32-2004).

I've never seen Vesely play a single game (in either college or the NBA; I don't watch the Euro league), so I'm going to pass on judging him. Ernie has done a nice job with intermediate 1st round picks. The only confirmed dud is Pecherov, while the other five all have their uses (more on this later). This is a good record considering where these players were picked---the middle of the first round is a tough place to draft.

The second round picks are okay. Blatche may not be that great, but he represents good value for a second round pick. Ramos and Veremeenko were stiffs. McGuire was feisty bunch presence. Mack could be an acceptable backup point guard, which ain't saying all that much, but what do you expect in the second round?

A fair assessment of Ernie's draft record is to say that he got good value given his draft slots.

Truth: Ernie has a predilection for grotesques

Look again at the list of 1st round picks. They share a common characteristic: they are very good at a few things, and awful at others. Part of this is a consequence of picking in the middle of the first round a lot---by that time, the well-rounded guys are often gone. But Ernie has acquired grotesques in a variety of ways. Here are some examples of grotesque Wizards, past and present:

• Nick Young (my favorite Wizard): Young can defend and score efficiently. He cannot pass or rebound. At all.
• Javale McGee: Runs the floor beautiful (when not dribbling), finishes at the rim, blocks shots. He can't shoot, he has a limited post game, he doesn't rebound well, and he is not a strong defensive presence.
• Chris Singleton: Great defender. His offensive game is lacking, particularly the ability to shoot from distance (which, alas, is a handy skill for a defensive specialist).
• John Wall: Explosive offensive talent, good passer. Can't defend or shoot.
• Antawn Jamison: Great (and unorthodox) scorer, good rebounder. Can't defend.
• Andray Blatche: Good rebounder, skilled for a big man, decent shooter. On the downside...well, really, his work speaks for itself.

Don't get me wrong: grotesques have value. They just have to be paired with another player who can cover for their weaknesses. The members of the Wizards current crew fail to complement one another, and so they look terrible while having value. Which is pretty frustrating for fans.

Some of this is Ernie's fault, but some of it is also a consequence of being neither good enough or bad enough. When you have the 17th pick, finding a good player is hard enough without also having to pick a complement to your current players.

Truth: Ernie's real problems have been overvaluing his players and bad luck

Andray Blatche was a fine second round pick. Ernie's mistake has been thinking that he is more than that.

Ernie traded the 5th pick in the 2009 draft to make a title run with a team led by Arenas, Jamison, and Butler. Enough said.

Ernie traded the 5th pick for Antawn Jamison. I love Antawn, but he creates as many problems for his own team as he does for its opponent.

So far as bad luck is concerned, Arenas's knee injury was a devastating blow. Ditto Caron's injury problems.

Truth: The Wizards should start over

The Wizards current roster is a mess: full of players with some skills that don't mesh into a team. The GM, whomever it may be, has to identify the pieces that can fit together, strip away the others, and look for reinforcements. Next year's draft should be a strong one, so that will help.

If I were in charge, I'd keep Wall and pair him with a shooting guard who can defend and shoot. Singleton and Vesely should be given a chance to show that they are the answer at small forward, though I'd really prefer a small forward who can shoot from distance. Either the power forward or center has to be a defensive presence. If such a player is available in the draft at power forward, keep McGee; otherwise, it is time to move on at both positions. Mack, Booker, Crawford, and Seraphin can stay around as bench players (McGee too until he becomes too expensive). Nick would be an ideal bench player, but he wants to get paid, so he is gone.